Monday's World Cup Tips
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
France vs. Nigeria
Both last 16 matches on Monday see a European team, as heavy favourite, play against one of the two African teams left in the World Cup. A double on France and Germany to win in normal time against beat Nigeria and Algeria respectively pays out at just 1.76/1. Will there be an upset, or will the favourites progress?
First up, France face Nigeria at the Estadio Nacional in Brasilia. France have been one of the teams of the tournament so far. They scored eight goals in three games in winning Group E, and look a team to be feared. Having been available at around 25/1 to win the World Cup before the tournament started, well done to those who backed Les Bleus at those prices. They look a force to be reckoned with.
Nigeria qualified largely thanks to one good performance. Their 1-0 win over Bosnia-Herzegovina, where admittedly they deserved victory, came between a dour 0-0 against Iran and a 3-2 defeat to Argentina, and there was little to suggest from their group stage performances that the Super Eagles would go far in Brazil. They are arguably the least impressive team in the last 16.
France are the 2/5 favourites with sportsbook.ag, with Nigeria out at 27/4. A draw is 15/4. These prices seem about right, and there is little room for manoeuvre. I just can’t see Nigeria troubling France here. Their defence is decent without having enough to frustrate the best, while their attack is weakened by the midfield trio’s inability to create. In the ‘To Qualify’ market, you can get France at 5/25, while Stephen Keshi’s Nigeria are 19/5.
Bookies are expecting goals, but only one of the four last 16 matches so far have produced over 2.5 goals. Under 2.5 goals looks appealing at 1/1. Nigeria will find it difficult to break through the French backline, and they will have few chances to do so anyway. If France go ahead early, it is easy to imagine them playing it cautious, conserving energy for the next round. The heat will be strong in Brasilia, and Didier Deschamps will be anxious that his side to not push themselves too hard ahead of a potential quarter-final against Germany.
Top Bet: Under 2.5 goals at 1/1
Germany vs. Algeria
Germany meet Algeria at the Estadio Beira-Rio, in Porto Alegre. After three games in high humidity, it will be the first time Germany play in moderate temperatures, and they are heavy favourites to go through. They topped Group G, but were only genuinely impressive once, in a 4-0 win over Portugal, who had 10 men for most of the match.
Algeria were favourites to finish bottom of Group H, but showed their quality with three impressive results: they were unlucky to lose 2-1 to Belgium in their opening game, before thrashing South Korea 4-2 in their second tie. They secured the draw they needed against Russia, and Vahid Halihodzic’s side are worthy of their place in the last 16. After adding little to World Cup 2010 (they didn’t even score in the three matches they played), they have shown that their squad is full of quality in Brazil, and they will be a force in years to come.
Germany are, of course, heavy favourites. They are 13/50 to win the match in normal time, but given the fact that their first team is so uncertain, this cannot be recommended. A draw is 5/1, with a shock Algeria win, which would make them the first Arab nation to make the quarter-finals of the World Cup, is at 10/1. In the ‘To Qualify’ market, which may be of more appeal to punters, Germany are as short as 1/8, with Les Fennecs (the Desert Foxes) at a much more appealing 23/4.
Germany’s three matches so far have all been played in tough, ultra-humid conditions. No matter how good their preparation has been, this will have taken something out of them. Joachim Löw declined to rotate too much for their essentially dead game against USA, and this may come back to haunt him.
Algeria, meanwhile, have been in peak physical condition, and their relentless hard work in their game against Russia proved how fit these players are. In Sofiane Feghouli and Yacine Brahimi they have two fine playmakers, while Islam Slimani is a good all-round centre-forward. They are surely worth a bet in the handicap market. Algeria +1.5 is a 1/1 shot, and this looks good value to me.
Top Bet: Algeria +1.5 at 1/1
World Cup Game of the Day: France vs. Nigeria
By Covers.com
France vs. Nigeria (-200, +650, Draw +340)
With the temperatures soaring and the games becoming even more important, a little rest could go a long way for France as it prepares to face Nigeria in second round action Monday at the World Cup. The French coasted to back-to-back wins in group stage play, allowing coach Didier Deschamps to rest several regulars in a 0-0 tie with Ecuador. Nigeria is in tough after winning just one of three group stage games, and comes in off a 3-2 loss to Argentina.
The French have traditionally been a tough out whenever they've advanced past the initial group stage, reaching the semifinals five straight times in those situations. They're heavily favored against a Nigerian side that squeaked through Group F and will be without talented midfielder Michel Babatunde. "The team is young, but it's growing fast and learning quickly," Nigerian captain Joseph Yobo told fifa.com. "I don't see what we should be afraid of."
WORLD RANKINGS: France: No. 17; Nigeria: No. 44.
INJURY REPORT: France: D Mamadou Sakho is dealing with a hamstring injury and is considered doubtful. Nigeria: MF Michel Babatunde is out following a broken arm suffered when he was hit with a shot against Argentina; MF Victor Moses is dealing with a muscular problem and his status is in doubt.
WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "A much revived French side comes into this second round match with high hopes of reaching the Quarter Finals. Nigeria's dismal record of only winning one of their last 11 World Cup games is surely in the players minds and It will be interesting to see how both teams approach this one." Covers Expert Footy Tipster.
WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "So far we have seen some really close games in the knock out stage of the World Cup and I would think we are going to see another close game between France and Nigeria. France is a big favorite in this match and our players are backing them with 88 percent of the action. As for the 2.5 goal total the over is getting 80 percent of the action." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.
ABOUT FRANCE: The French are looking at changes to their lineup despite outscoring opponents 8-2 in group play. with Sakho not expected to play, one of either Laurent Koscielny or Raphael Varane will assume the starting center-back role for Deschamps' team. The changes extend to the team's core offensive options, with Olivier Giroud and Antoine Griezmann making a serious challenge to Karim Benzema's starting spot and Moussa Sissoko in the running to start in place of Paul Pogba.
ABOUT NIGERIA: The loss to Argentina was a difficult one to digest, but did feature at least one encouraging moment provided by Ahmed Musa. The Spartak Moscow forward had a sensational goal in the match at Porto Allegre after failing to impress in his team's opening two games. Team manager Stephen Keshi believes his team is in the right frame of mind, telling reporters: "Whether we are playing Spain at the FIFA Confederations Cup or playing against Liberia in a friendly match, I always tell the boys that victory is non-negotiable."
TRENDS:
* Nigeria earned a 1-0 victory in their only previous meeting at Saint-Etienne in 2009.
* The Nigerians have won just one of their previous 11 World Cup matches.
* France is unbeaten in three previous second-round matches at the World Cup, outscoring its opponents 6-1.
* No team had more shot attempts than France (50) during group stage play.
France vs. Nigeria Betting Preview and Pick
By: Al Hain-Cole
Goal.com
Nigeria take part in their first World Cup knockout match since 1998 when they face France in Monday's last 16 clash in Brasilia (12 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Having qualified as runners-up to Argentina ahead of Bosnia-Herzegovina and Iran, Stephen Keshi's men are +675 underdogs at the LVH SuperBook to win this game in regulation plus injury time. They are +350 to advance through to the quarterfinals.
Les Bleus breezed through the first round in impressive style as the third highest-scoring side of the tournament and are -420 favorites to book their place in the final eight with an outright victory here. They are -230 to win in 90 minutes.
However, Didier Deschamps' men were held to a frustrating 0-0 draw by 10-man Ecuador in their final group game, and you can get odds of +340 on them playing out another stalemate this time out.
While they should be coming into this match in high spirits after reaching the last 16 of a World Cup for just the second time ever, the last few days have been tumultuous for the Super Eagles.
A controversy over unpaid bonuses has threatened to derail the African champions' campaign just at the crucial moment, with the nation's president Goodluck Jonathan reportedly compelled to intervene in order to avoid the threat of a player strike.
Although the matter is supposedly now resolved, it is impossible to believe that this unwelcome distraction will not have any impact when they take to the field against a French side that have proved rampant at times in Brazil.
As Switzerland found out to their cost in a memorable 5-2 group stage defeat, any lack of concentration is likely to be punished by a fluid attacking team that has now struck 16 goals in their last four matches.
Having also kept clean sheets at the other end in eight of their previous 11, odds of -120 are surely worth backing on France minus a goal over a distracted Nigerian side that leaked three goals within 50 minutes against Argentina last time out.
Bet of the day: France (-1 goal) at -120
Germany vs. Algeria Betting Preview and Pick
By: Hugh Wilson
Goal.com
Algeria and Germany face off in the second round of the World Cup on Monday (4 p.m. ET, ESPN), with Joachim Low's side being tipped as massive favorites to progress into the quarterfinals. Die Mannschaft were hugely impressive in the group stages, but will not underestimate an Algerian side who have certainly won a number of fans throughout this tournament.
The underdogs progressed through the group stages after a dramatic match against Russia, where they came from a goal down to draw 1-1 and take the second spot in Group H. Algeria started off the World Cup with a defeat against Belgium, despite leading for over 45 minutes.
Two goals from Belgium in the last 20 minutes put them to the sword and gave them a mountain to climb to take the second spot.
Vahid Halilhodzic's men reacted in a positive manner, thrashing South Korea 4-2, before their draw against Russia. Las Vegas sports books see this match as a step too far for the Foxes', with multiple bet shops pricing them at double-digit odds. The LVH SuperBook lists them at +1150.
Germany kicked off their World Cup in style, dispatching Portugal 4-0 with Thomas Muller scoring a hat-trick. The Bayern Munich star has led the German line well, netting four goals so far in Brazil. Despite Germany having a slight hiccup against Ghana, drawing 2-2, they secured top spot by beating USA 1-0 in a tight match. The Germans are priced at -400 to beat Algeria in regulation, with the LVH offering the draw at +480.
The LVH has Germany at -900 to advance, and Algeria at 6-to-1 odds to reach the quarterfinals.
It would take a mammoth effort from Algeria to even trouble Germany, according to the bookmakers, hence why they are so short to win the match. It's tough to touch the outright market, with Die Mannschaft too short to back for most bettors, despite the strength in their side. Even if you backed Germany on the spread at -1.5 goals, the -120 price is too skinny.
Looking away from Germany, the 'both teams to score' prop stands out at -105 with the SuperBook. Algeria aren't to be underestimated in this game, and with goals in their side, you can expect them to net in this match.
The Foxes' have scored in their last 16 matches, including six goals in the World Cup so far. With Germany looking suspect at the back against Ghana and Cameroon in a preparation friendly, conceding twice on both occasions, expect both sides to find the net. It's not worth reading too much into the clean sheet against USA, who sat back playing for the draw in the final group match.
Bet of the day: Both teams to score (-105) at the LVH
Nigeria tries to upset France on Monday
By: Brian Graham
StatFox.com
France looks to continue its impressive World Cup run when it opens up the knockout stage versus Nigeria on Monday.
France had little problem with Honduras to begin their World Cup quest, winning easily by a 3-0 score, and followed that up with a 5-2 pummeling of Switzerland. Although Les Blues failed to score versus Ecuador, that 0-0 draw was good enough to give them enough points to win Group E. Nigeria did not allow a goal in its first two World Cup contests, drawing 0-0 with Iran before prevailing 1-0 over Bosnia-Herzegovina to end a 16-year win drought at the World Cup that had spanned nine straight winless matches. Nigeria then played very well against heavily-favored Argentina in a virtual home match near their country's border in Porto Alegre, with the Super Eagles falling 3-2 in an entertaining, back-and-forth affair. The one bit of troubling news to Nigeria fans is the inter-squad drama going on with the players skipping practice last week in protest about their bonuses. This matter has still not been resolved.
France star forward Karim Benzema has three of his team's eight goals so far in the World Cup, with one goal apiece for forwards Olivier Giroud and Moussa Sissoko, and midfielders Blaise Matuidi and Mathieu Valbuena. Other stars for Les Blues in this tournament include midfielders Paul Pogba and Yohan Cabaye, and goalkeeper Hugo Lloris who has recorded shutouts in two of the three matches. Although France throttled Switzerland with five goals, they did allow two goals after the 80th minute of that game and got out-possessed 57% to 43%. However, Les Blues buckled down on defense in their most recent match by holding the ball for 60% of the scoreless draw versus Ecuador and reached 20 total shots for the second straight match, putting 13 of those on net. That gives the club a whopping 62 shots for the tournament, with 39 of those on net. After France committed 29 fouls and four yellow cards during their two wins, they committed only six fouls against Ecuador with zero yellow cards.
The Super Eagles were able to get a pair of goals from Ahmed Musa in their loss to Argentina, which saw them get outshot 18-12, including 13-7 for shots on goal. Nigeria had the ball for just 43% of the time. Although goalkeeper Vincent Enyeama surrendered three goals in the most recent match, he also made 10 saves, giving him 20 saves in the three World Cup contests. Nigeria trimmed its fouls from 16 versus Iran to nine against Bosnia-Herzegovina, but the Super Eagles committed 17 fouls against Argentina with defenders Kenneth Omeruo and Juwon Oshaniwa both booked for yellow cards. To pull off the huge upset, the Super Eagles know that star forward Emmanuel Emenike, who netted 15 goals in 32 games at the club level this season, will likely have to find the back of the net. But Nigeria has plenty of speedy attackers, such as Musa and Peter Odemwingie that could put France in an early hole.
Germany heavily favored vs. Algeria on Monday
By: Brian Graham
StatFox.com
Group G champion Germany hopes to breeze past heavy underdog Algeria when the two nations meet in Monday's Round of 16 match.
Germany started off its World Cup with 4-0 victory against Portugal, but have been a bit shaky since that opener. After a 2-2 draw with heavy underdog Ghana, they barely topped the United States by a 1-0 score. After losing a late lead in a 2-1 defeat to Belgium in its World Cup opener, Algeria stormed back for a 4-2 victory over South Korea to pick up a crucial three points. A 1-1 draw with Russia assured them a spot in the knockout round.
Thomas Muller has four of the seven Germany goals in this tournament, giving him nine goals in nine career World Cup matches. His tally in the 55th minute on Thursday propelled his country into this knockout round. Mats Hummels, Mario Gotze and Miroslav Klose have the other tallies for the Germans, with Klose's tally marking his 15th career World Cup goal, which ties Ronaldo for the all-time record. It won't be easy for this squad to get great chances against what will be a defensive-minded opponent though. Germany has held possession advantages in all three of their matches, with 59% versus Portugal, 54% facing Ghana and a whopping 63% possession time versus the Americans. For the tournament, they hold a 14-11 edge in corner kicks on their opponents. But after Germany was outshot by a hefty 34-24 margin (19-15 in shots on goal) in the first two matches in the World Cup, they fired 13 shots (9 on goal) in their last contest, while holding their USA opponent to four total shots (1 on goal). The players tasked with feeding goal-scoring stars Muller and Klose are midfielders Toni Kroos -- who has completed 94 percent of his passes in the World Cup -- Mesut Ozi and Lukas Podolski. Germany has allowed only two goals in two matches thanks to the stellar play of goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, but there have been some defensive breakdowns with midfielder Philipp Lahm and left back Benedikt Howedes the main culprits.
Algeria failed to score a goal in the entire 2010 World Cup, but coach Vahid Halilhodzic's club already has six tallies in its first three matches in this tournament thanks to a more talented roster and a more creative and versatile attack mode that has pushed the tempo on the counter, through crosses and have also improved on set pieces. However, this Algeria team will probably not press the issue too much and would love to settle for a 0-0 draw to take their chances in penalty kicks after extra time. Goalkeeper Adi Mbolhi is athletic enough to make the tough saves needed to survive. The team's penalty-kick goal by midfielder Sofiane Feghouli was its only shot on goal versus Belgium in a match where they attempted just three total shots, but was much more aggressive against South Korea and Russia with 23 total shots, 14 shots on goal, and five shots in net by four different players (2 goals by forward Islam Slimani and 1 goal each for defenseman Rafik Halliche and midfielders Abdelmoumene Djabou and Yacine Brahimi). The attacking Slimani will need to take advantage of a somewhat suspect German defense to give his club any chance at pulling off the gargantuan upset. After being dominated in possession by Belgium (65% to 35%), Algeria held the ball 46% of the time versus South Korea and 47% of the match versus Russia. Algeria has been very physical in this tournament with 49 fouls, and have picked up five yellow cards with midfielder Nabil Bentaleb in the opener, defender Madjid Bougherra in the second match and three players (defender Djamel Mesbah, forward Nabil Ghilas and defender Liassine Cadamuro) booked in the most recent contest.