Saturday's World Cup Tips
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Belgium vs. Argentina
The second pair of quarterfinals take place on Saturday, and two more excellent matches are anticipates. Argentina are the favourites to qualify for the final from this half of the draw, but can someone else cause a surprise?
First up Argentina face Belgium in Brasilia. Both teams put in unconvincing performances in their last 16 matches, before coming through after extra time. That half an hour of football will have had an effect on both teams, and the temperature in Brasilia, while nothing on what we have seen in the far north of the country, will be high. It could lead to a rather slow, patient game with few goals.
Argentina were dreadful for much of their game against Switzerland. There was no cohesion to the team, and the Swiss could well have nicked it. Angel Di Maria scored the 118th minute winner, but the Real Madrid man, having ended the season so well, has been completely off the pace at this World Cup, which has been a major source of Argentina’s problems. The squad does not have quite the depth in quality of some others, and so only one enforced change will be made: left-back Marcos Rojo is suspended, so left-footed centre-back José Maria Basanta looks set to fill in.
Belgium have somehow won all four games at this World Cup (admittedly against four fairly average opponents), but there has been little from their performances to suggest that they are capable of winning the World Cup. Having crashed from 500/1 in 2010 to going off at 13/1 to win the World Cup, there is a sense that Belgium have become overhyped. Nonetheless, they are still here and deserve credit.
Argentina are the 23/20 favourites with Sportsbook.ag, and this looks a price to be piled into. The vast numbers of Argentines pouring into Brazil will almost make the match a home game for Alejandro Sabella’s side. The importance of having the crowd behind you was emphasised hugely in Brazil’s win over Colombia. Like Brazil, Argentina seem to thrive under pressure and have a way of getting the job done when they’re not playing well. A draw is 11/5 with Belgium 27/10 to win inside 90 minutes. The ‘To Qualify’ market has Argentina at 5/9 and Belgium 157/100.
Bookies are expecting a low-scoring game: over 2.5 goals is 29/20 with the under option a 61/100 shot. In the first goalscorer market Lionel Messi leads the way at 14/5 and, for once, this may not be a bad price on him breaking the deadlock.
Top Bet: Argentina to win at 23/20
Costa Rica vs. Netherlands
The last quarterfinal, and the fifth last game of the whole World Cup, sees Netherlands play Costa Rica at the Fonte Nova in Salvador. Costa Rica are the surprise packages of the World Cup, but it is a 5/22 shot that their great journey will come to an end tonight against Holland, the only team left to have won all their games so far. Los Ticos played for over an hour against Greece with 10 men before winning on penalties.
The Dutch were five minutes from going out of the World Cup, before an extraordinary turnaround of goals in the 88th and 90th minutes put them through and sent Mexico home. The draw has opened out nicely for Louis van Gaal’s side - it’s not often you get to play a side as weak on paper as Costa Rica in a World Cup quarter-final.
Nigel De Jong is out of the World Cup with a groin strain, and so the impressive and versatile Daley Blind will step into defensive midfield, with Bruno Martins Indi playing on the left. Either that or Leroy Fer will come in as a straight swap. For Costa Rica, Oscar Duarte is suspended, and he will have to be wary of tiredness creeping into members of his squad after going the full distance against Greece.
I feel Costa Rica may have been unfairly written off here. While Arjen Robben is truly exceptional, this Dutch team looks pretty ordinary otherwise. Costa Rica managed to top the ‘group of death’, and the gritty win over Greece showed their mental strength. They have possibly the goalkeeper of the tournament in Keylor Navas, a defence that has conceded just twice in four matches, and a quick, dangerous forward in Joel Campbell. They are 6/1 to win in normal time and 7/2 to qualify. Holland are 1/2 to win, and a draw in 90 minutes is priced up at 63/20.
Holland have improved steadily throughout games, and Costa Rica will tire. As this happens, Robben’s influence will grow and, in the end, I expect the Oranje to get through. It may be worth getting on the half-time draw at 11/10. Both these sides played out exceptionally dull first halves in their last 16 ties, and Costa Rica have the ability to frustrate their opponents.
Top Bet: Draw at half-time at 11/10
World Cup Game of the Day: Argentina vs. Belgium
By Covers.com
Argentina vs. Belgium (+120, +275, Draw +230)
Belgium's plan for beating Argentina and advancing to the semifinals of the World Cup should be a simple one: contain Lionel Messi. The Belgians will have their hands full with one of the best players on the planet as they take on Argentina on Saturday afternoon at Estadio Nacional in Brasilia. Messi scored four goals in group play and set up Angel di Maria's extra-time winner in Argentina's round-of-16 triumph.
The Belgians also needed extra time to advance to the quarterfinals, firing everything they had at American goaltender Tim Howard before finally putting two past him in a narrow win over the U.S. While Messi will provide a major challenge for the Belgium defense, the Eurpoean side will benefit offensively from the suspension of Argentina starting back Marcus Rojo. Belgium has beaten Argentina just once in four meetings.
WORLD RANKINGS: Argentina: No. 5; Belgium: No. 11.
INJURY REPORT: Argentina: D Marcos Rojo is suspended for the match after picking up a second yellow against Switzerland; F Sergio Aguero resumed training after suffering a thigh injury in the group stage against Nigeria, but isn't expected to start. Belgium: D Thomas Vermaelen suffered a knee injury late against the United States but will likely play; MF Mousa Dembele is doubtful with an injured thigh.
WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "Argentina have looked very lackluster ahead of the quarter final tie with Belgium, despite the fact that they've arguable had the easiest road to the Quarter Finals, Belgium must not be underestimated here, The Red Devils Expect a close game." - Covers Experts Footy Tipster
WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "I would have to say that Belgium is one of the surprise teams in this quarter final as we opened them at 500-1 way back when we first opened our World Cup odds to win. They face the always tough Argentinians in the first game of the day. Most of our players expect this match to end in a tie after 90mins of regulation with 42% of the action, while 31% of the action is on Belgium to win in regulation. The action on the 2.5 goal total has been mostly on the under with 84% of the action." - Michael Stewart of Carbonsports.ag
ABOUT ARGENTINA: Teams traditionally don't favor running their entire offense through one player - but then, most teams don't employ someone as creative and electrifying as Messi. "We know he is our main player, our captain, the best player in the world," said teammate Pablo Zabaleta. "Every time we recover the ball we try to pass to him as he is the best player we have ... he will score goals." Jose Basanta is expected to assume Rojo's spot in the starting lineup.
ABOUT BELGIUM: Vermaelen may be back in the fold, but it doesn't necessarily mean he'll be in the starting lineup. Belgian coach Marc Wilmots was impressed by the play of tandem Jan Vertonghen and Daniel Van Buyten against the American side in the second stage opener, and may opt to pair them one more time against Argentina. Vertonghen, in particular, was impressive in the round-of-16 triumph, challenging American attacks repeatedly while playing the entire match.
TRENDS:
* Argentina has won just six of its last 19 World cup games against European foes.
* All six Belgium goals in the tournament have been scored from the 70th minute on.
* Argentina leads the tournament with a 64.3-percent possession rate.
* Belgium and Argentina lead the World Cup in shots at 83 and 80, respectively.
Argentina vs. Belgium
By Sportsbook.ag
Argentina vs. Belgium
Sportsbook.ag Line:
Argentina +120, Belgium +250, Tie after Regulation +225
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +130, Under -149)
Two teams coming off grueling extra-time victories in the Round of 16 will collide in Saturday's quarterfinals when Argentina meets Belgium.
Argentina has won all four of its matches in this tournament, with all four victories coming by a one-goal margin. After edging Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-1 and escaping past Iran 1-0, the Maracana outlasted Nigeria 3-2 to clinch Group F. In Tuesday's Round of 16 contest, Argentina failed to score until the 118th minute in a 1-0 win over Switzerland.
Belgium's World Cup fate has been the same as its opponent, winning all four of its matches, and all four of those victories coming by one goal. They edged Algeria 2-1 and posted back-to-back, 1-0 shutout wins over Russia and South Korea before holding off USA 2-1 in the knockout round. All six tournament goals for the Red Devils have come at least 70 minutes into each match with the half-dozen tallies coming at minutes 70, 78, 80, 88, 93 and 105. But these wins came with a price, as several of their key players were hurting on the road to their first quarterfinal berth since 1986.
Defender Thomas Vermaelen didn't play on Tuesday because of an injured hamstring, while right back Anthony Vanden Borre (cracked fibula) and defender Laurent Ciman (strained abductor) were unable to suit up either. Argentina opened the single-elimination tournament minus forward Sergio Aguero, who is doubtful to play in the quarterfinals because of a thigh injury.
Forward Lionel Messi has arguably been the best player in the World Cup, and has carried Argentina with four of his team's seven goals, and he also set up teammate Angel di Maria's one-timer with a perfect pass at the 118th minute to escape past Switzerland in the Round of 16. The other two tallies for the Maracana came on a fortunate own goal by Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Marcos Rojo's game-winner versus Nigeria. Although Argentina has not dominated in this tournament as many experts expected they would versus a perceived weak schedule, they did possess the ball for 55% against Bosnia-Herzegovina, a whopping 70% versus Iran, 57% versus Nigeria and 61% of the time against the Swiss.
The Maracana also fired 29 shots in their last match with 22 going on goal (76%), giving them 47 total shots with 35 on net (75%) in the past two matches combined. For the tournament, Argentina has 77 shots, with 49 on goal (64%). After generating only two corner-kick chances in their World Cup opener, they have produced 35 corner kicks over the past three contests, including 13 versus Switzerland. The Maracana have played a very clean tournament as well, with just one offsides call, and 24 total fouls and one yellow card (Rojo) in group play.
However, in the Round of 16, they were whistled for a whopping 19 fouls versus the Swiss, including three yellow cards (Rojo, di Maria and defender Ezequiel Garay). Rojo is not allowed to play on Saturday because of his two bookings. Argentina needs to stay disciplined because Belgium is likely to employ a defense-heavy game plan on Saturday.
Belgium has a pedestrian six goals in four World Cup matches, with four of those coming from substitute players (midfielders Marouane Fellaini, Dries Mertens and forwards Divock Origi and Romelu Lukaku), which shows the team's incredible depth. Starting defender Jan Vertonghen recorded the lone tally versus South Korea at the 78th minute to give his team its third straight win in the tournament, and it was midfielder Kevin De Bruyne scoring first against the Americans at the 93rd minute in the Round of 16 before assisting on Lukaku's tally 12 minutes later. Lukaku, whose underwhelming performance in group play led to his benching on Tuesday, was also instrumental in creating De Bruyne's tally, as his size (221 pounds), strength and quickness overmatched the U.S. defenders.
Belgium completely dominated the Americans in that victory, outshooting them 38-14 (27-9 in shots on goal) and producing a corner-kick advantage of 19 to 4. For the tournament, the Red Devils have 81 total shots, including 55 on goal (68%). Belgium held a possession advantage in each of their first two games, with 65% possession versus Algeria and 53% against Russia, but possessed the ball for only 49% and 47% of the time in their most recent two matches. But they have also been extremely dangerous with their challenges with 72 fouls and five yellow cards issued to midfielders Moussa Dembele and Axel Witsel, and defensemen Vincent Kompany, Toby Alderweireld and Vertonghen.
But Belgium's defense remains top-notch, with the only two goals allowed this tournament coming off a penalty kick as the result of Vertonghen's silly decision to grab his opponent by the arm in the box, and a 107th-minute tally by the Americans in a match they led by two goals at the time. Red Devils goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois has shown that he is clearly one of the better netminders in the world, making five saves in the win over USA. Belgium's top-notch defense could give Argentina a lot of trouble, just like Switzerland did.
Belgium vs. Argentina Betting Preview and Pick
By: Hugh Wilson
Goal.com
Argentina and Belgium face off for the first time since 1986, with both sides looking to book their place in the last four in Brazil. After both sides managed to progress through their quarter-finals after extra time, they will need improved performances if they are to win the competition.
Despite neither side finding top gear so far, they both remain unbeaten in the competition, winning all three of their group matches.
Argentina come into this match after failing to score inside 90 minutes the first time in Brazil, drawing 0-0 with Switzerland in the last 16.
A late strike in extra time from Angel Di Maria was good enough to see them through in a game they dominated from the start. This result followed up three wins for Alejandro Sabella's men, beating Bosnia-Herzegovina, Iran and Nigeria. The LVH SuperBook price them at +115 to win again.
Belgium overcame a tricky group to find themselves in the knockout stages. Victories against Algeria, South Korea and Russia gave them a 100 per cent record before they faced USA in the last 16. An open match was eventually won in extra time by Marc Wilmots' men, with two goals in the first half proving good enough to progress despite a late rally from the US. The LVH price them at +250 to win, with the same firm pricing the draw after 90 minutes at +230.
The majority of the knockout matches so far in Brazil have been very tight and low scoring, with all nations keen not to throw the kitchen sink at teams as they don't want to risk too much.
Under 2.5 goals at -150 is a tad skinny and worth avoiding, despite few goals expected in the quarter-final. Instead, it's worth looking at the goalscorer market for a price that stands out.
Some shops have offered Barcelona star Lionel Messi as a short 3-to-1 to net the first goal, but it's the price of +105 for him to net anytime that appeals. Messi has scored four goals so far in Brazil, netting in three of his four matches. The 27 year-old looked the most likely to score in 90 minutes against Switzerland, and will be keen to get himself back on the score sheet.
Goal.com best bet: Lionel Messi to score anytime at +105
Netherlands vs. Costa Rica Betting Preview and Pick
By: William Duncan
Goal.com
The final place in the last four of World Cup 2014 will be decided in Salvador on Saturday night when Netherlands entertain Costa Rica (4 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Louis van Gaal's men are red-hot favorites to reach the semifinals, with the LVH SuperBook offering odds of -450 for the Dutch to qualify, while the 2010 World Cup runners-up are chalked up at -225 with the same firm to win inside 90 minutes.
Costa Rica, though, have already defied the odds to reach this stage of the competition and Jorge Luis Pinto's men will be eyeing another upset when they line up in Salvador on Saturday night.
The enormity of the challenge facing Los Ticos is underlined by the +375 price from the LVH for Costa Rica to advance to the last four while the same firm offers +675 for Pinto's side to prevail inside 90 minutes.
Louis Van Gaal's side struggled against Mexico last weekend but they can be backed at 11-to-8 outside of Vegas to triumph in the European handicap market (-1) in Saturday's quarterfinal tie.
Arjen Robben found himself in the center of a media storm after admitting that he dived against Mexico in the last round but the Bayern Munich winger's fine form means that he is capable of making the headlines for all the right reasons in Salvador on Saturday night.
The 30-year-old is available at an appealing 7-to-2 outside of Vegas to open the scoring this weekend while the LVH offers an appealing +130 that Robben finds the net at any time.
If Costa Rica are to cause yet another sensation in Brazil, striker Brian Ruiz is likely to be a key protagonist.
The Fulham frontman broke the deadlock against both Italy and Greece and the 28-year-old can be backed at a juicy 12-to-1 outside of Vegas to net the opening goal of the game on Saturday night.
Costa Rica have had a sensational World Cup but their adventure should be ended by Louis Van Gaal's classy Netherlands outfit.
The Dutch demolished Spain 5-1 in their opening match and, should they replicate that form here, they should blast past a Costa Rica side likely to be running on empty after their heroic last 16 victory over Greece.
The 23-to-20 price being offered for Arjen Robben to net at any time carries plenty of appeal here but it is the generous 11-to-8 price for Netherlands (-1) that is the recommended play for bettors this weekend.