Germany vs. France Betting Preview and Pick
By: Hugh Wilson
Goal.com
Germany and France both struggled in their second round World Cup matches, with Didier Deschamps' side scoring two goals in the last 10 minutes to beat Nigeria in a match that saw plenty of chances. Joachim Low's team needed extra time to battle past a spirited Algeria team that could have caused a huge upset, as they had a goal ruled out for offside and missed plenty of chances. Goals at the start and end of extra time secured the win, despite a late Algerian goal.
France come into this quarterfinal match with a strong scoring record in the competition. Deschamps' side have netted 10 goals in their four matches so far, netting five against Switzerland in the group stages. With only one defeat in their last 15 matches, Les Bleus will fancy their chances against a German side who haven't been firing on all cylinders. The LVH SuperBook prices France at +210 odds to win within 90 minutes plus injury time and at +120 to win outright and advance to the semifinals.
Germany know they need to up their game after not yet eclipsing their first performance in the competition, where they beat Portugal 4-0.
Since then, Low's men have drawn with Ghana and just managed to beat USA. The Algerian result will not help their confidence either, with many expecting them to win by a few goals. The LVH prices them as favorites at +140 odds to win the match in regulation and -140 to advance.
Odds are +220 that a draw forces overtime.
With a tight match in-store, expect few goals in this quarterfinal with so much at stake for both sides. The UNDER 2.5 goals bet would have been worth investing in, but the -135 price at William Hill U.S. and CG Technology is a little skinny. In the knockout matches so far in the competition, we have seen few goals, with all teams aware eager to remain in the World Cup.
In the opening halves of both sides last two matches, we have yet to see a goal. The halftime scoreline to be 0-0 at 13-to-8 odds outside of Las Vegas is the play, with another tight opening in the pipeline. Both sides will be fully aware of all the threats either team has to offer, so expect the sides to take 45 minutes to settle in the match and wait until the second half to come out of their shells.
Applying the same theories at the SuperBook in Vegas, you can bet UNDER 1 first-half goal. While you have to lay -155 juice to make that wager, there’s insurance against a 1-0 halftime scoreline, which would result in a push.
Brazil vs. Colombia Betting Preview and Pick
By: Phil Kitromilides
Goal.com
This South American World Cup sees two of the continent's best sides meet in the quarter final as Brazil take on Colombia (4 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The hosts have hitherto been disappointing, with only a combination of woodwork and good goalkeeping seeing them through a tense penalty shootout with Chile in the last round.
Colombia, meanwhile, have arguably been the form side of the tournament and swept aside Uruguay in last 16 as they did to their three previous opponents in the competition.
This therefore could be an extremely tight contest and given what we have seen so far Brazil are unlikely to have things their own way.
The LVH SuperBook, however, does make them the clear favorites at -120 odds to win in 90 minutes, while Colombia are offered at +320 and the draw can be backed at +270.
The round of 16 saw plenty of tight games with seven out of the eight matches contested level at halftime. A repeat in this last eight clash is offered at 11-to-10 outside of Vegas and is a price well worthy of consideration.
This match will be tight and it seems highly unlikely that either side will be able to take a clear advantage into the break.
While Brazil will be under pressure to come out and attack, more important is that they do not lose, so expect perhaps a somewhat cautious opening 45 minutes.
The price of 15-to-8 for a goalless opening half will without doubt attract attention, especially given how many 0-0s we have seen in the first halves during the knockout stages.
The LVH is offering -135 odds for a first-half score UNDER 1 (all of the props offered at the SuperBook for this match can be seen below).
Yet for more security backing a draw at the break looks like the best option at a price which can allow us to more than double our money.
France vs. Germany
By Sportsbook.sg
France vs. Germany
Date/Time: Friday, 12:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Estadio Do Maracana
Location: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Sportsbook.ag Line:
Germany +130, France +210, Tie after Regulation +230
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +125, Under -153)
Two of the traditional European soccer powerhouses collide in Friday's quarterfinal match when Germany takes on France.
Germany started off its World Cup with 4-0 victory against Portugal, but have been a bit shaky since that opener. After a 2-2 draw with heavy underdog Ghana, they barely topped the United States by a 1-0 score, and failed to score in regulation during a 2-1 win over Algeria in the Round of 16.
France took a while to score against Nigeria in the knockout round, but tallied goals in the 79th minute and 92nd minute to outlast their opponent and pitch their third shutout in four World Cup matches. Les Blues other results were an easy 3-0 win over Honduras, a 5-2 pummeling of Switzerland and a 0-0 draw versus Ecuador.
The Germans are the favorite on Friday, and should have the services of defender Mats Hummels, who missed the Round of 16 with an illness. These countries have met six times over the past 18 years with France prevailing in four of those contests.
France star forward Karim Benzema has three of his team's 10 goals so far in the World Cup, but it was mercurial 21-year-old midfielder Paul Pogba who played the hero in the Round of 16 with a goal in the 79th minute. Germany will have major trouble dealing with Pogba's strength on Friday, and their midfielders are smaller finesse players. But they are also much more experienced. Les Blues has been fortunate with tallies coming off two own goals, and no France player other than Benzema has more than one goal in this World Cup, as forwards Olivier Giroud and Moussa Sissoko, and midfielders Blaise Matuidi and Mathieu Valbuena have one goal apiece.
Other stars for Les Blues in this tournament include midfielders Yohan Cabay and goalkeeper Hugo Lloris who has surrendered only two goals total in the four matches combined, both coming against Switzerland after his club staked him to a 5-0 lead. Possession hasn't been a huge key for France in this tournament, as they held the ball for only 43% versus Switzerland and 49% versus Nigeria, but they still won those games by a combined 7-2 score.
For the tournament, Les Blues has attempted 77 shots, with 48 of those (62%) winding up on goal. After France committed 29 fouls with four yellow cards during their first two matches, they were whistled for only 18 fouls with one yellow card (Matuidi) over the most recent two contests.
Thomas Muller has four of the nine Germany goals in this tournament, giving him nine goals in nine career World Cup matches. His play will go a long way in determining whether his country reaches the semifinal round for the fourth consecutive World Cup. Andre Schurrle, Mesut Ozil, Mats Hummels, Mario Gotze and Miroslav Klose have the other tallies for the Germans, with Klose's tally marking his 15th career World Cup goal, which ties Ronaldo for the all-time record.
Although Germany hasn't played up to its capabilities since its opening match, they have held possession advantages in all three of their matches, with 59% versus Portugal, 54% facing Ghana and a whopping 63% possession time versus both USA and Algeria. For the tournament, they hold a 24-15 edge in corner kicks on their opponents. But after Germany was outshot by a hefty 34-24 margin (19-15 in shots on goal) in the first two matches in the World Cup, they have fired 42 total shots (31 on goal, 74%) in the past two contests combined.
The players tasked with feeding the goal-scoring stars are midfielders Toni Kroos and Lukas Podolski, who has 47 goals in his 116 caps. Germany has allowed only three goals over four matches in this tournament thanks to the stellar play of goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, but there have been some defensive breakdowns that simply cannot happen versus a team as skilled as France.
World Cup Game of the Day: Brazil vs. Colombia
By Covers.com
Brazil v Colombia (-122, +399, Draw +270)
The stakes will be high as host Brazil and surging Colombia do battle Friday afternoon in the first-ever World Cup meeting between the South American rivals. Host Brazil is coming off a nerve-wracking penalty shootout win over Chile - needing a post on the Chileans' final attempt to secure the victory - and saw its offensive star hobbled by a knee injury. The Colombians come in on a high after blanking Uruguay 2-0.
While it may seem disingenuous to suggest that Brazil will only go so far as Neymar's wonky knee carries them, it will be difficult for the one-time tournament favorites to earn their first semifinal berth in 12 years without their star striker in form. Colombia has no such concerns from its scoring star, as James Rodriguez comes in fully fit and leading the World Cup with five goals. Columbia has outscored opponents 11-2.
WORLD RANKINGS:Brazil: No. 3; Colombia: No. 8.
INJURY REPORT: Brazil: F Neymar suffered a knee injury in the round-of-16 win over Chile, but has been cleared to play Friday; MF Luis Gustavo is suspended and will miss the contest. Colombia: None.
WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "This is poised to be one of the games of the tournament for us. Colombia has been dynamic in attack with James Rodriguez and Juan Cuadrado as well as boasting an impressive defensive record. Brazil will have to bring their A game to overturn Los Cafeteros on Friday Evening." Covers Expert Footy Tipster
ABOUT BRAZIL: Neymar's injury isn't the only thing plaguing the Brazilians, who have survived despite middling play from its midfield and will be left short-handed against the Colombians. Luis Gustavo's suspension is a particularly damaging one for Brazil; he owns the best pass rate on the team among players with at least 100 attempts (90.5) and was critical in facilitating the offense near the center line. It's expected that Ramires and Fernandinho will join forces to command the midfield in Gustavo's absence.
ABOUT COLOMBIA: The Colombians were expected to make waves in group stage play - but few expected them to stake a claim as the top team in the tournament through four matches. Rodriguez has been the darling of the tournament; the 22-year-old scored both goals in the round-of-16 match with Uruguay, including a sensational volley in which he gathered a header with his chest before rifling the ball in off the bottom of the crossbar. Colombia's defense has also been stout, and will have the benefit of full health.
TRENDS:
* Brazil has reached six straight quarterfinals, but has failed to advance to the semifinals since 2002.
* The teams have drawn their last four international encounters; three of those games finished goalless.
* Brazil has 13 wins and two draws in its last 16 World Cup games in which it scores first.
* Colombia hasn't beaten Brazil since 1991, losing seven and drawing five in 12 matches since.
Germany and France clash in Friday's quarterfinals
By: Brian Graham
StatFox.com
Two of the traditional European soccer powerhouses collide in Friday's quarterfinal match when Germany takes on France.
Germany started off its World Cup with 4-0 victory against Portugal, but have been a bit shaky since that opener. After a 2-2 draw with heavy underdog Ghana, they barely topped the United States by a 1-0 score, and failed to score in regulation during a 2-1 win over Algeria in the Round of 16. France took a while to score against Nigeria in the knockout round, but tallied goals in the 79th minute and 92nd minute to outlast their opponent and pitch their third shutout in four World Cup matches. Les Blues other results were an easy 3-0 win over Honduras, a 5-2 pummeling of Switzerland and a 0-0 draw versus Ecuador. The Germans are the favorite on Friday, and should have the services of defender Mats Hummels, who missed the Round of 16 with an illness. These countries have met six times over the past 18 years with France prevailing in four of those contests.
France star forward Karim Benzema has three of his team's 10 goals so far in the World Cup, but it was mercurial 21-year-old midfielder Paul Pogba who played the hero in the Round of 16 with a goal in the 79th minute. Germany will have major trouble dealing with Pogba's strength on Friday, and their midfielders are smaller finesse players. But they are also much more experienced. Les Blues has been fortunate with tallies coming off two own goals, and no France player other than Benzema has more than one goal in this World Cup, as forwards Olivier Giroud and Moussa Sissoko, and midfielders Blaise Matuidi and Mathieu Valbuena have one goal apiece. Other stars for Les Blues in this tournament include midfielders Yohan Cabay and goalkeeper Hugo Lloris who has surrendered only two goals total in the four matches combined, both coming against Switzerland after his club staked him to a 5-0 lead. Possession hasn't been a huge key for France in this tournament, as they held the ball for only 43% versus Switzerland and 49% versus Nigeria, but they still won those games by a combined 7-2 score. For the tournament, Les Blues has attempted 77 shots, with 48 of those (62%) winding up on goal. After France committed 29 fouls with four yellow cards during their first two matches, they were whistled for only 18 fouls with one yellow card (Matuidi) over the most recent two contests.
Thomas Muller has four of the nine Germany goals in this tournament, giving him nine goals in nine career World Cup matches. His play will go a long way in determining whether his country reaches the semifinal round for the fourth consecutive World Cup. Andre Schurrle, Mesut Ozil, Mats Hummels, Mario Gotze and Miroslav Klose have the other tallies for the Germans, with Klose's tally marking his 15th career World Cup goal, which ties Ronaldo for the all-time record. Although Germany hasn't played up to its capabilities since its opening match, they have held possession advantages in all three of their matches, with 59% versus Portugal, 54% facing Ghana and a whopping 63% possession time versus both USA and Algeria. For the tournament, they hold a 24-15 edge in corner kicks on their opponents. But after Germany was outshot by a hefty 34-24 margin (19-15 in shots on goal) in the first two matches in the World Cup, they have fired 42 total shots (31 on goal, 74%) in the past two contests combined. The players tasked with feeding the goal-scoring stars are midfielders Toni Kroos and Lukas Podolski, who has 47 goals in his 116 caps. Germany has allowed only three goals over four matches in this tournament thanks to the stellar play of goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, but there have been some defensive breakdowns that simply cannot happen versus a team as skilled as France.
Colombia looks to upset Brazil in Friday's quarters
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
After surviving their match against Chile in dramatic fashion, the home team Brazil will take on Colombia Friday with the winner moving onto the semifinal round.
Brazil’s road to the quarterfinals has been extremely exciting, but none of their matches can match the excitement of their battle with Chile when Brazil eventually advanced on penalty kicks in what was a 1-1 game after overtime. Colombia has proven to be one of the most surprising teams of the tournament so far and now they have an opportunity to knock off the tournament favorites and advance to the Semifinal.
Brazil was involved in a grueling affair with Chile in the Round of 16. Despite the fact that the team playing in front of its home crowd and outshot its opponent 13-5 on goal, there was no difference in goals scored after 30 minutes of extra time. In regulation, David Luiz scored at the 18-minute mark to give Brazil a 1-0 lead, but Alexis Sanchez netted the equalizer 14 minutes later. Those would be the only shots that found the back of the net until penalties. In the penalty kicks, Chile was trailing 3-2 with the final shot on the way and it clanged off the post. Brazil survived and now they face a Colombia team that looked outstanding in their previous match. Star forward Neymar (4 goals in tournament) is nursing an injured thigh and if he doesn’t play, Brazil will have a lot of trouble advancing.
In the Round of 16, Colombia was matched up against Uruguay, who was playing without the suspended Luis Suarez. The game was very evenly played, but only Colombia was able to score. Despite being outshot 9-8 on goal by Uruguay, Colombia won the time of possession with 54%. James Rodriguez (5 goals, 2 assists in tournament) was the difference in the game, as he was unstoppable for Colombia throughout. Rodriguez scored his first goal at the 28-minute mark and made it 2-0 at the 50-minute mark. He has scored at least one goal in all four matches in this tournament. The youngster has really enjoyed a coming out party in this World Cup and he can continue to impress by knocking out Neymar and Brazil.
Friday's Quarterfinal Tips
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Germany vs. France
This is the best looking day of the World Cup so far. There are two quarter-finals, with four excellent teams represented. The winners will go on to meet each other in Belo Horizonte. The victors there will be 90 minutes away from World Cup glory.
The first game of the day sees France play Germany at the Maracana. The two sides are arguably Europe's strongest, and the game looks like being very close. France were hugely impressive in the group, but they had to work for their 2-0 win over Nigeria, only sealing the game in injury time. Germany also won their group, but came perilously close to a huge shock against Algeria, against whom they needed extra time to beat.
The key to both teams' second round wins were their managers' first substitutions. Didier Deschamps started with Olivier Giroud leading the line, with Karim Benzema in an inside-left role. This didn't work. Giroud's hold up play was poor, and he and Benzema got in each other's way. When Giroud was taken off for winger Antoine Griezmann, Benzema was moved up front and France instantly improved. I expect Griezmann to start today.
Germany played three very similar players against Algeria in Mesut Ozil, Toni Kroos and Mario Gotze. While there are subtle differences among the trio, they all prefer to play just behind the striker. Algeria's massed defence played very narrow, and Germany simply didn't have the width to stretch Algeria. Once Andre Schurrle, another winger, came on for the quiet Gotze, Germany started testing the Algerian backline much more. There will be a clamour for Joachim Low to start Schurrle against the French.
France look excellent value here at 43/20 with Sportsbook.ag. The Germans will have tired a lot after playing the majority of their games in hot and humid conditions. France have, quite simply, looked better than Germany at the World Cup so far. While Germany have more tournament experience, they have ceased being the ruthless winners they were 20 years ago, and there is a softness to them that did not previously exist. They are 27/20 to win, with a draw 9/4.
Quarterfinal matches at the World Cup average almost exactly two goals per game, so under 2.5 is the favourite at 67/100. However, even given the low number of goals in normal time in the knockout rounds so far, over 2.5 appeals at 13/10 with two such attack-minded sides. Both teams to score is a 20/21 shot.
In the first goalscorer market, centre-forwards Karim Benzema and Thomas Muller are 5/1 and 4/1 respectively, but with so many good attacking midfielders on show, it may pay to look elsewhere. The two that stand out to me are Schurrle at 6/1 (he once scored four in one game for Germany) and France's midfield sensation Paul Pogba at 8/1.
Top Bet: France to win at 43/20
Colombia vs. Brazil
Brazil face Colombia in both teams' second consecutive tie against a fellow South American team. It's another titanic clash. Brazil are still the favourites for the World Cup, but there are problems with the team. They are utterly reliant on Neymar (who, so far, has delivered) for attacking inspiration, while they are often a bit empty in the centre of midfield.
Colombia have been the best team at the World Cup so far, and attacking midfielder James Rodriguez the best player, who also scored the best goal. That came in a 2-0 win over Uruguay, whom they dominated from start to finish. This is their first ever game in the quarter-finals, which is extraordinary given the population and the number of world class players that have come from Colombia. It is a true golden generation. Can they keep calm?
Brazil have one big selection issue: defensive midfielder Luiz Gustavo, their best player in the win on penalties against Chile, is suspended. He knits the side together superbly, and his defensive mindset compensates well for the cavalier approach of the two full-backs. Paulinho and Fernandinho will most likely be the pair Scolari opts for, but neither are like-for-like replacements. And with James Rodriguez buzzing around in the gap between midfield and defence, it is a dreadful time for Brazil to be without Gustavo.
I just can't resist Colombia here. They are 3/1 to win the game in 90 minutes, and 2/1 to qualify. Given the number of games that have gone to extra time, I'd take the latter option. Prior to the tournament, you'd expect Brazil to be about 1/2 to win this match, but given how much Colombia have impressed, they are in fact 87/100. A draw is available at 27/10, and also looks like a sound bet. Here again, few goals are expected with under 2.5 the 37/50 favourite.
We have seen an unusual number of goals in extra time so far: all six goals in the Germany v Algeria and Belgium v USA games came after 90 minutes, and Colombia to win in extra time is hugely appealing at 13/1.
There is much to admire in the Brazil side: their team spirit is incredible, and Scolari has managed to forge a club-like bond between his players. So far they have dealt with the colossal pressure on them, but in Colombia they may just meet a slightly better team.
In the first goalscorer market, Neymar is too short at 27/10, even though he is comfortably Brazil's most dangerous player. Fred is 9/2, and may prosper against a questionable Colombia centre-back pairing. James Rodriguez is 13/2, with Teofilo Gutierrez, Colombia's first choice striker in the absence of Falcao, is 15/2.
Top Bets: Colombia to qualify at 2/1, Colombia to win in extra time at 13/1