Saturday's World Cup Tips
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Nigeria
It may seem strange to say it, but undoubtedly the most important match on Saturday sees Nigeria play Bosnia-Herzegovina at the Arena Pantanal in Cuiaba. The match will most likely decide who qualifies from Group F, with Argentina set to walk the group and Iran clearly the weakest side.
Bosnia put in a spirited performance on their World Cup debut as they went down to a 2-1 defeat by Argentina. Having started with a 4-2-3-1 formation, Bosnia switched to the 4-4-2 they had employed in qualifying. It yielded much better results, and there is a good chance Safet Susic's men will employ a more attacking initial approach against Nigeria.
The Super Eagles took part in the worst match of the opening round of group stage games: a turgid 0-0 draw with an unambitious, but resolute Iran side. There was a desperate lack of creativity in the Nigeria side. Jon Obi Mikel, used as a deep midfield stopper for Chelsea, is their most creative player, which says a lot. Their defence was largely untested by Iran, but this is a match Nigeria have to win, and their attack will have to do miles better than last time out.
Nigeria have several selection problems. Impressive centre-back Godfrey Oboabona is out with an ankle injury, while Kenneth Omeruo, pacy winger Ahmed Musa, and midfielder Reuben Gabriel could all miss out.
Bosnia, who were around the evens (+100) mark to win this game before the tournament started, are now at 37/50 to win with sportsbook.ag. Even though the price has shortened, given what we have learned about the two teams, it seems a good bet. Bosnia ran up 30 goals in 10 games in qualifying, while their defence exceeded expectations against Argentina. Nigeria are available at 15/4, with a draw chalked up at 11/4.
Nigeria were so limited going forward, and in goal Bosnia have an excellent stopper in Stoke City's Asmir Begovic, that I don't mind Bosnia keeping a clean sheet at 7/5. Over 2.5 goals is 91/100, while under 2.5 is 83/100.
In the first goalscorer market, it's Edin Dzeko leads the way at 7/2, but a better option may be his 5/1 strike partner Vedad Ibisevic. Ibisevic scored eight in qualifying, and came off the bench to score Bosnia's goal against Argentina. He is less well-known than Dzeko, but his goalscoring stats compare respectably to his partner.
Leading the line for Nigeria is Fenerbahce target-man Emmanuel Emenike, who is available at 7/1. He looked marooned for long periods against Iran, who stopped the supply lines to Emenike well. He is a relatively late developed: at the age of 27 he has only played 24 times for his country, but has notched up nine goals in that time. Transfer-listed Chelsea winger Victor Moses is 11/1 to break the deadlock.
Top Bets: Bosnia-Herzegovina to win at 37/50, Vedad Ibisevic to score first at 5/1
Argentina vs. Iran
The first game of the day sees possibly the biggest mismatch of the group stages, as Argentina meet Iran. Argentina had a dreadful first half against Bosnia, but with the introduction of an extra attacker in Gonzalo Higuain, they were much more dangerous after the break and won the game 2-1. Iran showed little attacking threat, but were resolute in a 0-0 draw with Nigeria which, unless Nigeria beat Bosnia, will mean that Carlos Queiroz's Iranians are bound to have something to play for in the last round of games.
Argentina are the overwhelming favourites at 11/100, with a draw at 17/2 and an Iran win, which would possibly constitute the biggest World Cup shock ever, is out at 23/2. Frankly, there isn't a lot of appeal in these prices. Argentina's favouritism is best summed up by the 21/20 available on them winning by 3 or more goals.
The best place to look for value is the first goalscorer market, where Gonzalo Higuain looks the best option at 4/1. His international goalscoring record, 20 in 36 games, is comparable to Messi and Aguero who are both at shorter prices, despite Higuain generally playing closer to the opposition goal.
Top Bet: Gonzalo Higuain to score first at 4/1
Germany vs. Ghana
The second game of the day is the third match in Group G. Germany, who thrashed Portugal 4-0, face Ghana who, despite having the best of their match against USA, went down to a damaging 2-1 defeat. They need a result here to keep up any realistic chances of progress to the last 16 for the third consecutive tournament.
Punters had avoided Germany in the run-up to the tournament, but Joachim Low's side delivered the perfect response to that scepticism with a dominant opening win. They are heavy favourites here at 13/50, while Ghana are 19/2. A draw is 5/1.
It may well be that Ghana have been underrated here. They have the best team ethic of all the African sides, and have the weapons to hurt a slightly suspect German defence. The fact that Portugal spent much of that game with ten men should not be forgotten when talking about Germany's win. Ghana were the most impressive team in African qualifying, and should be backed in the handicap market at 10/11 +1.5
Top Bet: Ghana +1.5 at 10/11
World Cup Game of the Day: Germany vs. Ghana
By Covers.com
Germany vs. Ghana (-333, +1000, Draw +900)
As well as Germany played in its tournament opener, the Joachim Low-led team is far more concerned with its second game which takes place Saturday against Ghana in Fortaleza. The Germans have won their second group stage match just once in the past five World Cups, and followed up 2010's opening 4-0 win over Australia with a 1-0 loss to Serbia. Low will have his roster focused against a Ghana side that fell 2-1 to the United States.
Germany's fate Saturday will rest, as always, on the shoulders of Thomas Muller. The gifted forward following up his brilliant performance in South Africa four years earlier with a hat trick in Monday's 4-0 victory over Portugal, giving him eight goals in seven career World Cup games. Ghana fought gamely against the Americans, but will be in tough against a German side that hasn't lost to the African nation in two all-time encounters.
WORLD RANKINGS: Germany: No. 2; Ghana: No. 37
INJURY REPORT: Germany: D Mats Hummels is considered questionable after leaving Monday's game with a thigh injury; MF Bastian Schweinsteiger is questionable after sitting out Germany's tournament opener with a knee injury. Ghana: MF Michael Essien is probable despite missing training earlier this week with a toe injury.
WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "The Germans arrived six weeks early in Brazil to a private training facility they built in preparation for this year's World Cup. It paid off in spades in a 4-1 opening romp over Portugal. Could be a different story against a hungry Ghana contingent. Key here is whether the reported unrest that lies within the team impedes Ghana's effort." - Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.
WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "With Italy losing today and Brazil drawing with Mexico, Germany is looking like a good pick to win this tournament at (+375). In this matchup against Ghana, Germany is the clear favorite with 73 percent of the money on the favorite. Our players are expecting another game in this World Cup going Over the posted total with 94 percent of the action on the 3.5-goal total." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.
ABOUT GERMANY: The team's history of stumbling through its second match of the tournament is well-documented - and for that reason, the players believe it won't be a concern against a spirited Ghana club. "That's warning enough for us," center-back Per Mertesacker told reporters ahead of what will be his 100th international appearance for Germany. "We know what we have to do and will go into the second game with all seriousness." The Germans haven't been knocked out of the group stage since missing the tournament altogether in 1950.
ABOUT GHANA: The offensive plan against the Americans earlier in the week was simple: attack along the wings and look to generate offense through well-placed crosses. And while that strategy worked marvellously - Ghana attempted and connected on more crosses than any other team in the opening game of the tournament - those setups only resulted in three of 21 shots landing on target. Ghana should meet more resistance in that approach but is expected to use its speed to try and beat the Germans on the counterattack - led by Boateng and Essien, if healthy.
TRENDS:
* All seven of Germany's goals in two all-time matchups with Ghana have come from the 60th minute onward.
* Ghana has been scored upon in five straight World Cup matches.
* Germany is 4-1-1 all-time in World Cup games vs. African opponents. Lone loss coming to Algeria in 1982.
* German F Miroslav Klose ranks second all-time in World Cup goals.
Nigeria vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina Betting Preview and Pick
By: William Duncan
Goal.com
Bosnia-Herzegovina may occupy the bottom spot of Group F after the opening round of fixtures but there is little doubt that Safet Susic’s side are favorites to join Argentina in the last 16 of World Cup 2014.
The European side can move a step closer to achieving that dream if they can claim all three points when they face Nigeria in Cuiaba on Saturday night (6 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Despite losing to Argentina last time out, Bosnia-Herzegovina are chalked up as -130 favorites with the LVH SuperBook to take a significant stride towards the knockout stages of the competition by claiming victory over their African opponents this weekend.
Nigeria produced a wholly unconvincing performance in a goalless draw with Iran on Monday night, and it is little surprise to see Stephen Keshi’s men available at chunky odds of +375 at the LVH to get the better of Bosnia in Cuiaba. The same book hangs +225 that the match ends in stalemate.
Manchester City striker Edin Dzeko is likely to spearhead the attack for Safet Susic’s side on Saturday. It is debatable as to whether the front man represents value at a skinny 10-to-3 to score the game's first goal, a betting proposition found outside of Las Vegas.
Vedad Ibisevic was on target in the defeat against Argentina, and the Stuttgart striker, who can be found at 4-to-1 to net the opening goal, will be hoping that he is rewarded with a starting berth should Susic adopt a more aggressive approach for Saturday’s crunch clash.
The European outfit leaked just six goals in 10 qualifying matches and will be confident of building on a solid performance against Alejandro Sabella’s side by seeing off Nigeria in their second Group F outing.
Given Bosnia-Herzegovina’s solid defensive record, there may be value in backing the chunky 11-to-4 odds offered outside of Nevada for Susic’s side to win a match featuring fewer than three goals.
However, bettors are advised to play safe ahead of Saturday’s clash, and the -130 odds for Bosnia-Herzegovina to claim all three points against Nigeria represents sufficient value this weekend.
Argentina vs. Iran Betting Preview and Pick
By: William Duncan
Goal.com
Argentina face Iran in Belo Horizonte on Saturday (12 p.m. ET, ESPN) knowing that victory will see them safely through to the last 16 of World Cup 2014.
Alejandro Sabella’s side – among the favorites to lift the trophy – are prohibitive favorites to see off Carlos Queiroz’s side this weekend, with the LVH SuperBook offering just -1100 odds for Argentina to claim all three points from their Group F meeting with the Asian side.
Iran held Nigeria to a goalless draw in their opening group match, but the game against Sabella’s men, of course, represents a massive step up in class for Queiroz’s side, and it comes as little surprise to see them chalked up at a massive 25-to-1 at the LVH to stage what would be one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history by beating Argentina.
Indeed, the enormity of the task facing Iran is underlined by the +925 odds for the match to end all square.
Iran have leaked just one goal in their last five matches and, subsequently, Argentina may require patience as they seek to break down the dogged defense of Queiroz’s charges in Belo Horizonte.
With that in mind, the 5-to-4 odds, found outside of Las Vegas, for Argentina to net the opening goal of the game after the 21st minute certainly carries plenty of appeal here, while the 6-to-4 odds for Sabella’s side to net exactly one first-half goal looks to represent decent value.
However, there is no doubt that Argentina should be far too strong for Iran this weekend and, with Queiroz’s side unlikely to offer any real attacking threat, the even-money odds for the South American giants to win both halves is outstanding value.
Applying the same theories to bets that are available in Vegas, UNDER 1.5 first-half goals may be worth consideration, but the -140 price is a bit rich.
A bet on Argentina -1 (-115) on the first-half line would contradict the opinion herein.
Reports from Argentina's training base suggest that the second favorites for the tournament will revert back to the more familiar 4-3-3 formation that they employed during the qualifying campaign.
That alteration should see Gonzalo Higuain restored to the starting lineup, which will come as a relief to bettors who have backed the Napoli frontman for the top goalscorer award.
The goal line at the LVH has Argentina laying 2 goals (-105), which may be tempting for those who believe that Sabella’s men will record an emphatic victory.
However, given that Iran have failed to find the net in three of their last five matches, the even-money offer outside of Nevada for Argentina to win both halves looks too big to resist here and it should be snapped up accordingly.
Best bet: Argentina to win both halves at even money.
Germany vs. Ghana Betting Preview and Pick
By: Hugh Wilson
Goal.com
After thrashing Portugal in their opening group match, Germany have set the bar high for the other sides who wish to challenge them for the World Cup this summer. Ghana are their opponents on Saturday (3 p.m. ET, ESPN), with the two sides meeting in South Africa four years ago, where a Mesut Ozil goal was good enough to give the Germans three points.
With an opening victory against Portugal already in the bag for Germany, a win today would put them on the verge of qualification.
Joachim Low's side looked extremely impressive against Portugal, with Thomas Muller once again rising to the occasion on the World Cup stage. In the end his hat-trick helped them to a 4-0 win. Unsurprisingly the LVH SuperBook prices Germany at -400 odds to win again.
Ghana were always on the back-foot against the USA last week after conceding in the first minute. Despite leveling up late, they couldn't keep the Americans out, who went on to win the match 2-1.
Akwasi Appiah's men are looking to emulate their run from South Africa, which saw them reach the quarterfinals where they were one penalty away from making it to the semifinals. A win is a must for the Black Stars, who will need to put in a performance of a lifetime. The LVH prices them at +975 to win, with the same firm pricing the draw at +400.
On the goal-line at the LVH, Germany is -1.5 goals (-120), and they are minus a half-goal (-140) on the first-half line. William Hill U.S. has them at -130 odds to win both the first and second halves (a full list of William Hill U.S. props is below).
With Germany's odds to too short to touch in the outright, half time/full time and goal-line market, it's worth looking at the total to find a bet that stands out.
Low's side to net OVER 2.5 goals at +110 odds, found outside of Vegas, could be one of the bets of the tournament. The Germans were fantastic against Portugal, creating numerous chances and netting four goals. With six goals scored against Armenia in the friendly before the finals, they come into Brazil in fine touch.
Germany dominated their qualification group, winning nine of their 10 matches, scoring a remarkable 36 goals. When you consider that the OVER 2.5 Germany goals would have paid out in nine of their 10 qualification matches, including against Sweden and Ireland twice, this price cannot be ignored against a Ghana side that possess plenty of pace going forward, looking defensively suspect in their opening game.
Applying the same principles to the betting market in Vegas, OVER 3 goals is worth backing at -105. A 3-0 German win would result in a push, so you'd have some built-in insurance against that scoreline.
Argentina favored big over Iran Saturday
By: Brian Graham
StatFox.com
Group F play of the 2014 World Cup continues on Saturday afternoon with Argentina heavily favored to pick up three points against Iran.
Argentina was also a big favorite to take out Bosnia-Herzegovina in their opening match, but barely escaped with a 2-1 victory. Iran is the clear underdog in Group F, but was able to keep Nigeria off the scoreboard in a 0-0 tie to open their tournament. These nations are meeting for just the second time ever, with the first matchup ending in a 1-1 draw in a friendly match in Madrid. Both teams will likely be missing one player, as Argentina's Rodrigo Palacio is questionable, while Iran's Sardar Azmoun is doubtful to play.
Argentina got on the board early against Bosnia-Herzegovina with a fortunate own goal at the three-minute mark, and then star Lionel Messi put the game away with a goal 65 minutes in. This was only Messi's second career goal in World Cup play despite this being his third such tournament, and he had an up-and-down match, especially with some inaccurate shooting and poor passing in the first half. The Maracana held their opponent scoreless until the 85th minute, but the outcome could have gone either way, as Bosnia-Herzegovina had the advantage in total shots (16-11), shots on goal (11-5) and corner kicks (6-2). Argentina did keep possession for 55% of the time though, and committed only 10 fouls. One of those fouls resulted in a yellow card for Marcos Rojo.
Iran was dominated in time of possession by Nigeria, 63% to 37%, but the other match stats were pretty even. Their opponents held a slight 10-7 shots advantage (6-3 on goal), and there was just one offsides called the entire match (on Iran). But the game was pretty physical with 34 fouls called (18 on Iran), and Andranik Timotian picked up the lone yellow card at the 75-minute mark. The club will look to Ashkan Dejagah to bring a stronger performance than he did in the opener when he made some subpar passes and created only a couple of scoring chances for his teammates. Iran will likely try to pack in the defense on Saturday and would gladly settle for scoreless tie versus the group favorites.
Bosnia-Herzegovina collides with Nigeria Saturday
By: Brian Graham
StatFox.com
Group F play of the World Cup continues on Saturday night when Bosnia-Herzegovina seeks a crucial win over sizable underdog Nigeria.
Bosnia-Herzegovina is desperate for a victory after losing its opening match 2-1 to powerhouse Argentina, while Nigeria looks to build on its 0-0 draw with Iran to open their 2014 World Cup journey.
Both teams know that a loss will most likely keep them out of the Round of 16, so both clubs should be attacking rather than settling for a tie. This will be the first time these countries have ever met, with Bosnia-Herzegovina seeking its first World Cup win, while Nigeria looks to end a 16-year win drought at this tournament, having gone nine straight World Cup matches without a victory. Both teams could be missing key players, as Nigeria defender Godfrey Oboabona is out with an ankle injury suffered in the Iran contest, while Bosnia-Herzegovina captain Emir Spahic (knee) and Sejad Salihovic (long-term injury) are both questionable for Saturday's match.
The Super Eagles were significant favorites over Iran, and were certainly the better team in that 0-0 draw. Not only did they hold possession for 63% of the match, but they outshot Iran 10-7, including 6-3 in shots on goal. Nigeria also produced seven corner kicks, compared to only two for their opponent, and did not get whistled for a single offsides or yellow card. Fouls were pretty even with Iran committing 18 fouls and the Super Eagles called for 16 fouls. One player that Nigeria needs to step up is Emmanuel Emenike, who failed to get either of his two shots on goal versus Iran. Emenike netted 15 goals in 32 club-level matches this season, and must make things happen for his team to finally earn a World Cup victory for the first time since 1998.
Bosnia-Herzegovina played very well in its first-ever World Cup match, putting a real scare in their opponent with 16 total shots, including 11 on goal, while Argentina managed just 11 shots and five on goal. The club also generated a 6-2 advantage in corner kicks against the heavy favorites, who got a lucky own goal at the three-minute mark of that match. Bosnia-Herzegovina trailed 2-0 after Lionel Messi scored 65 minutes into the contest, but kept attacking and finally scored on a Vedad Ibisevic tally at the 85-minute mark. This late goal should give them plenty of momentum and confidence to overcome an underdog Nigeria club. Miralem Pjanic played an outstanding match against Argentina, with very crisp passing to set up his teammates, while also playing nearly flawless defense. The first goal of this match will be vital for both of these clubs.
Germany looks to roll past Ghana Saturday
By: Brian Graham
StatFox.com
Group G play of the 2014 World Cup continues on Saturday afternoon with Germany heavily favored to defeat Ghana.
Germany was absolutely dominant in their opening match of the World Cup, knocking off Portugal 4-0 behind a hat trick by Thomas Muller. Ghana gave up a goal to the United States in the first minute and another in the 86th minute in a heart-breaking 2-1 loss to open group play. These two countries have only met twice, with the most recent meeting coming in group play of the 2010 World Cup when Germany escaped with a 1-0 victory. The other match was a 6-1 demolition by the Germans in a 1993 friendly. While Ghana are understandably huge underdogs, they can take solace in the fact that Germany's second group game has resulted in only one win in the past five World Cups. Both teams will likely be missing a player, as Germany defender Mats Hummels is doubtful with a thigh injury, while Ghana's Michael Essien is unlikely to start due to his lingering toe injury.
Germany may have won by four goals against Portugal, but the match stats were pretty even with both teams getting nine shots on goal and the Germans holding the ball for 54% of the time compared to 46% for their opponent. Corner kicks were 6-4 in favor of Portugal, who were already down 2-0 when Pepe picked up a red card. But there was no stopping Thomas Muller, who netted a penalty kick at the 12-minute mark, scored again just before halftime and completed his hat trick 78 minutes into the match. He now has an amazing eight goals in his seven career World Cup games. The other Germany goal versus Portgual came from Mats Hummels, who will likely be watching from the sidelines in this contest.
Ghana's result in their opening match was so disheartening because they really outplayed the United States, holding possession for 60% of the match and firing 21 shots (8 on goal) compared to the Americans eight shots (7 on goal). Ghana also had seven corner kicks (USA had 2), but was whistled for five offsides calls. Two Ghana players -- Mohammed Rabiu and Sulley Muntari -- also have to be careful not to pick up a yellow card like they did in that first match. Ghana's lone goal of the match came at the 82nd minute from Andre Ayew, assisted by Asamoah Gyan on a sweet back-heel pass. This duo won't see as many chances as they did versus the Americans, so they have to capitalize early to have a shot at pulling off the mammoth upset.