World Cup Game of the Day: Mexico vs. Netherlands
By Covers.com
Mexico vs. Netherlands (+280, +110, Draw +250)
The Dutch machine rolled through group play at the World Cup, and has history on its side as they prepare to face Mexico in elimination-round action Sunday afternoon. The Netherlands set the tone with a 5-1 thrashing of the defending champions from Spain, then completed a perfect group run with a 3-2 triumph over Australia and a 2-0 shutout of Chile. Mexico has reached the second round of the tournament for the sixth straight time.
Holland leads the World Cup in scoring and was one of only three teams to win every game in the group stage - capping a stretch of nine wins and one draw since the beginning of the qualification stage. Mexico is well aware of the Netherlands' recent successes, and acknowledge that they're in tough. "Holland are a team that plays like a computer, very intelligent, and we must be careful of all of them," Mexican goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa said.
WORLD RANKINGS: Mexico: No. 20; Netherlands: No. 15.
INJURY REPORT: Mexico: MF Jose Juan Vazquez is unavailable after picking up two yellow cards in group play. Netherlands: MF Leroy Fer likely won't play after suffering a hamstring injury in training; D Bruno Martins Indi continues to recover from a concussion and is questionable for Sunday.
WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "Mexico have not had much luck in the 2nd round of World Cup tournaments since USA '94, they've been knocked out on every occasion since the 94 finals, they'll have to be rock solid in defense if they're going to stand a chance against the formidable Dutch attack." Covers Experts' Footy Tipster
WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "One of my favorite teams in this tournament the Netherlands walked through the group stage going 3-0 and scoring 10 goals while only giving up 3. Sunday they face a tough Mexico team that was the 2nd qualifier from Group A. The favorite Netherlands team is seeing majority of the action at 75% to win this match, while with the high scoring Netherlands team the over 2.5 goal total is seeing 87% of the action. The Netherlands are now 11-2 to Win the World Cup, while Mexico is 22-1." Michael Stewart of Carbonsports.ag.
ABOUT MEXICO: Ochoa has been the star of the event for the Mexicans, posting a clean sheet in the tournament-opening 1-0 victory over Cameroon and single-handedly earning them a single point with a pair of ridiculous saves in a 0-0 draw with the host Brazilians. He was appropriately named man of the match, and his confidence level is at an all-time high going into the game against the high-powered Dutch. "We respect (them) as we do with all of the other teams, be we know that they are among the favorites to win the Cup and that does not scare us, it motivates us," he said.
ABOUT THE NETHERLANDS: The Dutch duo of Arjen Robben and Robin van Persie have rightfully been the focus of the tournament, but the work of Ajax defender Daley Blind has been just as critical. Blind recorded three assists in the group stage - including a 50-yard cross-field pass that set up van Persie's sensational goal against Spain - while leading all defenders at more than five tackles per game and boasting a team-best 87.9 percent pass success rate. Most importantly, Blind leads a stout Netherlands defense that conceded just three goals in the competition.
TRENDS:
* Mexico has failed to advance past the second round stage all five times since 1994.
* Netherlands are 9-1 in their last 10 World Cup matches.
* Robben has eight goals in his last nine international appearances.
* Mexico attempted just 28 shots in three games, the fewest of any Group A team.
Sunday's World Cup Tips
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Netherlands vs. Mexico
This quarter of the knockout stages of the World Cup is probably the weakest. Netherlands are the favourites, but for Costa Rica, Greece and Mexico it is a fantastic opportunity to get to their first World Cup semi-final.
The first game of the day sees the Netherlands meet Mexico at the Estadio Castelão in Fortaleza. Many tipped the Dutch to be the major big-name flop at this World Cup, but while fellow big-name Europeans Italy, England, Portugal and Spain fell by the wayside in the group stages, Louis van Gaal’s Oranje won all three group games, including a fantastic 5-1 over Spain in the third game of the tournament.
Mexico have gone out at the last 16 stage in each of the last five World Cups, and they will be desperate to go one step further this time. They were hugely impressive in Group A, winning seven points from three games. After managing a 0-0 draw with hosts Brazil, they secured qualification thanks to an excellent 3-1 win over Croatia.
The Netherlands are the 19/20 favourites with sportsbook.ag, and this looks decent enough to back. The Dutch defence has exceeded expectations so far, and in Arjen Robben and Robin van Persie they have two geniuses in the final third. They will also be helped by the fact that van Persie missed their last group game through suspension, and will be fresher for this tie as a result. Mexico are 14/5 to win the match in 90 minutes, while a draw is 13/5.
In the ‘Qualify From Tie’ market, the Netherlands, who have now lost in three finals without ever winning the World Cup, are 20/37, with Mexico 8/5.
One name stands out to me in the first goalscorer market, and it is Arjen Robben, who is quoted at 9/2 to break the deadlock. He has three already this tournament, and his dribbling will really test Mexico defenders who, while able to organise themselves well, are suspect when one-on-one against good dribblers. They aren't very quick either. Robben plays more centrally for the national team than in club football, and I can see him continuing his fine World Cup here. He has shown in the last year and a half that he can turn up in big games, and as one of the most accomplished finishers in the game, seems a great bet at the price offered.
Top Bet: Arjen Robben to score first at 9/2
Costa Rica vs. Greece
The second match of the day and the fourth match of the last 16 is, incredibly, Costa Rica vs Greece. Both sides were favourites to finish bottom of their group, with Costa Rica defying quotes of 50/1 on them winning a tough-looking Group D. These are, on paper, arguably the weakest two sides left in the competition. One of them will end up one game away from the World Cup semi-final, something they could barely have imagined before the tournament started.
Greece did exactly what they did in Euro 2012: after two poor performances, they still found themselves just needing to win their last group game to qualify. And they did just that, defeating the Ivory Coast 2-1 thanks to a last minute penalty from Giorgios Samaras. Amazingly, it was Samaras’s first international goal in two years. He has been a regular up front in that time,
Costa Rica were undoubtedly more impressive in the group stages than Greece, and so have been made favourites at 5/4. Greece are 12/5, with a draw 23/10. This is the shortest price on a draw in any of the last 16 ties.
With the tie likely to go to extra time, it may make more sense to look at the ‘Qualify From Tie’ market, where Greece are 23/20, and Costa Rica 20/27.
I feel Greece may have the edge here. They will need to stay fairly conservative. Even though ‘it’s only Costa Rica’, an attacking strategy simply does not suit Greece’s players. They defend deep, and spring counter-attacks. They have already kept Japan to a 0-0 with ten men, and they shouldn't find Costa Rica much harder to defend against. They have two fine centre-backs, while the three midfielders offer them ample protection.
Don’t expect goals. When Greece won Euro 2004, they won all three knockout games 1-0, beating the holders, the best team and the hosts in quick succession. Under 2.5 goals is strikingly short at 39/100, with over 2.5 at 1/1.
Giorgios Karagounis, at 37 years-old, is still a vital player in Greece’s midfield, connecting defence with attack. This Greek side is very unafraid of shooting, and Karagounis has a powerful shot on him. He constantly pops up with important goals for his country, and you could do a lot worse than backing him to score first at 20/1.
Top Bets: Greece to Qualify at 23/20, Giorgios Karagounis to score first at 20/1
Mexico vs. Netherlands Betting Preview and Pick
By: Hugh Wilson
Goal.com
Two sides who have stood out in the World Cup so far meet in the round of 16 after progressing through their groups.
Netherlands won all their matches to top a tricky-looking Group B, thrashing Spain in their opening match before battling past Australia in a five-goal thriller. Louis van Gaal's men finished off their group with another impressive victory, this time over Chile.
Mexico, like Netherlands, also had a tough group. Miguel Herrera, who has been an entertaining watch on the sidelines, orchestrated three solid results in Group A, with El Tri beating Cameroon before drawing with hosts Brazil and then beating Croatia to qualify.
Despite a tough qualifying campaign to get to Brazil, the Mexicans have certainly made the most of their time at the finals. The LVH SuperBook prices them at +255 to win.
Netherlands are currently on a five-match winning run after their result against Chile. Despite missing their top scorer, Robin van Persie, against La Roja, Oranje still found the net twice to take maximum points from Group B.
Van Gaal will be delighted with having beaten Chile after a poor showing against Australia, despite claiming the three points. The LVH prices them at +110 to win, with the same firm pricing the draw at +230.
Considering their form coming into this match, it is tough to see past Netherlands doing the job in Fortaleza. Mexico have been strong in the competition but, with the fire power of Van Persie and Arjen Robben, who has been exceptional in this competition, the price on the Europeans to win at +110 is certainly worth investing in.
It is also worth looking at the Dutch's record in World Cups in recent years. They have won nine of their last 10 matches, with Spain's victory in the final in South Africa four years ago their only defeat, so odds-against prices for Sunday's match look well worth backing.
Greece vs. Costa Rica Betting Preview and Pick
By: William Duncan
Goal.com
Neither Costa Rica nor Greece were expected to feature in the knockout stages but, having progressed to the last 16, the two nations will go head-to-head in Recife on Sunday (4 p.m. ET, ESPN) with a place in the World Cup quarterfinals at stake.
Costa Rica have been the surprise package of the tournament thus far, topping Group D ahead of more illustrious opponents in the shape of Uruguay, Italy and England and, Jorge Luis Pinto’s men will be desperate to ensure that their World Cup dreams are not ended by Fernando Santos’ side on Sunday.
Los Ticos are chalked up as favorites to advance to the last eight of the competition, with the LVH SuperBook offering odds of -135 for Costa Rica to advance. They are +140 favorites with the same bet shop to win Sunday’s match inside 90 minutes plus injury time.
Greece, though, will represent stiff opposition, and the 2004 European champions are chalked up at +115 with the LVH to reach the last eight, while the book offers a juicy +230 that Santos’ side win inside 90 minutes. The draw is available at +200.
Santos’ side have scored just two goals in Brazil thus far but the Greeks have picked up their form considerably since slumping to a 3-0 loss at the hands of Colombia in their opening match of the tournament.
Costa Rica have kept a clean sheet in each of their last two matches – a sensational 1-0 win over Italy followed by a hard-fought 0-0 draw with England – and it is no surprise that the oddsmakers are anticipating a low-scoring encounter in Recife.
The total at multiple Las Vegas sports books is 2 goals, with UNDER priced as the -130 favorite and the OVER listed as the +110 dog.
The LVH is also offering alternate totals, with 1.5 goals posted as OVER -165/UNDER +145, and 2.5 goals offered at OVER +200/UNDER -240.
Santos’ side appear to have been vastly underrated by the oddsmakers ahead of their meeting with Costa Rica, and the 11-to-10 odds for Greece in the double chance market (win or draw), found outside of Vegas, is generous here.
However, better value lies in backing the 2004 European champions to end the dreams of Los Ticos in Recife, and Greece should be supported at a juicy +115 to reach the last eight of World Cup, no matter if takes overtime and/or penalties.
Bet of the day: Greece to qualify at +115
Netherlands, Mexico collide on Sunday
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
The Netherlands went undefeated in Group B play and will now face Mexico in a win-or-go-home situation on Sunday.
The Netherlands have been one of the best teams in the entire World Cup and they will now have to defeat a Mexico team that has one of the hottest goaltenders in the entire tournament. Mexico looks to upset the Netherlands after allowing just one goal total in Group A play. Despite winning two of their matches, their most impressive contest was probably a tie against Brazil.
Right off the bat, the Netherlands made it known to the world that they were going to be a difficult out for anybody in this tournament. In their opening match of group play, the team blew out defending champion Spain 5-1, and followed that up with a 3-2 victory over Australia. In their final match of group play, they played a little less aggressive and defeated Chile 2-0. Against Mexico, they will need to generate some excellent chances. They will be going up against a goalie that is on fire and it will not be easy to beat them if they can’t get any good looks.
Mexico didn’t really impress many people in a 1-0 victory over Cameroon, but their next match against Brazil really put them on the map. Mexico came out of that game with a 0-0 tie, but Guillermo Ochoa’s performance showed that it will be extremely difficult to defeat this team. He made some outstanding saves, and it’s now in the heads of his opponents, as they know it will take a perfect opportunity to put a ball past him. In their third game, Mexico defeated Croatia 3-1 to advance, and they will now play against a Netherlands team that appeared to be very passive in their win over Chile. Mexico will need to come out and be aggressive early on to win.
Costa Rica looks to stay hot Sunday vs Greece
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
After surprising many by winning Group D, Costa Rica will face Greece in the Round of 16 on Sunday.
Costa Rica got a very tough draw, going into a group that was loaded with all three opponents having been past World Cup champions. That didn’t throw off the Ticos, however, and they were able to come away with a group-leading seven points to advance to the Round of 16. Greece didn’t play very well in their group, but they did just enough to earn themselves a spot in the knockout round. They will now face a Costa Rica team that was not considered to be anything special before the start of the tournament.
Costa Rica turned a lot of heads with their performance in group play. They opened up the tournament with a 3-1 victory over a Suarez-less Uruguay team. In their second game, they defeated heavily-favored Italy 1-0. In their final game, they played against an England team that was already eliminated. The game ended in a 0-0 tie and Costa Rica picked up a point. While this team isn’t as talented as others, they have played some very good defense throughout the tournament. They will now go up against a Greece team that didn’t do much to impress anybody in their group matches.
Greece’s tournament got off to a rather unimpressive start. They opened up against Colombia and got blown out 3-0. In their next contest, they played against Japan and the game ended in a 0-0 tie. The point they picked up in that game, however, ended up getting them into the knockout rounds. Greece would win their final match 2-1 against Ivory Coast to give them a total of four points. Their group was rather lousy and they were fortunate to make it to the knockout rounds, but they now have a golden opportunity to make it to the next round as Costa Rica is very beatable. After surprising many by winning Group D, Costa Rica will face Greece in the Round of 16 on Sunday.