Wimbledon Day 5 Preview and Picks
By Ricky Dimon
(16) JURGEN MELZER (-175) VS. (22) FELICIANO LOPEZ (+120)
Lopez beat Rafael Nadal at Queen’s Club two weeks, but it has been a struggle since then for the Spaniard. He got blown out by Mardy Fish in his next match, retired in Eastbourne with a shoulder injury, and has done well to battle through the physical problems to still be alive at Wimbledon. Lopez took multiple injury timeouts (shoulder) in a four-set win over Ricardas Berankis on Wednesday.
But let’s not pretend that is the only reason why Melzer should get through this match. The Austrian, having never previously been past the third round of any Grand Slam, made it all the way to the French Open semis. So far at Wimbledon he has dismissed two tough competitors in Dustin Brown and Viktor Troicki. Make no mistake about it: Melzer is playing the best tennis of his career at 29 years old.
Pick: Melzer in 4 sets
PARLAY: (15) LLEYTON HEWITT (-300) VS. (21) GAEL MONFILS (+200) and FLORIAN MAYER (-300) VS. YEN-HSUN LU (+200)
While the seedings suggest Hewitt vs. Monfils should be a barnburner that won’t be the case. Hewitt is a master on grass and he recently upset Roger Federer in Halle. Monfils’ game works much better on clay and he has (what’s new?) been dealing with injury issues throughout the season.
Mayer has been an upset specialist so far this week, taking out Marin Cilic and Fish (Fish is generally outstanding on grass). Lu took advantage of a section of the draw vacated by Ivan Ljubicic, but it looks like his luck has run out with Mayer in this kind of form.
Pick: Hewitt in 4 sets and Mayer in 4 sets
(31) VICTOR HANESCU (-125) VS. DANIEL BRANDS (-115)
This is Hanescu’s third appearance in the third round of Wimbledon, and he looks poised for what would be somewhat of a breakthough for him. He has achieved his best results on hard courts, but at 6’6’’, Hanescu and his big serve are going well on grass this week.
Brands is a relative no-name, but he cannot be underestimated. The 6’5’’ German, ranked No. 98 in the world, also owns a big serve and he used it well to upset both Igor Andreev and Nikolay Davydenko. Still, both of those Russians have dealt with serious injury problems of late. And Brands had never won a main-draw match at a Grand Slam prior to this Wimbledon. Asking him to win three in one week would be too much.
Pick: Hanescu in 5 sets
(15) YANINA WICKMAYER (-120) VS. (21) VERA ZVONAREVA (-120)
First thing’s first: taking action on Zvonareva is always risky because she is a head case of the highest order. Her meltdown at last year’s U.S. Open against Flavia Pennetta was the stuff of legends. Still, she is the smart play in this one. Zvonareva has been to the Wimbledon fourth round twice and she is looking poised to go there again. The Russian lost only 10 total games (and no sets) in her first two victories.
This also has a lot to do with Wickmayer, who has not reached the third round of any tournament since the Miami event in March. The Belgian had arthroscopic elbow surgery prior to the French Open, won only two games against Kim Clijsters last week in Eastbourne, and is lucky just to still be around at Wimbledon. Her first match was a tight three-setter and the second ended 7-6(9), 6-4 against Kirsten Flipkens.
Pick: Zvonareva in 2 sets