Brazil vs. Netherlands Betting Preview and Pick
By: Phil Kitromilides
Goal.com
In theory, this is the match that nobody wants to play, yet for Brazil it could prove to be a blessing, giving Felipe Scolari's men a chance to take a small step back from the humiliating brink they were thrust towards by their semifinal destruction at the hands of a Germany.
The Netherlands, meanwhile, with a youthful and inexperienced squad never expected to get this far, so once they get over the agonizing penalty kick loss to Argentina, the Dutch should be able to go out and enjoy themselves in Saturday’s third-place World Cup game (4 p.m. ET, ESPN).
The LVH SuperBook offers the host at +115 on the three-way result (bet is official after 90 minutes plus injury time), while Holland can be backed at +215 and the draw is priced at +275.
With the pressure off for both teams, we could be in for an entertaining game and one which the bookmakers certainly think will be full of goals. The LVH opened the total at 3 goals, with OVER priced as the -130 favorite and UNDER offered at odds of +110.
Outside of Las Vegas, the 'yes' side of the ‘will both teams score’ props is offered a odds of just 1-to-2.
The latter especially may well attract some attention from some bettors happy to back shorter prices, yet for our purposes a more intelligent selection is necessary.
While Brazil may have more motivation for the game, the Netherlands remain a potent attacking threat, particularly on the break.
Against Argentina they were supremely defensive, concerning themselves almost exclusively with neutralizing the threat of Lionel Messi to the detriment of their attacking play.
Expect that to change drastically against Brazil and for Louis van Gaal to adopt a far more offensive approach, similar to that deployed in the early part of the tournament.
All this means that the price of -110 for Holland to score in the first half – again, offered outside of Nevada – looks extremely attractive, especially considering that Brazil have conceded first half goals in four of their six matches at the tournament.
At the LVH, the Netherlands are +120 as a pick 'em on the first-half line, with the first-half total posted at 1.5 goals (OVER +120, UNDER -140).
Bet of the day: Holland to score in the first half at -110
Netherlands vs. Brazil
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Netherlands vs. Brazil
The Third place play-off is something of an anomaly. No other competition, not the Champions League, the European Championship or Copa America has a third place play-off. But the World Cup does. Sometimes these matches can be celebratory affairs - in 2002, the co-hosts South Korea played out a highly entertaining 3-2 defeat to Turkey. Neither side would have dreamed of reaching the semi-finals before the tournament, so for them it was a celebratory occasion.
It will not be so here. This game, at the Estadio Nacional in Brasília, will have the atmosphere of a funeral. Brazil were humbled 7-1 by Germany in their semi-final. It was the most extraordinary result of my lifetime, and era-defining game. The devastation was such that many who played for the home side that day may never represent Brazil again. They face Holland, who were not lucky second time around after another 0-0 that went to penalties. They got past Costa Rica, but missed two of their four kicks against Argentina, sending Louis van Gaal’s side out.
The most interesting thing about this game will be Scolari’s team selection in his last match as coach, and how the players respond after the some of the worst few days of their lives. Some players, particularly, Fred, Marcelo, Fernandinho, Hulk and Maicon, can surely not play on Saturday, given the criticism they have been subjected to since the defeat.
It will be interesting to see whether David Luiz partners Thiago Silva. Luiz took the captaincy in Silva’s absence in Belo Horizonte, and endured 90 atrocious minutes. Though Marcelo was Brazil’s worst player that night, it was David Luiz whose reputation took the biggest battering. Everything his critics have levelled at him was proven catastrophically right.
Ramires will surely come in, after a respectable second-half performance, while there may also be first starts of the tournament for Jefferson, Henrique, Maxwell, Willian, Hernanes and Jô.
Although he has recently said that ‘We are going to do everything to finish third…We want to leave the World Cup unbeaten, something a Dutch side has never achieved’, Louis van Gaal gave away his attitude to the Third place play-off somewhat by saying it ‘should never be played’. This will surely affect the extent to which his team exert themselves in Brasilia. While many third place games are high-scoring, we could see a low-scorer here.
On the one hand, there is a team at its lowest ebb, humiliated at home and just wanting the nightmare to end. Without Neymar, as we saw against Germany, Brazil just have desperately little going forward, and Thiago Silva’s return will improve the back-line. Holland have only scored once in open play since the group stages, and they have little invention in midfield with Wesley Sneijder having a quiet tournament. Arjen Robben is the man who makes things happen for the Oranje, who also have a solid defence. Ron Vlaar, the man who missed the second crucial penalty in the quarter-final, has been superb. So I recommend taking under 2.5 goals at 29/20 with Sportsbook.ag. This will not be the carefree Third-place play-off of previous years.
In the match winner market, Brazil are rather surprisingly the 23/20 favourites, with Holland 41/20 and a draw 14/5. The draw looks the best option here, but it seems surprising that Brazil are so short. While it is foolish to overreact to one result, that price is not too different from what bookies would have been laying without seeing Brazil capitulate against Germany. One performance does not mean everything, but Brazil were just so bad, and the players were so dejected, that it is bound to have an effect here.
In the first goalscorer market, I have been constantly tipping up Arjen Robben, and again here I like the look of 11/2 about the Bayern Munich man breaking the deadlock. This is particularly good if Marcelo plays. Most of Germany’s early goals came down Marcelo’s side, which is where Robben plays. Jô looks certain to lead the line for Brazil, after poor Fred’s barracking at the hands of the Mineirão crowd on Tuesday. He has 5 goals in 19 for Brazil, a record that is more impressive than it looks given his usual role as a substitute. He is 7/1.
Top Bet: Under 2.5 goals at 29/20
World Cup Game of the Day: Brazil vs. Netherlands
By Covers.com
Brazil vs. Netherlands (+120, +230, Draw +280)
Brazil and the Netherlands both reached Saturday's World Cup third-place game in heart-wrenching fashion. The host Brazilians were throttled 7-1 by Germany in their final four game on Tuesday afternoon, leaving their millions of fans - not to mention the soccer world - dumbfounded and disappointed. The Dutch suffered a very different defeat, dominating play against Argentina but ultimately dropping the semifinal showdown 4-2 on penalties.
With neither team all that interested in playing for third, it will be interesting to see how both clubs approach the match. Both teams are expected to make changes to their starting lineups, favoring younger players or those who have seen limited action so far in the World Cup over established stars who may be tired or disinterested in the match. The Dutch, in particular, may struggle to regroup as they remain without a World Cup championship to their credit.
WORLD RANKINGS: Brazil: No. 3; Netherlands: No. 15.
INJURY REPORT: Brazil: F Neymar is sidelined for the match with broken vertebrae. Netherlands: None.
WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "Brazil will still be licking their wounds after the mauling by Germany, I can see this game meaning more to Brazilians, Louis Van Gaal (Dutch coach) has already made it clear that the 3rd place play-off game is pointless." - Covers Experts' Footy Tipster
WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "Money makes our markets move, so we'll continue to watch what comes in, but motivation certainly plays a role. Lineups will be of critical importance to the Brazil-Netherlands outcome, and with the two teams expressing vastly different attitudes towards the match, it wouldn't be surprising to see those attitudes reflected in lineup composition. We're accounting for that possibility in our market management, and bettors should certainly be doing the same when deciding which nation to back." - Pinnacle Sports.
ABOUT BRAZIL: Manager Luiz Felipe Scolari will come under fire the moment the tournament ends after overseeing his nation's worst defeat in 84 years - but he remains focused on salvaging some national pride aturday. "I know my career will be marked by this defeat but we have an obligation to move on, thinking about the next goal, which in this case is the match for third place in Brasilia," he told reporters. "I know it's a much smaller dream than we all wanted but we have to honor the shirt of the national team."
ABOUT THE NETHERLANDS: Dutch manager Louis Van Gaal has strong feelings about the World Cup's third-place game - and they're not positive ones. "(It) should never be played," he said in the moments following the semifinal loss to Argentina. "... the worst thing is i believe that chances are that you lose twice in a row. And a tournament in which you've played so marvelously well, you would go home as a loser just because you could possibly have lost the last two matches and this has got nothing to do with sport in my view."
TRENDS:
* Brazil holds a 4-3 edge in the head-to-head series, with the teams drawing five times.
* The Netherlands defeated Brazil 2-1 in their last World Cup meeting four years ago in South Africa.
* An average of 4.2 goals have been scored in the last nine third-place games.
* Neither team has appeared in the third-place match since 1998, when the Dutch dropped a 2-1 decision to Croatia.