World Cup Betting News and Notes
Atssportsline.com
It doesn't get any bigger or better than Thursday, June 26 from Brazil, where there are four huge matches. There's not any bigger than Germany vs. the United States, though Ghana vs. Portugal is big as well. FIFA will play those games at the same time so as not to affect either outcome. The later games are also impactful as Group H is looking for somebody to come out of the stage other than Belgium, the likely winner.
Ghana vs. Portugal
Both teams are desperate here and they can't play a defensive-style game. They both have four points so a draw does nothing. Portugal trails the U.S. by five in goal differential, but Ghana is down by just two. Portugal is due to play their best game of the tournament, even with star Cristiano Ronaldo's health being a question mark. Ghana is not to be taken lightly as they have a very strong attack. Athletic winger Andrew Ayew leads the way for Ghana with two goals through two matches. World Cup Odds: Portugal: +105. Ghana: +230. Draw: +265. Total: 3.0.
United States vs. Germany
American coach Juergen Klinsmann takes on his home country and what should be one of the most dramatic matches of the tournament. Both teams need a draw, especially the U.S. to advance. In fact, with Germany having a +4 goal differential, they are pretty much a lock barring a blowout loss here and a blowout win by Ghana. The U.S. doesn't want to rely on some help from Ghana or Portugal. They need to keep this low-scoring to avoid from being eliminated as they have just a +1 goal differential. Germany has a weakness at left back and in central midfield especially Benedikt Howedes. He was outplayed by Ghana's Christian Atsu on Saturday and Fabian Johnson has been dangerous down the right flanks for the U.S. The United States needs to figure out a way to slow down Thomas Muller, one of the best finishers in the world. World Cup Lines:Germany is a -175-money line favorite. Total: 2.5.
Algeria vs. Russia
Algeria has been one of the surprises of the tournament. They can advance from group play for the first time in their history. They scored four goals against South Korea to put themselves in position to advance to the next stage. Russia did stay close with Belgium, falling by one goal. With just one point, Russia needs a win and some help. Algeria is healthy and striker Islam Slimani could be starting after getting a goal and an assist against South Korea after starting for the first time. Midfield/forward Sofiane Feghouli, a star for Valencia, has a goal and assist so far and is ready for a breakout game. World Cup Soccer Odds: Russia: +110; Algeria: +235. Draw: +250. Total: 2.5.
Belgium vs. South Korea
Belgium can win Group H with a win over South Korea. They looked just good but not great in a 1-0 win over Russia. Eden Hazard is the sparkplug for Belgium as he now has set up two game-winning goals in group play. He fed Dries Mertens for the second goal against Algeria in the first game an then found Divock Origi in the 88th minute against Russia. South Korea is reeling from its 4-2 loss to Algeria. Their defense was non-existent against Algeria and they are going to have to play much better to keep up with Belgium. Not only do they need a win but they have to score in bunches to have a shot at advancing. 2014 World Cup Lines: Belgium is a -145-money line favorite. Total: 2.5.
World Cup Game of the Day: Germany vs. USA
By Covers.com
Germany vs. USA (-150, +900, Draw +210)
After coming within seconds of punching their ticket to the knockout round of the World Cup, the crestfallen American team must quickly regroup as they face a daunting showdown with Germany at Recife's Arena Pernambuco on Thursday afternoon. The U.S. surrendered a late goal to settle for a 2-2 draw with Portugal, and needs a win or a draw to assure itself an automatic berth in the next round. Germany is coming off a stunning 2-2 draw with Ghana.
Not only do the Americans need to come up big against a German side that has dominated the all-time head-to-head matchup, it will need to do so without one of its top offensive players. Jozy Altidore will miss the game with a strained left hamstring, and his creativity and speed will be sorely missed with the tough German defense waiting. U.S. head coach Jurgen Klinsmann is no stranger to Thursday's foe, having made 108 international caps with Germany.
WORLD RANKINGS: Germany: No. 2; USA: No. 13.
INJURY REPORT: Germany: D Jerome Boateng suffered a hip injury in the first half of Saturday's draw with Ghana but is expected to play; F Thomas Muller suffered a head injury late against Ghana but will play; MF Sami Khedira has a strained left knee and is questionable. USA: F Jozy Altidore has been ruled out with a strained left hamstring; D Matt Besler tweaked his hamstring in the Americans' previous game but will play Thursday.
WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "Dare the Germans and USA play out a draw to see them both qualify? They can't be caught by Ghana or Portugal with a point. Die Mannschaft of course have dismissed any chance of settling for a draw, despite Joachim Loew and Jurgen Klinsman being close friends. How will it play out?" Covers Expert Footy Tipster.
WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "A HUGE game for the USA, with a win or tie to get them into the round of 16. Germany looking to lock up top spot in the group. With the USA listed at +650, we are seeing the majority of the action come in on them at that number, while Germany has seen some god action as of late. We would like to see this match end in a draw as both teams will move on and the Germans would win the group. With the USA moving through to the next round the interest is only going to grow, which will be great for our volume as the tournament draws to an end." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.
ABOUT GERMANY: Jogi Low's decision to go with 22-year-old World Cup novice Shkodran Mustafi in place of the hobbled Boateng played a major role in Germany having to settle for a demoralizing single point against Ghana.Mustafi failed to provide adequate resistance on Andre Ayew's game-tying header in the 54th minute, and the Ghanaians used the subsequent momentum shift to take a brief lead before Germany equalized. The Germans continued their trend of underperforming in the second game of the group stage, winning just one of their last six since 1994.
ABOUT USA: Klinsmann knows what his team needs to do to advance to the next round - a draw would suffice - but he's only thinking in terms of winning. "We want to beat Germany and be first in our group," he told reporters after the Portugal draw. ""We know a tie gets us through, too, but our goal is to beat Germany and be first in our group in order to play the second of (Group H)." The U.S. showed dramatic improvement from one match to the next, controlling the ball just 38 percent of the time against Ghana but increasing that to 48 percent versus Portugal.
TRENDS:
* Germany has won six of the nine meetings between the teams.
* The Americans prevailed 4-3 in their previous meeting in a friendly last June in Washington, D.C.
* German F Miroslav Klose needs one goal to become the leading scorer in World Cup history.
* The Americans completed 85 percent of their passes against Portugal, a vast improvement from their 72 percent success rate vs. Ghana.
Thursday's Group G Play
By Sportsbook.ag
United States vs. Germany
Sportsbook.ag. Line
Germany -144, United States +650, Tie +125
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over -109, Under -120)
After letting a chance to win Group G slip away with a goal allowed in the 95th minute, the United States and Germany are still in the driver's seat to advance to the next round when the two clubs meet on Thursday.
The Americans nearly had their second straight 2-1 victory to open the tournament, but a horrendous giveaway in midfield by Michael Bradley allowed Portugal to score the equalizer on the last kick of the game. Germany also had a chance to clinch the group, but had to settle for a 2-2 draw with heavy underdog Ghana. Both teams will advance on Thursday with a tie, and Germany (+4 goal differential) will likely get through to the Round of 16 even with a loss to the Americans.
The United States could also lose and get through with a Ghana/Portugal tie or a Portugal win by less than three goals. But if the U.S. loses and Ghana wins by at least two goals, the Americans would be sent home. The United States will still be missing starting striker Jozy Altidore, who is likely finished for the 2014 World Cup because of a left hamstring injury. The head coach of the Americans knows this German side very well, as Jurgen Klinsmann has both played and coached Germany in past World Cups.
The Americans have been led by forward Clint Dempsey, who scored a goal in the first 30 seconds of the tournament opener, broke his nose later that game, and also scored at the 81st minute against Portugal with what looked to be the game-winner at the time. John Brooks Jr. and Jermaine Jones have the club's other two goals in the World Cup.
USA has been outshot badly in this tournament by a combined total of 41-23, but are an even 17-17 in terms of shots on goal with nine corner kicks compared to 11 for their opponents. The Americans have also lost the time of possession in both matches, holding the ball for only 40% of the time versus Ghana and 48% of the time versus Portugal.
But the United States has been whistled for only 23 fouls and two offsides in the World Cup and their only booked player was Jones picking up a yellow card versus Portugal. It will be interesting to see how star midfielder Michael Bradley bounces back from a match in which he failed to score a point-blank opportunity with the goalie out of net (his shot was blocked by a Portugal defender) and turned the ball over in the final minute to allow Portugal to force a tie. But the U.S. has to be confident in the play of goalie Tim Howard, who has made some brilliant saves this tournament, especially versus Portugal.
Germany has scored six times in the World Cup with Thomas Muller netting half of those goals against Portugal. Muller, who also has an assist during the tournament, has eight goals in eight career World Cup matches.
Mats Hummels, Mario Gotze and Miroslav Klose have the other tallies for the Germans, with Klose's tally marking his 15th career World Cup goal, which ties Ronaldo for the all-time record. Germany possessed the ball for 54% of the time versus Portugal and 59% of the time versus Ghana, and hold an 11-9 edge in corner kicks on their opponents.
But Germany has been outshot by a hefty 34-24 margin in total shots for the tournament (19-15 in shots on goal). With the Germans needing only a tie to win this group, expect them to employ a more defensive game plan on Thursday.
Portugal vs. Ghana
Sportsbook.ag. Line
Portugal +135, Ghana +177, Tie +260
Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (Over +155, Under -188)
Group G play of the 2014 World Cup wraps up on Thursday afternoon with Portugal and Ghana both needing a win and some help to push through to the Round of 16.
Portugal is quite a longshot to advance due to their minus-4 goal differential, but if they can beat Ghana 3-0 and have Germany beat the United States by a 2-0 margin, they will advance to the knockout stage. Ghana would only need to win 2-0 over Portugal plus a 1-0 Germany victory over the U.S. to reach the Round of 16.
Both of these clubs are coming off somewhat surprising draws, as Portugal needed a goal in the 95th minute versus the United States to keep its chances intact of advancing, while Ghana played heavily-favored Germany to a 2-2 draw in its last match. Ghana's Michael Essien is unlikely to start again due to his lingering toe injury, but Portugal should see an improvement on their back line with the return of Pepe who missed the last game after his silly head-butt to Germany's Thomas Muller.
Portugal, referred to as Seleccao, saw star Cristiano Ronaldo play a horrible match versus the US due largely to a lingering knee injury, but he still found a way to serve a perfect cross to the head of Silvestre Varela in the final minute of stoppage time to help his team earn a draw and keep small hopes alive for moving on in this tournament. Nani opened the scoring in that epic draw with an easy goal five minutes in off a horrible clear by the American defender.
Although Portugal carries a minus-4 goal differential due to getting waxed 4-0 by Germany in the World Cup Opener, the team has outshot both of its opponents, holding a 20-15 total shots advantage over the U.S. after outshooting Germany 14-13. But of Seleccao's 34 shots in the World Cup, only 18 have been on net. Portugal has also been pretty even in ball possession, holding a slim 52% to 48% advantage over the Americans after allowing the Germans to have a 54% possession.
Ghana, known as The Black Stars, really put the pressure on the Germans in their last match with 20 total shots, including 10 on goal. Germany attempted only 11 shots with six on goal. That gives Ghana 41 total shots (18 on goal) for the tournament while limiting their opponents to a paltry 19 total shots (13 on goal). Ghana's 4-3-3 formation and excellent goaltending by Fatau Dauda could cause trouble for Portugal's erratic attack.
The Black Stars did lose possession time to Germany by a substantial 59% to 41% margin, which was just the opposite of their first game when they held the ball 60% of the time versus the Americans. But Ghana has played extremely rough in this tournament with 27 fouls and three yellow cards. Two of those cards went to midfielder Sulley Muntari's whose booking in the 94th minute of the battle of Germany will earn him a one-game suspension. Midfielder Mohammed Rabiu also has to be careful not to pick up another yellow card like he did in that first match.
Ghana's lone goal of their first match came at the 82nd minute from Andre Ayew, assisted by Asamoah Gyan on a sweet back-heel pass. This duo was at it again versus Germany with one goal each -- Ayew tallying at the 54th minute, and Gyan scoring nine minutes later.
Thursday's Group H Play
By Sportsbook.ag
South Korea vs. Belgium
Sportsbook.ag. Line
Belgium -140, South Korea +350, Tie +295
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over -105, Under -125)
Group H play concludes on Thursday with heavily-favored Belgium needing only a draw with desperate South Korea to win the group.
South Korea was pummeled 4-2 versus Algeria in their most recent game, but still have a mathematical chance at advancement due to a 1-1 tie earned in the tournament opener. But the Taeguk Warriors need to beat the Red Devils by at least three goals and hope that Russia beats Algeria in a game played simultaneously with this one. Belgium, which won both of its matches so far (2-1 versus Algeria and 1-0 over Russia), needs only a draw to assure themselves of being the group champion, and a they could still take Group H with a loss combined with an Algeria defeat or draw.
South Korea held the possession advantage against both Russia (52% to 48%) and Algeria (54% to 46%), but has been outshot 31-19 in the World Cup, including 18-12 in shots on goal. They didn't attempt a single shot during the first half of their loss to Algeria. The Taeguk Warriors have been very disciplined this tournament with only one offsides call and just 20 fouls committed, compared to 31 fouls for their opponents. However, South Korea has amassed five yellow cards already with defenseman Lee Yong and midfielder Han Kookyoung picking up cards versus Algeria to join forward Son Heung-min and midfielders Ki Sung-yueng and Koo Ja-Cheol all getting booked in the World Cup opener. Hueng-min and Ja-Cheol were the goal scorers versus Algeria and will try to spend most of their time in the Belgium half of the field for a Taeguk Warriors team desperate to tally at least three goals on Thursday.
Belgium has a pedestrian three goals in two World Cup matches -- all from substitute players (midfielders Marouane Fellaini, Dries Mertens and forward Divock Origi), but they have created several great chances with 27 total shots, and 17 of those winding up on net. The Red Devils have also held a possession advantage in each game, with 65% possession versus Algeria and 53% against Russia. But they have also been extremely dangerous with their challenges with 34 fouls and three yellow cards issued to midfielder Axel Witsel and defensemen Toby Alderweireld and Jan Vertonghen. But Belgium's defense remains top-notch, with the only goal allowed this tournament coming off a penalty kick as the result of Vertonghen's silly decision to grab his opponent by the arm in the box. Center back Vincent Kompany was able to play through a groin injury in the last match, and is virtually 100 percent healthy for Thursday. As the leader of his team's great counter-attack, Kompany will play a big role in determining the fate of Group H.
Algeria vs. Russia
Sportsbook.ag. Line
Russia +120, Algeria +220 Tie +237
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +130, Under -158)
Algeria and Russia both wrap up Group H play on Thursday in a match where the winner has a great chance to advance to the knockout round.
After losing a late lead in a 2-1 defeat to Belgium in its World Cup opener, Algeria stormed back for a 4-2 victory over South Korea to pick up a crucial three points. Russia was able to earn only a 1-1 draw with South Korea to begin the tournament, and a subsequent 1-0 loss to Belgium has Russia needing a victory to have any chance to advance to the Round of 16 for the first time ever. Algeria knows that a win plus a Belgium loss to South Korea will put them in first place in Group H, but a tie on Thursday should also send them through for the first time ever, unless the unlikely scenario occurs where South Korea beats a favored Belgium squad by at least three goals. The only injury concern for either team is whether or not Russia defenseman Aleksandr Kozlov can play after suffering an injury versus Belgium.
Algeria failed to score a goal in the entire 2010 World Cup, but coach Vahid Halilhodzic's club already has five tallies in its first two matches in this tournament. The team's penalty-kick goal by midfielder Sofiane Feghouli was its only shot on goal versus Belgium in a match where they attempted just three total shots, but was much more aggressive against South Korea with 15 shots on goal, eight shots on net, and four shots in net by four different players (forward Islam Slimani, defenseman Rafik Halliche and midfielders Abdelmoumene Djabou and Yacine Brahimi). And after being dominated in possession by Belgium (65% to 35%), Algeria held the ball 46% of the time versus South Korea. Although Algeria has been very physical in this tournament with 34 fouls, they have picked up only two yellow cards with midfielder Nabil Bentaleb in the opener and defender Madjid Bougherra in the most recent match.
With Russia needing a victory for a chance at advancement, expect Fabio Capello's squad to be much more aggressive in this match. But it's all about finishing for this team that has attempted a solid 29 total shots, with 16 of those on goal, so far in the tournament. But only Alexander Kerzhakov was able to find the back of the net for Russia in the World Cup when he was inside the goalie box after a failed clearing attempt by South Korea hit Russia's Andrey Eshchenko in the chest and landed right on Kerzhakov's foot for an easy goal. Russia's defense has played pretty well too with only two goals allowed. One of those tallies came at the 88-minute mark by Belgium, while the other occurred in the opening match when Russia goalie Igor Akinfeev let a seemingly harmless South Korea shot go right through his hands. Russia has lost time of possession in both of its matches, but only by small margins (52% to 48% and 53% to 47%). Russia has also been disciplined enough to not get whistled for any offsides, and have committed only 24 fouls so far, incluidng a pair of yellow cards to midfielders Oleg Shatov and Denis Glushakov.
USA vs. Germany Betting Preview and Pick
By: William Duncan
Goal.com
There is sure to be plenty of intrigue in Group G on Thursday when Jurgen Klinsmann's United States side face Joachim Low's Germany in Recife (12 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Germany are all but assured of a place in the last 16 of the competition, but USA's hopes of making the knockout phase have been left in the balance following Silvestre Varela's last-gasp goal for Portugal against Klinsmann's men on Sunday night.
A draw would be enough to ensure that both nations reach the next stage and, with countrymen Low and Klinsmann enjoying an excellent relationship – Low was Klinsmann's assistant for Die Mannschaft at World Cup 2006 – there has been no shortage of conspiracy theories ahead of Thursday's tussle.
Indeed, the fact that the draw is chalked up at just +205 odds with the LVH SupeBook ahead of the match in Recife, suggests the bookmakers are expecting plenty of interest from bettors in such an outcome here.
Germany, though, were impressive in their opening match of World Cup 2014 – a 4-0 demolition of Portugal – and, while they were held to a 2-2 draw against Ghana on Saturday, there is no doubt that a German win looks to be a solid selection at -160 at the SuperBook.
The Americans came within 30 seconds of securing their place in the last 16 before conceding a stoppage time goal in Sunday's 2-2 draw with Portugal, and Team USA can be backed at a chunky 8-to-1 to claim all three points against the Germans.
Low certainly has plenty of firepower at his disposal for Thursday's game. Thomas Muller is likely to be fit while Miroslav Klose is gunning to become the tournament's all-time top scorer after his strike against Ghana at the weekend saw him draw level with Brazil legend Ronaldo at the top of the charts.
Outside of Las Vegas, Muller is chalked up at an appealing 4-to-1 to score the first goal in Recife, while Klose is good value at 13-to-10 to find the net at any time against Klinsmann’s men.
The props board at William Hill U.S. has Muller listed at +140 odds to score at any time during the match, with the ‘no’ side of the prop offered at -170. All of the props posted at William Hill U.S. can be seen in the document below.
It is worth noting, too, that Germany have notched an astonishing 42 goals in their last 12 competitive fixtures and, subsequently, the 11-to-5 odds outside of Nevada for Low's men to net three or more goals here looks to be too big to ignore.
The total on the teams’ combined output is 2.5 goals in Vegas, with OVER priced in the -130 range.
Bet of the day: Germany to score over 2.5 goals at 11-to-5.
Portugal vs. Ghana Betting Preview and Pick
By: Phil Kitromilides
Goal.com
Portugal's dreams of making it through to the knockout stages are slender but still intact after their dramatic last-gasp equalizer against United States in their second group game.
For Paolo Bento's men to progress to the last 16, the most likely scenario is for them to beat Ghana by a healthy margin and hope that Germany inflicts a convincing defeat upon the Americans.
It is difficult but not impossible and the LVH SuperBook prices the Portuguese at +120 for the win.
Ghana, meanwhile, are the outsiders at +210 with the draw that would see both sides eliminated offered at +265.
So far we have seen little from the Portuguese to inspire much confidence, while Ghana earned many plaudits in playing out a 2-2 draw with Germany, a game which was widely regarded as one of the best of the tournament.
The natural tendency is to lean towards goals in this encounter, with over 3 goals offered at -105 and both teams to scored available at 4-to-9 outside of Vegas.
Of more interest, however, are the 11-to-8 odds -- also being offered outside of Vegas -- for at least four goals to be scored and, in this most thrilling of World Cups, goals have not been in short supply.
Indeed, of the four matches contested so far by these two teams in the tournament, three have seen over 3.5 goals.
Both sides have to go for the win yet both have hitherto been guilty of some poor defending.
While both teams to score is the most likely bet to pay out, the price is just too small for all but the most seasoned of bettors so, for some higher odds, backing another high-scoring Group G match seems like a solid option.
Belgium vs. South Korea Betting Preview and Pick
By: Hugh Wilson
Goal.com
Belgium and South Korea meet in their final group match, with Hong Myung-bo's side knowing only a win will give them a chance of progressing in the World Cup. With Belgium topping the group on six points, Algeria follow behind them with three points, with Russia level with South Korea at one point.
Despite a poor tournament so far, if Russia beat Algeria and Myung-bo's men win convincingly against Belgium, they could still nick the second qualifying spot.
After drawing 1-1 with Russia in their opening match, a poor first half against Algeria saw them concede three unanswered goals, which put the game beyond the Asian side, eventually losing 4-2, and the LVH SuperBook has them priced at +425 to win tonight.
After being labelled as dark horses of the competition by some within the media, Belgium have yet to come out of their shell, despite two victories.
It has taken two late goals to secure maximum points in both matches, but Marc Wilmots' men only need a point to top Group H and progress. The Rode Duivels' are currently on a five-game winning run and will come into this game with confidence, so it's no surprise to see them priced at odds of -150 at the LVH win. The same book prices the draw at +280.
With Belgium likely to play a weaker team in this match, it's tough to back them to win outright.
A common trend in Wilmots' sides matches in recent months has been late goals. Sports books outside of Las Vegas offer odds of 5-to-6 (-120) that there is a goal scored after the 74:59 minute mark.
As well as two late goals to win both their group matches so far this World Cup, this bet also landed in Belgium's five previous games. It's also worth noting that in South Korea's qualifying campaign, they scored just under 30 percent of their goals in the 75-90 minute bracket.
Bet of the day: A goal to be scored after 74:59 at 5-to-6 (-120).
Russia vs. Algeria Betting Preview and Pick
By: Al Hain-Cole
Goal.com
Russia and Algeria go head to head in Curitiba on Thursday (4 p.m. ET, ESPN2) in what looks likely to represent a straight shootout for a place in the last 16.
Despite failing to win in Brazil so far, Fabio Capello's men are even-money favorites at the LVH SuperBook to collect three points that would move them above their opponents and into the knockout stages, barring a shock South Korean victory over leaders Belgium in the other Group H clash.
However, having recorded a first World Cup win in over 30 years in resounding 4-2 fashion against South Korea last time out, Les Fennecs are available at odds of +265 to come out on top and progress past the group stages for the first time in their history.
A draw would also probably be enough for the North Africans, considering their strong goal difference, and you can get odds of +260 on them holding out for a crucial point here.
Capello will not have fond memories of facing these opponents in the World Cup, having overseen a drab 0-0 draw while in charge of England in South Africa four years ago.
The veteran manager will be desperate to avoid the same fate on Thursday and is adamant that his team will go all out for their first win of the tournament.
This must-win attitude should see the Sbornaya play with a freedom that has so far been lacking in the tournament, with Aleksandr Kerzhakov and Alan Dzagoev both staking claims for inclusion in a more attacking line-up.
However, this necessity to push forward is likely to also leave gaps at the back for Vahid Halihodzic's men to sweep into, just as they did to great effect against the Koreans.
Considering that Russia have already given away sloppy goals in their previous two fixtures, odds outside of Las Vegas of 8-to-11 seem reasonable on both teams finding the net for Algeria's third consecutive group game.
Nevertheless, a lack of real cutting edge could well cost Capello's side, with odds of 11-to-2 well worth backing on 1-1 draw in an exact-score prop posted outside of Nevada.
Bet of the day: Both teams to score at 8-to-11
USA, Germany look to advance on Thursday
By: Brian Graham
StatFox.com
After letting a chance to win Group G slip away with a goal allowed in the 95th minute, the United States and Germany are still in the driver's seat to advance to the next round when the two clubs meet on Thursday.
The Americans nearly had their second straight 2-1 victory to open the tournament, but a horrendous giveaway in midfield by Michael Bradley allowed Portugal to score the equalizer on the last kick of the game. Germany also had a chance to clinch the group, but had to settle for a 2-2 draw with heavy underdog Ghana. Both teams will advance on Thursday with a tie, and Germany (+4 goal differential) will likely get through to the Round of 16 even with a loss to the Americans. The United States could also lose and get through with a Ghana/Portugal tie or a Portugal win by less than three goals. But if the U.S. loses and Ghana wins by at least two goals, the Americans would be sent home. The United States will still be missing starting striker Jozy Altidore, who is likely finished for the 2014 World Cup because of a left hamstring injury. The head coach of the Americans knows this German side very well, as Jurgen Klinsmann has both played and coached Germany in past World Cups.
The Americans have been led by forward Clint Dempsey, who scored a goal in the first 30 seconds of the tournament opener, broke his nose later that game, and also scored at the 81st minute against Portugal with what looked to be the game-winner at the time. John Brooks Jr. and Jermaine Jones have the club's other two goals in the World Cup. USA has been outshot badly in this tournament by a combined total of 41-23, but are an even 17-17 in terms of shots on goal with nine corner kicks compared to 11 for their opponents. The Americans have also lost the time of possession in both matches, holding the ball for only 40% of the time versus Ghana and 48% of the time versus Portugal. But the United States has been whistled for only 23 fouls and two offsides in the World Cup and their only booked player was Jones picking up a yellow card versus Portugal. It will be interesting to see how star midfielder Michael Bradley bounces back from a match in which he failed to score a point-blank opportunity with the goalie out of net (his shot was blocked by a Portugal defender) and turned the ball over in the final minute to allow Portugal to force a tie. But the U.S. has to be confident in the play of goalie Tim Howard, who has made some brilliant saves this tournament, especially versus Portugal.
Germany has scored six times in the World Cup with Thomas Muller netting half of those goals against Portugal. Muller, who also has an assist during the tournament, has eight goals in eight career World Cup matches. Mats Hummels, Mario Gotze and Miroslav Klose have the other tallies for the Germans, with Klose's tally marking his 15th career World Cup goal, which ties Ronaldo for the all-time record. Germany possessed the ball for 54% of the time versus Portugal and 59% of the time versus Ghana, and hold an 11-9 edge in corner kicks on their opponents. But Germany has been outshot by a hefty 34-24 margin in total shots for the tournament (19-15 in shots on goal). With the Germans needing only a tie to win this group, expect them to employ a more defensive game plan on Thursday.
Portugal, Ghana both playing to win Thursday
By: Brian Graham
StatFox.com
Group G play of the 2014 World Cup wraps up on Thursday afternoon with Portugal and Ghana both needing a win and some help to push through to the Round of 16.
Portugal is quite a longshot to advance due to their minus-4 goal differential, but if they can beat Ghana 3-0 and have Germany beat the United States by a 2-0 margin, they will advance to the knockout stage. Ghana would only need to win 2-0 over Portugal plus a 1-0 Germany victory over the U.S. to reach the Round of 16. Both of these clubs are coming off somewhat surprising draws, as Portugal needed a goal in the 95th minute versus the United States to keep its chances intact of advancing, while Ghana played heavily-favored Germany to a 2-2 draw in its last match. Ghana's Michael Essien is unlikely to start again due to his lingering toe injury, but Portugal should see an improvement on their back line with the return of Pepe who missed the last game after his silly head-butt to Germany's Thomas Muller.
Portugal, referred to as Seleccao, saw star Cristiano Ronaldo play a horrible match versus the US due largely to a lingering knee injury, but he still found a way to serve a perfect cross to the head of Silvestre Varela in the final minute of stoppage time to help his team earn a draw and keep small hopes alive for moving on in this tournament. Nani opened the scoring in that epic draw with an easy goal five minutes in off a horrible clear by the American defender. Although Portugal carries a minus-4 goal differential due to getting waxed 4-0 by Germany in the World Cup Opener, the team has outshot both of its opponents, holding a 20-15 total shots advantage over the U.S. after outshooting Germany 14-13. But of Seleccao's 34 shots in the World Cup, only 18 have been on net. Portugal has also been pretty even in ball possession, holding a slim 52% to 48% advantage over the Americans after allowing the Germans to have a 54% possession.
Ghana, known as The Black Stars, really put the pressure on the Germans in their last match with 20 total shots, including 10 on goal. Germany attempted only 11 shots with six on goal. That gives Ghana 41 total shots (18 on goal) for the tournament while limiting their opponents to a paltry 19 total shots (13 on goal). Ghana's 4-3-3 formation and excellent goaltending by Fatau Dauda could cause trouble for Portugal's erratic attack. The Black Stars did lose possession time to Germany by a substantial 59% to 41% margin, which was just the opposite of their first game when they held the ball 60% of the time versus the Americans. But Ghana has played extremely rough in this tournament with 27 fouls and three yellow cards. Two of those cards went to midfielder Sulley Muntari's whose booking in the 94th minute of the battle of Germany will earn him a one-game suspension. Midfielder Mohammed Rabiu also has to be careful not to pick up another yellow card like he did in that first match. Ghana's lone goal of their first match came at the 82nd minute from Andre Ayew, assisted by Asamoah Gyan on a sweet back-heel pass. This duo was at it again versus Germany with one goal each -- Ayew tallying at the 54th minute, and Gyan scoring nine minutes later.
Belgium tries to clinch Group H Thursday vs. South Korea
By: Brian Graham
StatFox.com
Group H play concludes on Thursday with heavily-favored Belgium needing only a draw with desperate South Korea to win the group.
South Korea was pummeled 4-2 versus Algeria in their most recent game, but still have a mathematical chance at advancement due to a 1-1 tie earned in the tournament opener. But the Taeguk Warriors need to beat the Red Devils by at least three goals and hope that Russia beats Algeria in a game played simultaneously with this one. Belgium, which won both of its matches so far (2-1 versus Algeria and 1-0 over Russia), needs only a draw to assure themselves of being the group champion, and a they could still take Group H with a loss combined with an Algeria defeat or draw.
South Korea held the possession advantage against both Russia (52% to 48%) and Algeria (54% to 46%), but has been outshot 31-19 in the World Cup, including 18-12 in shots on goal. They didn't attempt a single shot during the first half of their loss to Algeria. The Taeguk Warriors have been very disciplined this tournament with only one offsides call and just 20 fouls committed, compared to 31 fouls for their opponents. However, South Korea has amassed five yellow cards already with defenseman Lee Yong and midfielder Han Kookyoung picking up cards versus Algeria to join forward Son Heung-min and midfielders Ki Sung-yueng and Koo Ja-Cheol all getting booked in the World Cup opener. Hueng-min and Ja-Cheol were the goal scorers versus Algeria and will try to spend most of their time in the Belgium half of the field for a Taeguk Warriors team desperate to tally at least three goals on Thursday.
Belgium has a pedestrian three goals in two World Cup matches -- all from substitute players (midfielders Marouane Fellaini, Dries Mertens and forward Divock Origi), but they have created several great chances with 27 total shots, and 17 of those winding up on net. The Red Devils have also held a possession advantage in each game, with 65% possession versus Algeria and 53% against Russia. But they have also been extremely dangerous with their challenges with 34 fouls and three yellow cards issued to midfielder Axel Witsel and defensemen Toby Alderweireld and Jan Vertonghen. But Belgium's defense remains top-notch, with the only goal allowed this tournament coming off a penalty kick as the result of Vertonghen's silly decision to grab his opponent by the arm in the box. Center back Vincent Kompany was able to play through a groin injury in the last match, and is virtually 100 percent healthy for Thursday. As the leader of his team's great counter-attack, Kompany will play a big role in determining the fate of Group H.
Algeria, Russia seek first-ever Round of 16 berth Thursday
By: Brian Graham
StatFox.com
Algeria and Russia both wrap up Group H play on Thursday in a match where the winner has a great chance to advance to the knockout round.
After losing a late lead in a 2-1 defeat to Belgium in its World Cup opener, Algeria stormed back for a 4-2 victory over South Korea to pick up a crucial three points. Russia was able to earn only a 1-1 draw with South Korea to begin the tournament, and a subsequent 1-0 loss to Belgium has Russia needing a victory to have any chance to advance to the Round of 16 for the first time ever. Algeria knows that a win plus a Belgium loss to South Korea will put them in first place in Group H, but a tie on Thursday should also send them through for the first time ever, unless the unlikely scenario occurs where South Korea beats a favored Belgium squad by at least three goals. The only injury concern for either team is whether or not Russia defenseman Aleksandr Kozlov can play after suffering an injury versus Belgium.
Algeria failed to score a goal in the entire 2010 World Cup, but coach Vahid Halilhodzic's club already has five tallies in its first two matches in this tournament. The team's penalty-kick goal by midfielder Sofiane Feghouli was its only shot on goal versus Belgium in a match where they attempted just three total shots, but was much more aggressive against South Korea with 15 shots on goal, eight shots on net, and four shots in net by four different players (forward Islam Slimani, defenseman Rafik Halliche and midfielders Abdelmoumene Djabou and Yacine Brahimi). And after being dominated in possession by Belgium (65% to 35%), Algeria held the ball 46% of the time versus South Korea. Although Algeria has been very physical in this tournament with 34 fouls, they have picked up only two yellow cards with midfielder Nabil Bentaleb in the opener and defender Madjid Bougherra in the most recent match.
With Russia needing a victory for a chance at advancement, expect Fabio Capello's squad to be much more aggressive in this match. But it's all about finishing for this team that has attempted a solid 29 total shots, with 16 of those on goal, so far in the tournament. But only Alexander Kerzhakov was able to find the back of the net for Russia in the World Cup when he was inside the goalie box after a failed clearing attempt by South Korea hit Russia's Andrey Eshchenko in the chest and landed right on Kerzhakov's foot for an easy goal. Russia's defense has played pretty well too with only two goals allowed. One of those tallies came at the 88-minute mark by Belgium, while the other occurred in the opening match when Russia goalie Igor Akinfeev let a seemingly harmless South Korea shot go right through his hands. Russia has lost time of possession in both of its matches, but only by small margins (52% to 48% and 53% to 47%). Russia has also been disciplined enough to not get whistled for any offsides, and have committed only 24 fouls so far, incluidng a pair of yellow cards to midfielders Oleg Shatov and Denis Glushakov.