Saturday's World Cup Tips
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Brazil vs. Chile
Saturday is all about the South Americans. Two matches, four teams, and all from the host continent. It promises to be quite a day of soccer.
First up, Brazil play Chile at the Estadio Mineirão in Belo Horizonte. This looks like a wonderful match-up. Brazil have been far from convincing in the tournament so far. They were indebted to a dreadful refereeing decision to get them victory over Croatia in their first game, and then were unable to break down Mexico in a 0-0 draw. Even against Cameroon, a game they eventually won 4-1, there were moments when the Brazil back-line looked very shaky.
It has often been said, I think rightly, that Brazil beat teams on moments, rather than flow. So instead of having an individual style that is identified with the team, like Spain do, Brazil rely on moments of magic to win games. Now, those moments come from Neymar. In the past, it has been Ronaldo, Ronaldinho and Zico.
Chile have been hugely impressive so far, and they play with a relentless energy that makes them hugely appealing on the eye. The defence is leaky, and very very small. It is easy to see Chile having much the better of the game, but losing thanks to a header from a corner.
Brazil are 51/100 with sportsbook.ag to win the game in 90 minutes, and 1/4 in the Qualify from Tie market. These look far too short, and I feel Chile are the value for this match. They are 19/4 to win the game in 90 minutes, and 27/10 to qualify. However I’d prefer to back them in the handicap markets, where they Chile +1 is 7/5. Chile are the best team Brazil have faced so far, and I really would be amazed if we saw a thrashing.
In the first goalscorer market, even at a price as short as 7/2, Neymar looks tempting. He has shown that the unimaginable pressure on his shoulders does not affect him adversely. Some of his finishes have been fantastic. He seems to thrive off responsibility, and the fact that he is not the main man at Barcelona may go some way to explaining why he has has disappointed a bit in his first season. At the Nou Camp, Messi is king, not Neymar.
Top Bets: Chile -1 at 7/5, Neymar to score first at 7/2
Colombia vs. Uruguay
Colombia meet Uruguay in the second All-South American game on Saturday. What an occasion it will be at the Maracana. Both sides will be fantastically supported, and the atmosphere will be electric.
Colombia have put in three excellent performances so far at this World Cup. They won all three group games, scoring nine goals in the process. They showed just how little they miss Falcao; in fact, his absence allows them to play one up front, and it arguably strengthens Jose Pekerman’s side. James Rodriguez, used in a central role, has been possibly the Player of the Tournament so far.
In all the controversy surrounding Luis Suarez’s serial biting, Uruguay’s achievement in turning round their tournament from losing 3-1 to Costa Rica in their opening match has been overlooked somewhat. Both wins against Italy and Uruguay were typically Uruguayan: belligerent, brave and resolute. They are the eternal underdog, despite their great history in the World Cup.
While it is tempting to foresee another heroic Uruguayan display in adversity, Tabarez’s side will miss Suarez terribly. Edinson Cavani has been playing a kind of ‘advanced destroyer’ role at this World Cup, leaving Suarez the only real source of magic. They throw in the odd atrocious performance, and their indiscipline often costs them. If Colombia make a good start, Uruguay could unravel. They rely a bit too much on keeping it tight early on.
Colombia are the 91/100 favourites, and this price has shortened a lot since it was confirmed that Suarez would miss the rest of the World Cup. I still think there’s some value to be had. Colombia’s focus did not waver in their 4-1 win over Japan in a meaningless match, and they just look much better than Uruguay. In Juan Cuadrado they have a great winger, and Teofilo Gutierrez and Jackson Martinez are two fine options up front.
A draw is 27/10, with a Uruguay win in 90 minutes 59/20. In the ‘Qualify From Tie’ market, Colombia are 5/11 and Uruguay 17/10.
Top Bet: Colombia to win at 91/100
World Cup Game of the Day: Brazil vs. Chile
By Covers.com
Brazil vs. Chile (-175, +525, Draw +333)
Chile has lofty aspirations heading into Saturday's World Cup second-round match with host Brazil. But in order to advance to the round of eight for the first time since reaching the semifinals as the host nation 52 years ago, the upstart Chileans will need to do something they haven't done in their storied history - beat the Brazilians on their own turf. Chile rode victories over Australia and Spain to a spot in the final 16 before losing to the Netherlands.
The Brazilians cruised to first place in Group A, earning victories over Croatia and Cameroon and settling for a goalless draw against a game Mexican side. Yet, while the hosts appear to be the team to beat the rest of the way, Chile doesn't plan to be a pushover. "Brazil has often been Chile's nemesis but football changes, new generations come and new players appear," Chile midfielder Arturo Vidal said. "We've beaten (Spain), so we can beat Brazil."
WORLD RANKINGS: Brazil: No. 3; Chile: No. 14.
INJURY REPORT: Brazil: None; Chile: None.
WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "Visiting Brazil has not been kind to Chile in the past, in the last 26 games, Brazil have won 25 and drawn 1. The Selecao may not have impressed everyone so far in this competition, but we should expect to see them go from strength to strength. Some will argue Chile were rather fortunate to beat Australia and have only qualified due to Spain's abysmal campaign. We'll see who comes out the Victory on Sunday night." Covers Experts' Footy Tipster
ABOUT BRAZIL: The home team is loaded with talent, but it's clear to everyone on both sides of Saturday's matchup that Neymar is the key to their continued success. The world-class star shares the World Cup lead with four goals while leading the team in shots (11) and shot assists (six). The bigger concern for the Brazilians is ensuring that Neymar keeps it clean against the Chileans; he and Thiago Silva both have one yellow card, and a second would result in an untimely one-game suspension.
ABOUT CHILE: An opponent as creative and fundamentally sound as the Brazilians is dangerous enough - but the hosts may have a decided advantage in another area, and that has to concern the Chilean side. Chile has won less than 41 percent of its header matchups so far in the tournament, while Brazil enters the knockout stage having prevailed in better than 68 percent of its aerial showdowns. With 28 of 136 group-stage goals coming via the header, don't be surprised if a well-placed redirection decides this one.
TRENDS:
* Brazil has beaten Chile three times in as many World Cup meetings, with each one taking place in the knockout stage.
* Chile has dropped back-to-back second-round games at the World Cup, losing by a combined score of 7-1.
* Brazil is 8-1-1 all-time in World Cup matches against continental rivals.
* Chile has lost 20 games and drawn six on Brazilian soil.
Brazil heavily favored vs. Chile Saturday
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
In one of the opening matches of the knockout rounds, Brazil looks to please their home crowd Saturday with a victory over Chile, who finished second in Group B play.
Brazil was the favorite to win the World Cup and they have not disappointed their fans, coming out of Group A as the top seed. Now they must keep up their relentless attack because a loss will send them home. Prior to the tournament, Chile was considered to be one of the best offensive teams in the entire field. One thing that they showed was that their defense is more than ready to step it up as they look to upset Brazil in the Round of 16.
Brazil started off this tournament in the right way. After going down 1-0 against Croatia in the early going of their opening match, Brazil was able to score three unanswered to win the contest 3-1. In their second match, they were unable to score and came away with a 0-0 tie, as Mexico’s goalkeeping was just flawless for a full 90 minutes. Brazil won their final game 4-1 against Cameroon and now they find themselves up against a Chile team that has really turned some heads in the 2014 World Cup. Neymar has certainly lived up to the hype for Brazil, leading the squad in goals scored with four. He will need to continue to fire away as his team tries to continue advancing.
Chile got their tournament off to a great start, defeating Australia by a final score of 3-1. Their next match, however, they were the underdogs as they played against the 2010 champions in Spain. Chile, however, defeated Spain 2-0, and through two games their defense had allowed just one goal. After already clinching a spot in the knockout rounds, Chile lost 2-0 to a Netherlands team that has looked unstoppable at times during this tournament. For a team that was questioned for their poor defensive play, Chile are likely very satisfied with allowing just one goal per game.
Colombia battles Suarez-less Uruguay on Saturday
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
Uruguay takes on Colombia Saturday in the Round of 16 but they will be without their star player Luis Suarez, who was be booted from the tournament after biting an opponent in their last match.
Colombia didn’t have the strongest group in the World Cup, but they won it convincingly. The squad won all three of the matches they played and had a goal differential of +7. Uruguay dug itself into a small hole in group play by losing their first game, but when Luis Suarez returned from injury, it all changed. They won their last two games and earned a spot in the Round of 16, but now Suarez is banned from the remainder of the tournament.
Colombia took the field in their first match of group play and went against a Greece team that also made it to the knockout rounds. Colombia dominated that game, winning 3-0. Their next opponent was Ivory Coast, who they played a very tough game with but were still able to come away with a 2-1 victory. The third game they played was an absolute blowout, as Colombia defeated a Japan team that was still fighting for life by a final score of 4-1. James Rodriguez is leading the team in goals with three in the tournament. They will be up against a Uruguay team that is dangerous, but will be without their most important player.
Uruguay is a completely different team when Luis Suarez is on the field. In their first game of group play, they lost to an inferior Costa Rica team 3-1, as Suarez missed the match while recovering from a knee surgery. When he came back for their second game, however, the team started to put everything together. They defeated England 2-1 in their second game and then in a must-win battle with Italy, they were able to come away with a 1-0 victory. Now Uruguay waits for the fate of their star to be determined, but since he is not playing, they will take a major hit. Suarez keeps their offense together and he is the leader of the team, but his horrific display of sportsmanship puts his team as the heavy underdog on Saturday.
Brazil vs. Chile Betting Preview and Pick
By: Phil Kitromilides
Goal.com
The first match of the World Cup's knockout stages is without doubt the game of the round as hosts Brazil face a Chile side who have been one of the most enjoyable to watch in the tournament so far.
La Roja disposed of reigning champions Spain before succumbing to a slightly harsh 2-0 defeat to Netherlands and, if we have learned one thing from seeing Jorge Sampaoli's side play, it is that they will without doubt give it a go.
Yet they are clear underdogs, with the LVH SuperBook offering them at +525 odds to win in 90 minutes.
Brazil, meanwhile, who began to look the part in their final group game against Cameroon, are available at -185, and the draw priced at +310.
With Chile possessing an exciting, attacking brand of football and Brazil capable of turning on the style, it seems only likely that we should expect goals.
OVER 2.5 goals is offered at -130 at the LVH, but more tempting is the price of -120 for both teams to score, which seems a little generous.
Most people would expect Brazil to find the back of the net in 90 minutes (despite failing to do so against Mexico) so logic therefore dictates that we are taking the price of -120 for Chile to score and, when put like that, it becomes even more appealing.
La Roja were the second highest scorers in South American qualifying and put two past a shell-shocked Spain in Group B.
They are a side who create plenty of chances and, if they can take just one of them, this should prove to be a profitable selection.
Bet of the day: Both teams to score at -120.
Colombia vs. Uruguay Betting Preview and Pick
By: Phil Kitromilides
Goal.com
Given the nature of the draw Colombia always knew their likely topping of Group C would lead to a tricky last 16 clash and in Uruguay Jose Pekerman's side face a team they know well.
La Celeste defeated both England and Italy to finish second in Group D and face a side they have consistently got the better of over the last few years.
Yet despite winning five of their last eight games with Los Cafeteros, Uruguay are the outsiders at the LVH SuperBook, priced at +330 for the win.
That is in large part to Colombia's form in the tournament so far with three wins andnine goals.
They are an adventurous, talented side and many will be rushing to invest in the LVH's price of -115 for them to win.
That price looks even more tempting when you consider that Uruguay are to be without Luis Suarez and when the Liverpool forward is not in La Celeste's starting lineup they certainly lack bite, as demonstrated in their opening clash with Costa Rica.
Indeed, Oscar Tabarez's men have relied heavily upon the striker and while Edinson Cavani remains a huge presence in attack, the Paris Saint-Germain player is at his best when linking up with Suarez as shown during Uruguay's win over England.
Therefore, backing Colombia makes sense. They are full of goals and full of confidence, while Uruguay will most likely be missing their best player and the man most likely to cause the Colombians problems.
In qualifying for Brazil 2014, Uruguay netted 25 goals, 11 of which were scored by Luis Suarez. His absence will be a massive blow for Uruguay not only because of his goal scoring prowess but also the confidence that his talismanic presence brings to the side.
Colombia are priced at -175 to advance to the next round but bolder bettors should take the +110 odds for them to win in 90 minutes.