Wimbledon Men’s Final Preview and Pick
By Ricky Dimon
(2) RAFAEL NADAL (-4.5 GAMES) VS. (12) TOMAS BERDYCH (+4.5 GAMES)
It’s not Rafael Nadal vs. Roger Federer, but this Wimbledon final could be the next best thing: Nadal vs. the man who beat Federer—Tomas Berdych.
Also promising—at least for those who hope to see a scorcher of a title match—is that Nadal and Berdych are both in ridiculous form. Berdych had a few scares during Week 1, but he made surprisingly light work of Federer in the quarterfinals and erased Novak Djokovic in straight sets on Friday.
Don’t think for a second that this is any kind of fluke for the 24-year-old Czech. A completely new player in 2010, Berdych also upset Federer in Miami and reached the French Open semis (was one set away from the final).
Unfortunately for Berdych, he doesn’t appear to be catching Nadal at the right time. Like his opponent, Nadal faced some serious adversity during the first week of the tournament. He twice came back from two sets to one down and also battled through apparent knee trouble against Philipp Petzschner. But after dismissing an in-form Robin Soderling in the quarters, the Spaniard disposed of Andy Murray in a straight-set semi.
Also of great concern to Berdych and his backers is his head-to-head series with Nadal. It’s 7-3 in Nadal’s favor, and if that sounds familiar, well, Nadal also led Murray 7-3 prior their semifinal match. Berdych actually led 3-1 at one point (late in 2006), but Nadal has won six in a row and has won on all three surfaces in that span (including a straight-setter in the 2007 Wimbledon quarters). The world No. 1 is an overwhelming 14-0 in sets against Berdych in their last six matches.
As such, taking action on Nadal to win 3-0 at +175 is a solid value play, and under 38.5 games is also a decent option. However, as stated before, this is a new Berdych—even a new Berdych since these two last faced each other this spring in Indian Wells. The world No. 13 is playing great and has the aggressive power game (unlike Murray’s counter-punching tactics) that generally gives Nadal the most trouble.
The safest play is Nadal -4.5 games. He has won seven Grand Slam titles (including Wimbledon in 2008), while Berdych has never even been to a final. Berdych should handle the occasion better than Vera Zvonareva handled it against Serena Williams, but all signs point to another Nadal triumph.
Pick: Nadal -4.5 games