Sunday's World Cup Tips
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
South Korea vs. Algeria
Both South Korea and Algeria came away from their first games with great credit for how they played, but both will be a little disappointed at the result. A hard-working South Korea outplayed Russia for long periods of their 1-1 draw. Algeria, meanwhile, made a mockery of their status as supposed group whipping-boys by leading Belgium until the 70th minute, before losing 2-1. They can now not afford to lose this. However, having probably been the weakest team at the 2010 World Cup, the Algerians come to Brazil with some real attacking talent. They could really surprise people in what is a relatively weak group.
South Korea are made the favourites by bookmakers at 6/5, with Algeria at 9/4 and the draw a similar price at 12/5. There is little room for manoeuvre in these prices, so it may be worth turning to the over/under markets for some value. Here, I find it surprising that over 2.5 is as long as 5/4.
This is a game both teams would badly like to win and, given what we have seen so far at this World Cup, both teams will go for it. While centre-forward is a problem position for the Taeguk Warriors, they create plenty of chances, and Algeria have some superb creative midfielders in Sofiane Feghouli, Riyad Mahrez and Yacine Brahimi.
Top bet: Over 2.5 goals at 5/4
Belgium vs. Russia
Two European sides go head to head in Sunday’s first match as Belgium play Russia. Belgium had a tough time getting past Algeria. They eventually won 2-1, with the introduction of Marouane Fellaini crucial. Russia were involved in a rather boring 1-1 draw with South Korea.
There is a good chance Fellaini could start, along with another substitute who scored in Dries Mertens. Manager Marc Wilmots may leave out disappointing Spurs duo Mousa Dembélé and Nacer Chadli. A substitute also scored for Russia: the much-maligned (unfairly, in my eyes) Aleksandr Kerzhakov could well start against Belgium, with Aleksandr Kokorin moved out wide.
Belgium are 87/100 favourites, with Russia at 31/10, and I have this down as a low-scoring game. Both teams find it hard to break down stubborn defences and both strikers, Romelu Lukaku and Kerzhakov, are good players but do waste plenty of chances. Under 2.5 goals at 77/100 is an appealing bet.
In the First Goalscorer market, odds of 9/1 about Fellaini show just how impressed bookmakers and punters were with his contribution against Algeria. Dries Mertens is available at 7/1, while Aleksandr Kerzhakov may make a bit more appeal at 6/1.
Top bet: Under 2.5 goals at 77/100
United States vs. Portugal
The biggest game on Sunday in the 2014 World Cup may well decide who goes through from Group G, as USA play Portugal in the steamy heat of the Arena Amazônia, in Manaus. Portugal need to win, while a draw would give USA a great chance of qualifying. A win for Klinsmann’s men would all but guarantee progress to the last 16 for the second World Cup in a row. The stakes could hardly be higher, and fans all across the nation will be gripped to their television screens.
For Portugal, who were hammered 4-0 in their opening game by Germany, there are a number of selection issues. Key defenders Pepe and Fabio Coentrão are unavailable through suspension and injury respectively, while there are still some niggling doubts over the fitness of star man Cristiano Ronaldo. Rest assured though - unless Ronaldo can barely walk, he will play. Portugal need their talisman.
For the US, Jozy Altidore’s tournament tragically ended with a hamstring injury in the win over Ghana. San Jose Earthquakes target-man Chris Wondolowski looks set to step in. His international record is good, with nine goals in 21 games, and he has the ability to hold up the ball, which will be particularly useful in a game where the US will certainly not dominate possession.
So, to the betting. Portugal are the favourites at 4/5 with sportsbook.ag. Since the opening round of matches this priced has eased out from 4/6, but this does not seem an accurate representation of what we saw. Portugal were an indisciplined mess, over-reliant on an unfit Cristiano Ronaldo, while the USA showed their mettle with a brave victory over a talented Ghana side. A USA win is at 29/10, but I’m going to go with a draw at 57/20. This is a result USA would take, and the way they dug deep to come away with victory over Ghana suggests to me that this is a team capable of digging out big results.
In the first goalscorer market, I love the look of Wondolowski at 10/1. He will almost definitely play, and his goalscoring record in the MLS is to be envied - 80 in 140 games at San Jose.
The other options in the market don't look great.
For Portugal, Ronaldo is a 9/4 shot, but for someone who's not 100% fit that doesn't look good. Otherwise, their goalscoring options look pretty thin. All three recognised strikers they have - Hugo Almeida, Eder and Helder Postiga - are not great goalscorers.
Wondolowski, who is 6'1", will be massively helped by the fact that Pepe is suspended. The USA rely a lot on crosses for their chances, and Wondolowski will get chances, particularly with Portugal left-back Fabio Coentrão injured. He will also have the advantage that he plays as a loan striker, and so will not have to ‘share’ his chances with a partner.
Top bet: Draw at 57/20, Chris Wondolowski to score first at 10/1
World Cup Game of the Day: Portugal vs. USA
By Covers.com
Portugal vs. USA (-143, +425, Draw +300)
One of the most highly anticipated games of the World Cup group stage takes place Sunday evening as Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal face the upstart Americans at Arena Amazonia in Manaus. The Portuguese need a victory to have any chance of advancing out of Group G, while the U.S. would love to build upon its tournament-opening win over Ghana. But both teams are dealing with significant injury concerns - Ronaldo's the most notable.
Ronaldo is nursing a knee injury that has fueled speculation around the globe, but he's expected to suit up for a Portuguese side that is reeling from a 4-0 trouncing at the hands of a superior German side on Monday. Portugal will need Ronaldo to be at his best against an American side that looked impressive in a 2-1 victory in its opener. But the U.S. will be shorthanded after losing gifted striker Jozy Altidore to a hamstring strain against Ghana.
WORLD RANKINGS: Portugal: No. 4; USA: No. 13.
INJURY REPORT: Portugal: F Cristiano Ronaldo is working through a knee injury but is expected to play Sunday; D Pepe earned a red card against Germany and will miss the contest; D Fabio Coentrao will miss the remainder of the tournament with a groin injury. USA: F Jozy Altidore has a strained hamstring and will sit out the contest; F Clint Dempsey suffered a nasal fracture against Ghana but is expected to play; D Matt Besler was removed in the opener with a hamstring issue but isn't expected to miss any time.
WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "After being pasted by Germany in their opening matchup Portugal looks to keep their tournament alive by beating a U.S. squad that is battling some injuries. The U.S. needs at least a draw in this match up to keep their tournament hopes alive as they face the very tough German squad on Thursday. With the win over their nemesis Ghana our bettors are all over the U.S. to win this game with 72 percent of the action backing the US and betting the over trend continues as 79 percent of the action in on the over for the 2.5 goal total." - Michael Stewart of Carbon Sports.
ABOUT PORTUGAL: The talk of the tournament on the Portuguese side has been the fitness of Ronaldo, who participated in the majority of his team's training session Wednesday but was seen with his left knee heavily protected. Reports had circulated that the global superstar was putting his career in jeopardy by playing; that report has since been dismissed. Portugal should also be concerned about its suddenly thin defense, which will be without Pepe and Centrao; Ricardo Costa and Andre Almeida are expected to start in their place.
ABOUT USA: Coach Jurgen Klinsmann is a master of unpredictability - and the absence of Altidore will make it even more difficult to guess what strategy the Americans will use Sunday evening in Manaus. The Americans will likely go with either Aron Johannsson or Chris Wondolowski in Altidore's place; no other major changes are expected. Klinsmann is no stranger to Sunday's foe, having been at the helm of the German team that upended Portugal 3-1 to claim third place at the 2006 World Cup.
TRENDS:
* The teams are even at two wins and a draw apiece in five all-time meetings, with each side scoring five goals.
* Ronaldo has taken 55 shots in his World Cup career but has scored just twice.
* The Americans have only two shutouts in their previous 24 World Cup games.
* Portugal has just one victory in its last eight World Cup contests.
Algeria vs. South Korea Betting Preview and Pick
By: Al Hain-Cole
Goal.com
After failing to secure three points in their respective openers, South Korea and Algeria come face to face in Porto Alegre on Sunday in a potentially decisive clash.
Despite scoring their first World Cup goal in 28 years to take the lead against Belgium, Vahid Halilhodzic's men fell victim to second-half comeback to finish empty-handed and are +185 outsiders at the LVH SuperBook to come out on top here.
Meanwhile, the Taegeuk Warriors also let a one-goal lead slip in their 1-1 draw against Russia but are +130 favorites to put themselves in a strong position with victory in this second game.
That result was the Korean's second draw in three World Cup fixtures, and you can get odds of +230 at the same book that they share the spoils once again.
While they more than matched a stronger Russian side in their opening match, Hong-Myung Bo's side rarely looked like scoring until opposing goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev let a speculative long-range shot slip through his grasp and into the net.
This lack of cutting edge is sure to be tested by a strong defensive outfit at the Estadio Jose Pinheiro Borba, where the Fennec Foxes will look to show the same resilience they displayed for long periods against a talented Belgian team.
Marshalled by captain Madjid Bougherra in the center of defense, Algeria sat on a lead earned from the penalty shot after almost their only attack of the match to keep their opponents at bay until the 70th minute.
Considering South Korea have failed to score in four of their previous six matches, these tactics are likely to prove more effective against a less incisive attacking force in a low-scoring game.
With this in mind, William Hill U.S. is offering -130 odds on OVER 2 goals being scored in this match.
Belgium vs. Russia Betting Preview and Pick
By: Al Hain-Cole
Goal.com
Belgium will be looking to secure a place in the knockout stages of the World Cup when they take on Russia in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday.
Having come from behind to beat Algeria 2-1 in their opener, Marc Wilmots' men -110 favorites at the LVH SuperBook to seal a spot in the next round with one game to spare by coming up with a win here.
On the other hand, the Sbornaya could only manage a 1-1 draw with South Korea in their first match and are +310 underdogs to collect all three points against their much-fancied opponents.
Alternatively, there are odds of +250 available on Fabio Capello's side playing out yet another draw that would leave their World Cup future hanging in the balance.
For all of the talk of being potential dark horses coming into the tournament, Les Diables Rouges were hardly impressive in their opener against Algeria.
After going a goal down to a first-half penalty, Wilmots' team looked labored for long periods against a resolute defense before eventually finding the breakthrough with two goals in the final 20 minutes.
Wilmots will no doubt respond to any criticism regarding his side's inability to find the net sooner by suggesting that an ability to fight until the end was a key feature of their successful qualification campaign, and is merely a mark of their character.
Indeed, with goals having been scored after the 72nd minute in 11 of Belgium's last 13 matches, even odds -- offered outside of Vegas -- seem generous on the net bulging in the final 18 minutes or so once again when they take on a team expected to defend resolutely for much of the game.
That bet looks particularly safe considering it has paid off in three of Russia's previous four matches, including the 1-1 draw with South Korea that seemed to spring to life in the final 20 minutes after an edgy opening period.
USA vs. Portugal Betting Preview and Pick
By: Hugh Wilson
Goal.com
Portugal and USA meet in the tricky conditions of Manaus (6 p.m. ET, ESPN), with both teams having contrasting starts to the World Cup. Whereas Paulo Bento's men were thrashed by Germany, USA started off like a rocket against Ghana, scoring an early goal before eventually winning 2-1 courtesy of a dramatic late winner.
A victory for Jurgen Kilnsmann's men tonight will secure qualification into the next stage and could potentially set up a mouth-watering clash with Germany for top spot in Group G.
The USA came into the finals full of confidence, winning three warm up games in the lead up to the tournament, which followed up a convincing qualifying display, where they topped the CONCACAF group.
That campaign saw them win seven of their 10 matches to finish above Costa Rica, Honduras and Mexico, and the LVH SuperBook prices them at +300 odds to win this match.
Portugal have a huge amount to do if they are to progress in the tournament after a disappointing start against Germany. Not only did they lose 4-0, but Pepe was sent off and fellow Real Madrid star Cristiano Ronaldo didn't look 100 percent fit.
After progressing through to Brazil through the play-offs, beating Sweden over two legs, Bento will not want to see his side go home early. They are priced at -110 at the LVH to win, with the same book pricing the draw at +275.
Throughout their qualifying campaign, USA only lost two matches, both away from home in tough conditions of Costa Rica and Honduras.
Apart from those results, Klinsmann's men had a fantastic record, beating the likes of Mexico and winning the home ties against Costa Rica and Honduras. With Portugal looking far from assured in their opening match, the double chance bet of USA/draw at 6-to-5 – a prop found outside of Vegas – certainly seems tempting (at venues that don’t have this prop available, bettors could simply wager on the USA to win and the draw).
Instead, it's a longer price that stands out in this fixture. USA come into this match full of confidence in-front of goal.
The Stars and Stripes have netted at least twice in six of their last seven matches. With Portugal struggling to keep goals out in their qualifying group, conceding two or more against Northern Ireland, Sweden and Israel, as well as the four they conceded against Germany, the price of USA to score over 1.5 goals at +300 certainly is worth a small investment.
Again, that’s not a bet found at Vegas shops, but the total is 2.5 goals, with OVER priced at -110 at William Hill U.S., and 'Will both teams score' is -125 for 'yes' and -105 for 'no'. All of William Hill’s props for the game are below.
South Korea meets Algeria Sunday afternoon
By: Brian Graham
StatFox.com
Two teams desperate for a win will clash on Sunday afternoon when Group H play continues with South Korea facing underdog Algeria.
Neither team was able to win its World Cup opener, as Algeria fell 2-1 to a heavily-favored Belgium squad, while South Korea earned a 1-1 tie with Russia. Both teams still have a chance to reach the Round of 16, and a win on Sunday will go a long way in getting to that knockout round. But the Taeguk Warriors will still be missing midfielder Ha Dae-sung due to ligament damage in his left foot.
South Korea held the possession advantage against Russia (52% to 48%), but was outshot 16-10 by their opponent, including 10-6 in shots on goal. Corner kicks were an even 4-4, and the Taeguk Warriors were very disciplined with zero offsides calls and just seven fouls committed, compared to Russia's 15 fouls. However, South Korea picked up three yellow cards with forward Son Heung-min and midfielders Ki Sung-yueng and Koo Ja-Cheol all getting booked. Should any of this trio get another yellow card on Sunday, he would be unable to play in the final game of the group stage. South Korea knows it will get some counter-attack chances when Algeria pushes forward, but this game should not see more than two goals total.
Algeria failed to score a goal in the entire 2010 World Cup, but it took the club only 25 minutes to tally against Belgium with Sofiane Feghouli's penalty kick. However, the team had zero shots on goal the rest of the match and finished with only three total shots. In contrast, Belgium took 16 shots (10 on goal) and two scores coming at 70 minutes and 80 minutes. Algeria was also dominated in possession (65% to 35%), and both clubs were quite physical on their challenges with Algeria whistled for 18 fouls while Belgium was called for 20 fouls.
Belgium looks to carry momentum Sunday vs. Russia
By: Brian Graham
StatFox.com
Belgium and Russia both look to get a leg up in Group H play when the clubs meet Sunday afternoon in Rio.
Both countries actually trailed 1-0 in their World Cup openers, but Belgium was able to score a pair of goals late in a 2-1 win over Algeria. Meanwhile, Russia was able to tally an equalizer late in its match to pick up a vital one point against South Korea in a 1-1 tie. Although Belgium is a substantial favorite, it could be missing two key players for Sunday's match. Team captain and defender Vincent Kompany is questionable with a groin ailment, while the prognosis is more promising for midfielder Eden Hazard who suffered a bruised toe in the victory over Algeria.
Belgium may have been held without a goal for 69 minutes against Algeria, but it wasn't for a lack of chances. The club attempted 16 total shots to just three for their opponents, as the Belgians put 10 of their shots on goal while Algeria's only shot on goal was its penalty-kick tally. Belgium also dominated possession 65% to 35%, and produced seven corner kicks to just two for Algeria. Although the match was very physical with 38 fouls (20 by Belgium), the Belgians picked up only one yellow card when Jan Vertonghen grabbed an opponent by the arm in the box, resulting in that penalty kick. But Belgium got a huge boost from its bench, as both goal-scorers were second-half substitutes. Midfielder Marouane Fellaini opened the scoring with a gorgeous header off a perfect cross from Kevin De Bruyne. Ten minutes later, Dries Mertens scored the game-winner off a beautiful pass from Eden Hazard. Belgium is bigger and stronger than its Sunday opponent, but Russia has great quickness and is the more desperate team.
Russia showed great mettle in forging a tie versus South Korea, whose only goal came when Russia goalie Igor Akinfeev let a seemingly harmless shot go right through his hands at the 68th minute. But just six minutes later, Alexander Kerzhakov was able to find the back of the net off when he was inside the goalie box after a failed clearing attempt by South Korea hit Russia's Andrey Eshchenko in the chest and landed right on Kerzhakov's foot for an easy goal. That was one of 16 total shots for Russia, which put 10 of those attempts on goal. South Korea managed only 10 total shots and six on goal. Russia did lose time of possession by a small 52% to 48% margin, but corner kicks were an even 4-4. Russia committed 15 fouls in the match, with its lone yellow card issued to Oleg Shatov.
USA tries to knock out Portugal on Sunday
By: Brian Graham
StatFox.com
After getting thrashed in its opening match of the 2014 World Cup, Portugal faces a must-win situation Sunday night when it takes on a confident United States squad.
The Americans scored a goal in the first minute of their tournament opener and after allowing the equalizer at the 82-minute mark, John Brooks Jr. regained the lead for the U.S. just four minutes later with the game-winning goal for a crucial 2-1 victory. Meanwhile, Portugal was thumped by Germany 4-0, as Thomas Muller netted a hat trick. In addition to the poor result, Portugal is now dealing with a knee injury to star forward Cristiano Ronaldo, which could keep him off the field on Sunday. Portugal will definitely be without two key defenders in Fabio Coentrao (groin injury) and Pepe (red card). However, the United States will be missing starting striker Jozy Altidore, who is likely finished for the 2014 World Cup because of a left hamstring injury. Although the Americans are a sizable underdog on Sunday, these teams are 2-2-1 with five goals apiece versus one another in their past five meetings.
Although the United States picked up a key three points against Ghana, the club was outshot 21-8, but only 8-7 in terms of shots on goal. Ghana possessed the ball 60% of the time and produced seven corner kicks, compared to just three for the Americans. But the U.S. did play a very disciplined match, committing only 12 fouls with zero cards and one offsides call. Midfielder Clint Dempsey opened the scoring in the first 30 seconds of the game with the fifth quickest goal in World Cup history, and well before reserve defenseman John Brooks Jr. won it at the 86-minute mark with his header off a Graham Zusi corner kick. Dempsey might play with a protective mask over his face after breaking his nose in the win over Ghana. Altidore will certainly be missed, as he has scored 22 goals in 70 matches with the U.S. team, and it's not clear who will replace him. The most likely options are Aron Johannsson and Chris Wondolowski. Johannson is younger (23) and faster, but Wondolowski (31) has more experience and is better ball-striker with 80 goals over the past five MLS seasons.
Portugal will be eliminated from knockout-round contention with a loss, but the Seleccao do not want to settle for a tie here. If Ronaldo's knee prevents him from playing, look for Heider Postiga to take his place. Postiga has netted 27 goals in 69 matches since 2003. Portgual will also ask more offense out of midfielders Andre Almeida and Joao Moutinho. Despite the 4-0 losing result, Seleccao actually outshot Germany 14-13 with both teams putting nine of those shots on goal. And the score was only 2-0 before Pepe was given a red card for head-butting at the 37-minute mark, putting his team in a no-win situation playing down a man for more than 50 minutes. Portugal also had more corner kicks (six) than Germany (four), and ball possession was a nearly even split at 54% for Germany and 46% for Portugal. Seleccao has to put the first match behind them, and it is imperative for them to strike first in this must-win contest.
USA looks for another win
By Sportsbook.ag
United States vs. Portugal
Sportsbook.ag Line
Portugal -129, United States +290, Tie +315
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over -125, Under -105)
After getting thrashed in its opening match of the 2014 World Cup, Portugal faces a must-win situation Sunday night when it takes on a confident United States squad.
The Americans scored a goal in the first minute of their tournament opener and after allowing the equalizer at the 82-minute mark, John Brooks Jr. regained the lead for the U.S. just four minutes later with the game-winning goal for a crucial 2-1 victory. Meanwhile, Portugal was thumped by Germany 4-0, as Thomas Muller netted a hat trick. In addition to the poor result, Portugal is now dealing with a knee injury to star forward Cristiano Ronaldo. Portugal will definitely be without two key defenders in Fabio Coentrao (groin injury) and Pepe (red card). However, the United States will be missing starting striker Jozy Altidore, who is likely finished for the 2014 World Cup because of a left hamstring injury. Although the Americans are a sizable underdog on Sunday, these teams are 2-2-1 with five goals apiece versus one another in their past five meetings.
Although the United States picked up a key three points against Ghana, the club was outshot 21-8, but only 8-7 in terms of shots on goal. Ghana possessed the ball 60% of the time and produced seven corner kicks, compared to just three for the Americans. But the U.S. did play a very disciplined match, committing only 12 fouls with zero cards and one offsides call. Midfielder Clint Dempsey opened the scoring in the first 30 seconds of the game with the fifth quickest goal in World Cup history, and well before reserve defenseman John Brooks Jr. won it at the 86-minute mark with his header off a Graham Zusi corner kick. Dempsey might play with a protective mask over his face after breaking his nose in the win over Ghana. Altidore will certainly be missed, as he has scored 22 goals in 70 matches with the U.S. team, and it's not clear who will replace him. The most likely options are Aron Johannsson and Chris Wondolowski. Johannson is younger (23) and faster, but Wondolowski (31) has more experience and is better ball-striker with 80 goals over the past five MLS seasons.
Portugal will be eliminated from knockout-round contention with a loss, but the Seleccao do not want to settle for a tie here. If Ronaldo's knee prevents him from being his normal self, watch out for Heider Postiga. Postiga has netted 27 goals in 69 matches since 2003. Portgual will also ask more offense out of midfielders Andre Almeida and Joao Moutinho. Despite the 4-0 losing result, Seleccao actually outshot Germany 14-13 with both teams putting nine of those shots on goal. And the score was only 2-0 before Pepe was given a red card for head-butting at the 37-minute mark, putting his team in a no-win situation playing down a man for more than 50 minutes. Portugal also had more corner kicks (six) than Germany (four), and ball possession was a nearly even split at 54% for Germany and 46% for Portugal. Seleccao has to put the first match behind them, and it is imperative for them to strike first in this must-win contest.