World Cup Game of the Day: Germany vs. Argentina
By Covers.com
Germany vs. Argentina (+130, +250, Draw +225)
Maracana will be the site of a World Cup final rubber match Sunday afternoon as Germany and Argentina face off for world soccer supremacy. The Germans have rolled to the final on the strength of an offensive juggernaut that trampled the host Brazilians 7-1 in a stunning semifinal result and has racked up 17 goals in the tournament. Argentina is led by one of the best players on the planet in Lionel Messi, but needed penalties to subdue the Netherlands.
The storied soccer powers have met twice before in a World Cup final, with each side boasting a victory. Argentina bested what was then West Germany in the 1986 final in Mexico, while a unified Germany returned the favor four years later in Italy. Germany has also dominated the most recent World Cup matches between the teams, earning a victory on penalties as the host in 2006 and cruising to a 4-0 victory at the last World Cup in South Africa.
WORLD RANKINGS: Germany: No. 2; Argentina: No. 5.
INJURY REPORT: Germany: None; Argentina: MF Angel di Maria will miss the final with a thigh injury.
WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "The thrashing of Brazil has made the Germans odds on favorites to lift the World cup in Rio on Sunday, but let's not be too quick to name the Germans champions, Argentina have been almost impeccable in defense at this World Cup, and they have the best player in the World at their disposal." - Covers Experts' Footy Tipster
WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "After completely destroying the host Nation Brazilians 7-1 in the semi finals the Germans come into this finals match-up against Argentina looking to claim their 4th World Cup title. But a very tough defensive team in Argentina stands in the way with one of the best players in the world Lionel Messi, who is capable of changing the game at any time. As of writing this the favorite German squad is seeing 66 percent of the action to win in regulation and the over 2.5 goal total is seeing 62 percent of the action so far. Our futures market on odds to win has Germany at -180 with 20 percent of the action and Argentina +157 with 15 percent of the action." - Michael Stewart of Carbonsports.ag
ABOUT GERMANY: No team in the tournament boasts a better midfield than the Germans, who have struck the most precise balance of offensive creativity and defensive responsibility with its four-man unit of Mesut Ozil, Toni Kroos, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Sami Khedira. The Germans are expected to be completely healthy, which allows manager Joachim Loew a full complement of players to try and put pressure on a stingy Argentine defense. The duo of Miroslav Klose and Thomas Muller has combined for 26 career World Cup goals, and remains dangerous.
ABOUT ARGENTINA: While the Argentines have enjoyed a sensational run to the final, there are concerns over Messi's inability to convert in the knockout round. The FC Barcelona superstar has certainly had his share of chances, and did lead the way for Argentina with four goals during group stage play. The absence of di Maria has no doubt stunted Argentina's offensive capabilities, but with an airtight defense anchored by Manchester City teammates Martin Demichelis and Pablo Zabaleta, they may only need one against Germany.
TRENDS:
* Germany owns a 4-1-1 edge in World Cup encounters.
* Argentina has scored just one goal on a set piece in six games; the Germans have scored three goals on set pieces.
* The Germans have finished in the top-3 in each of the previous three World Cups.
* Argentina has gone 330 minutes without allowing a goal.
Argentina vs. Germany Betting Preview and Pick
By: Phil Kitromilides
Goal.com
If revenge is a dish best served cold, then Argentina have a chance to serve up a plate of freezing cold retribution this weekend against the side that defeated them the last time they made it to the World Cup final.
Twenty-four years ago saw a pre-unification West Germany overcome the Albiceleste by a solitary goal to nil in the ugliest of showpieces. Neutrals will be hoping for a more aesthetically pleasing encounter Sunday at the Maracana in Rio de Janeiro (3 p.m. ET, ESPN).
After their historic dismantling of Brazil in the semifinal, Germany are the clear favorites at the LVH SuperBook, which is offering +120 odds on them to win in 90 minutes, while Argentina can be backed at 5-to-2 (+250) and the draw priced at +225.
To win the game outright, Germany is priced at -165 at the Las Vega bet shop, with Argentina offered at odds of +145.
That Germany are favorites, of course, is not solely down to their exceptional performance in the previous round, but more to do with the balance and belief of Joachim Low's side.
They have controlled every match they have contested and play as a supreme unit comprised of talented individuals.
They have no one in the same bracket as Argentina's Lionel Messi (few teams do), but the relentlessly high standards of the likes of Tomas Muller, Sami Khedira and Mats Hummels make Germany overall stronger than their South American opponents.
They are defensively supreme and brutally ruthless in attack, a combination which was shown in all its glory in that now legendary night in Belo Horizonte against the hosts.
Quite simply Germany should win, and the price for them to do so in 90 minutes will no doubt attract plenty of attention.
This, however, has been an extremely unpredictable World Cup, which has necessitated a slightly more cautious approach to wagering, particularly in the knockout stages.
At the risk of stating the obvious, if the Germans are to win without penalties they will need to score. Therefore, the price of -120 for them to do so before 61 minutes (offered outside of Las Vegas) is highly tempting.
This selection has paid out in five out of Germany's six games in the tournament, and while Argentina have not conceded a goal since the group stages, the Europeans have a swaggering relentlessness about them which inspires the confidence to back them to score a goal inside the first hour of Sunday's final.
Props available at Vegas’ SuperBook that warrant consideration based on the same theories, albeit at lesser value, include Germany being the first team to score (-145) and OVER 1 total goal by Germany (-145). All of the LVH’s odds and props for Sunday’s final are listed in the document below.
Goal.com bet of the day: First Germany goal before 61 minutes at -120 odds.
Germany favored in WC Final
By Sportsbook.ag
Germany vs. Argentina
Kickoff: Sunday, 3:00 p.m. EDT
Venue: Estadio Maracana
Location: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Sportsbook.ag Line:
Germany +110, Argentina +265, Tie after Regulation +235
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +157, Under -178)
After humiliating host Brazil in the semifinals, Germany looks to finish off its World Cup run with a victory over Argentina in the championship match on Sunday in Rio.
Both of these nations have won multiple World Cup titles, with each one beating the other in the finals. Germany won the tournament in 1954, 1974 and 1990 when they outlasted Argentina 1-0 in the last game. The Maracana hoisted the Cup in 1978 and 1986 after defeating the Germans 3-2 in the championship.
But that was the only time Argentina has ever beaten Germany in World Cup play, as the Germans hold a 4-1-1 advantage over the Maracana.
In all meetings, Argentina has nine wins to Germany's six wins, with both countries scoring exactly 28 goals against one another.
Germany is the favorite in this third championship meeting after they dismantled Brazil 7-1 in the semifinals.
Argentina is a perfect 6-0-0 in the World Cup, but won each of its first five matches by one goal, before needing penalty kicks to decide a 0-0 draw with the Netherlands in the semifinal round.
The one key injury in this match is Argentina starting midfielder Angel di Maria, who is 'doubtful' to play due to a thigh injury he sustained in the quarterfinals that kept him off the field in the semifinal win.
Germany started off its World Cup with 4-0 victory against Portugal, but struggled a bit in the next few games where they tied Ghana 2-2, barely beat the U.S. 1-0, survived Algeria 2-1 and held off France 1-0.
But in the semifinal round, the Germans wasted no time finding the back of the net versus Brazil, scoring five times in the first 29 minutes. Germany actually lost possession for the first time in the entire tournament by a slim 51% to 49% margin, but put 12 of its 14 shots on goal.
But Brazil had more total shots (18) and shots on goal (13), forcing star keeper Manuel Neuer to make 12 saves. Neuer has allowed a mere four goals over six matches in this World Cup.
In the six tournament games, Germany has scored 17 goals on 64 shots on target, and in the past four contests, Germany has fired 64 total shots, with 49 going on goal (77%). The team has been very disciplined as well, committed only 71 fouls (11.8 per match) with four yellow cards for the entire tournament.
Thomas Muller has been the leading goal scorer for the Germans during Cup play with five tallies. Andre Schurrle has three goals, while Toni Kroos, Mats Hummels and Miroslav Klose have each scored twice. Klose's goal at the 23rd-minute mark versus Brazil set the all-time Cup record for goals with 16.
The Maracana have scored a total of eight goals, with superstar Lionel Messi contributing four of those tallies and also an assist. The other key goals for Argentina during Cup play have been scored by Marcos Rojo (game-winner versus Nigeria) and Gonzalo Higuain (lone quarterfinal goal).
Although Argentina has not dominated in this tournament as many experts expected they would versus a perceived weak schedule, before losing possession 53% to 47% versus the Dutch, they won possession in the first five matches with 55% against Bosnia-Herzegovina, a whopping 70% versus Iran, 57% against Nigeria, 61% versus the Swiss and a slight 51% advantage against Belgium.
The Maracana have also fired 47 shots in the knockout stage with 34 going on goal (72%). But against the Netherlands, they took only eight shots and had as many offsides called against them as corner kicks (4 each). But after generating only two corner-kick chances in their World Cup opener, they have produced 42 corner kicks over the past five contests, totaling 20 in the three knockout-stage wins.
The Maracana played a very clean tournament in group play with only 24 total fouls and one yellow card (Rojo). However, in the knockout stage, they have been whistled for 40 fouls, including five yellow cards (Rojo, di Maria, midfielder Lucas Biglia and defenders Ezequiel Garay and Martin Demichelis). Rojo was not allowed to play in the quarterfinals because of his two yellow cards, but he was able to help his team win its semifinal match.