Wimbledon Day 6 Preview and Picks
By RICKY DIMON
(2) RAFAEL NADAL (-7.5 GAMES) VS. (33) PHILIPP PETZSCHNER
Nadal is coming off a surprising five-setter against Robin Haase while Petzschner went the five-set distance in each of his first two matches. Nadal, however, spent only two hours and 22 minutes on court in dismissing big-serving Robin Haase in five. Petzschner going to three sets with both Stephane Robert and Lukasz Kubot, on the other hand, is cause for concern.
Nadal and Petzschner have faced each other twice previously, with the top-ranked Spaniard winning in straight sets both times. Grass is the German’s best surface, and while winning a set is not out of the question, he has been known for mental lapses in matches. Even one mental hiccup will allow Nadal to cover 7.5 games.
Pick: Nadal (-7.5 games)
(32) JULIEN BENNETEAU (-250) VS. FABIO FOGNINI (+175) and (18) SAM QUERREY (-350) VS. XAVIER MALISSE (+225)
Fognini has done extremely well to reach the Wimbledon third round, especially with a win over Fernando Verdasco. But let’s not forget that this guy is a clay-court specialist and he needed five sets to get past fellow clay-courter Michael Russell in round two. This could be a bit of a grass-court lesson given by Benneteau.
Querrey just took care of Malisse 6-3, 7-5 at Queen’s Club and there is no reason to think anything different will happen Saturday. Malisse went to five sets in his first match and had a bit of a struggle with unknown Julian Reister in round two. He’s not going to beat Querrey in a best-of-five match on grass.
Pick: Benneteau in 4 sets and Querrey in 4 sets (parlay)
(4) ANDY MURRAY (-6.5 GAMES) VS. (26) GILLES SIMON
Simon has won just three matches this season (in eight tries) mainly due to knee problems that have troubled him since last year’s French Open. The Frenchman won his first two of 2010 last week in Eastbourne, but he then got blown out by Michael Llodra.
Simon has had a favorable draw at Wimbledon, getting unknown Guillermo Alcaide in round one before advancing past Ilya Marchenko via walkover. This is where the luck ends. Murray has trounced both Jan Hajek and Jarkko Nieminen, the latter in front of the Queen of England. Doesn’t sound like the Queen is making it back on Saturday, but this should be a king-sized rout.
Pick: Murray (-6.5 games)
(31) ALEXANDRA DULGHERU (+120) VS. KAIA KANEPI (-163)
Kanepi has had things in cruise control so far at the All-England Club. She qualfied without dropping a set and now finds herself in the third round of the main draw, still not having losing a set. In the first round Kanepi stunned French Open runner-up Samantha Stosur.
The Estonian also qualified at Roland Garros (reached the second round) and earlier this month in Birmingham (reached the quarterfinals), so her confidence is sky high right now. Dulgheru has not yet been troubled, but she also hasn’t faced a big hitter like Kanepi.
Pick: Kanepi in 3 sets