Wimbledon Day 11 Preview and Picks
By Ricky Dimon
(2) RAFAEL NADAL (-165) VS. (4) ANDY MURRAY (+125)
Nadal went to five sets in rounds two and three, but he blasted Paul-Henri Mathieu in straights to reach the quarterfinals and beat Robin Soderling in four to book his spot in this semifinal showdown. Roger Federer was also coming off two stellar performances when he laid an egg against Tomas Berdych, but I don’t see Nadal suffering the same fate. The world No. 1 has been by far the most consistent player on tour since April and he—and his knees – are only getting better as the tourney progresses.
But don’t sleep on Murray, who would definitely be my pick to reach the final if he was in the other half of the draw. The fourth-ranked Scot didn’t lose a set in his first four matches and after playing two tiebreak sets against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on Wednesday, he hammered the Frenchman 6-2, 6-2.
Unfortunately for Murray, he does not have the game that works best against Nadal (which is huge, flat hitting). Murray is more of a counter-puncher, and that’s not the way to beat Nadal. Not surprisingly, the Spaniard leads their head-to-head series 7-3 and their only previous Wimbledon encounter in 2008 was a blowout in Nadal’s favor.
Pick: Nadal in 4 sets
(3) NOVAK DJOKOVIC (-125) VS. (12) TOMAS BERDYCH (-105)
Djokovic has won both of their previous encounters in easy straight sets, but these two have not faced each other since the spring of 2009. I can’t stress it enough that this is a new Tomas Berdych we are seeing in 2010.
Having never been one to pull off any kind of big win, Berdych stunned Federer in Miami, reached the French Open semifinals, and then—on Wednesday—toppled Federer again in the Wimbledon quarterfinals. This Czech is on fire, and he has a game that works perfectly on grass courts.
On the other hand, grass is Djokovic’s worst surface (granted, he is pretty much outstanding on hard and clay). He made it to the Wimbledon semis once before and he has done well to do it again this year. Let’s not pretend, though, that Djokovic didn’t get extremely lucky by playing Yen-Hsun Lu in the quarterfinals instead of Andy Roddick.
The Serb’s win over Lleyton Hewitt was impressive, but whereas Djokovic dictates play against Hewitt, Berdych will dictate play against Djokovic. I think Berdych will control the outcome of this match, and considering his recent form, he is not likely to let this opportunity go by the wayside.
Pick: Berdych in 5 sets