Wimbledon Day 9 Preview and Picks
By Ricky Dimon
(2) RAFAEL NADAL (-175) VS. (6) ROBIN SODERLING (+145)
I had Soderling winning this one when I filled out an entire bracket prior to the tournament, and while I don’t like to flip-flop, Monday’s results are concerning. Soderling needed five sets to edge David Ferrer, whom the Swede should normally handle with ease on grass. Nadal put to rest any questions about his knees by slamming Paul-Henri Mathieu in straight sets.
The world No. 1 is 4-2 lifetime against Soderling and their recent French Open final was not competitive. Obviously grass is a lot different than clay, but the surface is playing relatively slow and it will give Nadal a much better chance than—say—hard courts.
Pick: Nadal in 5 sets
(3) NOVAK DJOKOVIC VS. YEN-HSUN LU (OVER/UNDER 35.5 GAMES)
I wouldn’t touch any play that pertains to the specific outcome of the match because Djokovic is too much of a question mark right now. His breathing problem remains an issue even though he fought through it to beat Lleyton Hewitt in four sets. Even at 100 percent, Djokovic went to five sets with Olivier Rochus in round one.
The only relatively safe action in this one is on the total number of games. Djokovic is not in good enough shape to completely destroy Lu, who was on fire against Andy Roddick. Nor will Lu, in his first Grand Slam quarterfinal, have enough firepower to wipe the floor with Djokovic. Expect a tight, four-setter, if not five.
Pick: Over 35.5 games
(4) ANDY MURRAY (-4.5 GAMES) VS. (10) JO-WILFRIED TSONGA
Taking the over/under on games (which is at 38.5) is risky because Tsonga is so hit or miss. The Frenchman has never been a force on grass and he is making his first appearance in the Wimbledon quarterfinals. At the same time, he has all the talent in the world and could conceivably take Murray deep into a fifth set.
Even if Murray does go four or five, though, he should cover the 4.5-game spread. Tsonga’s return of serve is atrocious and that means Murray should hold with ease on a consistent basis. The Scot should be able to run away with one or two sets here and there, so even if he loses one or two, the spread will be covered.
Pick: Murray -4.5 games
(1) ROGER FEDERER VS. (12) TOMAS BERDYCH (OVER/UNDER 3.5 SETS)
Will Federer win this one in straight sets? That is the question. On one hand, he overcame first and second-round struggles by blowing out both Arnaud Clement and Jurgen Melzer. On the other hand, Berdych has been on fire this season and upset Federer at the Sony Ericsson Open.
With Federer still in somewhat questionable form (by his standards), asking him to straight-set Berdych—on grass—is unreasonable. There simply won’t be enough service breaks and Federer has not exactly been lethal in tiebreakers of late. If you want to assume a long match, other decent plays include over 37.5 games and Federer winning more than 20.5 games himself, but over 3.5 sets is the safest option.
Pick: Over 3.5 sets