Tuesday's World Cup Tips
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Argentina vs. Switzerland
The last semi-finalist at Brazil 2014 will be made up from one of Argentina, Switzerland, Belgium and USA. Argentina are the strong favourites to make it to the semis, but they will face strong competition.
The first game of the day sees Argentina face Switzerland at the Arena Corinthians in São Paulo. Argentina have been dealt such a kind draw. First they were put in an easy group - they won all three games without ever really convincing. Second they were placed into comfortably the easier half of the draw, and third - their games are all played at moderate temperatures, away from the energy sapping heat of the northern venues.
Switzerland edged past Ecuador first up, before being hammered 5-2 by France, having been 5-0 down at one point. Needing to beat Honduras, Ottmar Hitzfeld’s teams duly obliged with a 3-0 win. Xherdan Shaqiri, Switzerland’s star man, grabbed a hat-trick. A winger, he is a powerfully built player with a vicious shot, but he moves around gracefully and is very underused at Bayern Munich. He will trouble Argentina’s suspect defence.
Argentina are the 1/2 favourites to win the match in normal time with sportsbook.ag. Switzerland are 57/10 shots, with a draw 33/10. The best value here would probably be a draw, just given that three of the six last 16 games so far have gone to extra time, with a fourth (Netherlands v Mexico) coming within about two minutes of a draw. Jose Pekerman’s team are 5/21 to qualify, with Switzerland 33/10.
The team that wins the World Cup is often the one that peaks at the right time, and there is lots to suggest Argentina will do this. They will still be full of energy after a favourable draw, and there was an openness in the Swiss defence in the 5-2 loss to France that will have Messi, Higuain, Lavezzi and Di Maria licking their lips in excitement. I just have a feeling Argentina will really pull their finger out now that the tournament has got serious.
In the first goalscorer market, PSG inside-forward Ezequiel Lavezzi looks a fair shout at 5/1. He replaces the injured Sergio Aguero, and he had enough chances after coming on in the 3-2 win over Nigeria to suggest that he could well be on the scoresheet today. He is a relentlessly hard worker and, despite often playing wide for PSG, the natural fluidity of Argentina’s front three means he will often find himself in goalscoring positions.
Top Bet: Ezequiel Lavezzi to score first at 5/1
Belgium vs. United States
The second game of the day is fascinating. It pits a Belgium side that won 3 out of 3 in the group without ever playing that well, against the USA, who qualified as rank outsiders from a tough-looking Group G.
The interesting thing about this match is that, while Belgium are strong favourites to qualify for the quarter-finals at 20/37, with USA 8/5, Belgium are not blessed with more big game experience than Klinsmann’s men, as is often the case with favourites. Belgium were drawn into an easy group, and their attack has looked poor throughout. Romelu Lukaku has been dreadful up front, while talented midfielders like Axel Witsel and Eden Hazard have failed to make a mark so far.
The USA have been great so far: they put in a thrillingly dogged performance to beat Ghana in that crucial opening match, before being very unlucky to draw 2-2 with Portugal in a game where they dominated long periods. There is a real mental strength to this team, and I think that could be the difference.
Certainly Belgium look too short to back at 1/1, with USA at 13/5. It may be best, however, to bear in mind the high number of draws in the knockout stage so far, along with both sides’ good defences, to back USA to qualify, without having to rely on them doing so in 90 minutes at 8/5.
I would not expect many goals. USA do not have the wingers to exploit Belgium’s alarming lack of full-backs, and both sides will inevitably be nervous. The conditions in Salvador, though tempered somewhat by the darkness, will be hot and sticky. Belgium are not a very fluid side, and 10/13 on One or Both Teams Not to Score looks the best shout.
USA showed how good they can be at the back in limiting Germany to only one in the last group game, while Belgium’s centre-back pairing of Vincent Kompany and Daniel van Buyten has looked steady so far. Van Buyten’s pace can catch him out, but the US don’t have great pace in attack, so he shouldn't be too exposed.
Top Bet: One or Both Teams Not to Score at 10/13
World Cup Game of the Day: Belgium vs. USA
By Covers.com
Belgium vs. USA (+100, +320, Draw +250)
Two teams unfamiliar with each other face off Tuesday at Arena Fonte Nova in Salvador when Group H winner Belgium faces off against the plucky Americans. The U.S. survived the Group of Death despite a narrow loss to Germany in its final Group G match, and faces a Belgian side that allowed just one goal against in its three matches but is dealing with injury woes. The teams haven't met in World Cup play since 1930, when the U.S. prevailed 3-0.
Belgium has been a model of consistency so far in the tournament, registering three straight one-goal victories behind strong fundamental play and a conservative but effective offense. And while pundits have labeled the style of play as unexciting, Belgian coach Marc Wilmots is fine with that. "What counts - always - is to win and advance," he said. "Every error is paid cash at the tiller. So what does 'the most beautiful football' mean? You tell me."
WORLD RANKINGS: Belgium: No. 11; USA: No. 13.
INJURY REPORT: Belgium: MF Steven Defour will miss the match after being suspended for a red card against South Korea; D Anthony Vanden Borre is out after suffering a broken ankle against South Korea; D Vincent Kompany is nursing a groin injury and is considered doubtful; D Thomas Vermaelen is doubtful with a hamstring injury . USA: F Jozy Altidore is recovering from a hamstring injury suffered in the opener but is training on his own and may appear in Tuesdays game.
WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "Belgium won all three group games, however these were against some of the weakest teams in the tournament and the Belgian Golden Generation has failed to impress thus far. Do we give the USA a chance in this game? Of course we do. USA are one of the hardest working teams in this tournament." Covers Expert Footy Tipster
WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "By far our biggest bet game of the tournament so far. Having the USA make it in to the knockout stage is a big win for us in terms of volume. With the action so far, our customers are backing Team USA with 80 percent of the action. As for the 2.5 goal total, it is seeing good two way action with just 69 percent of the action on the over." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.
ABOUT BELGIUM: As well as the Belgians played defensively in their three group victories, they'll be hard-pressed to match that with three key defenders hobbled. The loss of Kompany - who looked sensational in the two games for which he was healthy - would be a major blow, but Wilmots doesn't sound optimistic that his team captain will take the field against the Americans. "We will have to assess it (Monday), how he moves," Wilmots told a throng of reporters. "I cannot play him if he is 80 percent only."
ABOUT USA: The key to the Americans' success or failure in their round-of-16 match may very well be their ability to deal with Belgium's precise crosses. Both Portugal goals in its stunning 2-2 tie with the U.S. came via well-placed crosses that the American side couldn't defend, and that could cause problems given that Belgium (60 percent) has won a larger percentage of its aerial battles than the U.S. (50 percent). The return of Altidore, who missed the previous two games, would give the Americans a significant boost up front.
TRENDS:
* Belgium has beaten the U.S. in each of their four meetings since their World Cup match, shutting out the Americans three times.
* The Americans had the second-worst possession rate (39 percent) of any team in the group stage.
* Belgium's last six World Cup goals have come in the final 20 minutes of play.
* The U.S has allowed at least one goal in 16 consecutive matches against European opponents.
Argentina vs. Switzerland Betting Preview and Pick
By: Phil Kitromilides
Goal.com
It was three wins from three in the group stages for Argentina without ever really managing to be overly convincing.
Alejandro Sabella's side struggled to varying degrees against Bosnia, Iran and Nigeria but ultimately ended up victorious and a similar pattern may well take shape in Sao Paolo on Tuesday against Switzerland (12 p.m. ET, ESPN).
The Swiss for their part have played some decent stuff and have looked pretty sharp in front of goal, yet naturally will know they are massive underdogs against one of the favorites for the tournament.
The LVH SuperBook offers a victory for Switzerland at +650 while Argentina can be backed at -215 and the draw is available +325.
On the face of it the LVH's odds of -115 for both teams to score looks a little generous especially when considering what has gone before in this competition and the form that both sides are in.
Argentina have looked defensively unstable, conceding one goal to Bosnia, two to Nigeria, and a couple of extremely good chances to Iran which they were unable to take.
Up front there is little doubt that we expect the Albiceleste to score in every match they play but at the back they often look vulnerable and Switzerland can exploit this.
Ottmar Hitzfeld's side have scored in all three of their matches so far, notching seven goals in total and going forward they have genuine quality, more than enough to get on the score sheet at least once and land bettors a nice winner at -115 with the LVH.
USA vs. Belgium Betting Preview and Pick
By: William Duncan
Goal.com
The final place in the quarterfinals of World Cup is up for grabs on Tuesday when Belgium go head-to-head with USA in Salvador (4 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Marc Wilmots’ men came into the tournament as one of the dark horses to lift the trophy and, despite failing to hit top form in the group stages, Belgium cantered to the top of Group H with narrow victories over Algeria, Russia and South Korea.
For Team USA, they will be delighted just to reach the knockout stages after edging out Portugal and Ghana to the second qualification spot in Group G – but Jurgen Klinsmann’s men will be determined not to see their World Cup adventure halted in Salvador on Tuesday.
Belgium are chalked up as -190 favorites with William Hill U.S. to book their place in the last eight of the competition, while Wilmots’ men can be backed at even money with the LVH SuperBook to win inside 90 minutes against Klinsmann’s side.
USA are available at +170 with William Hill U.S. to qualify for the next round, with the LVH offering a chunky +290 that USA are victorious inside 90 minutes. The LVH hangs +240 that the game is level at the end of normal time on Tuesday.
The goal spread at multiple Vegas bet shops has Belgium laying a half-goal (even money), with the U.S. offered at -120 with the half-goal cushion.
Belgium have been solid, if unspectacular, throughout the tournament thus far, scoring just four goals and conceding only once and, therefore, it comes as little surprise that CG Technology posts the total at 2.5 goals, with the UNDER the -140 favorite.
However, despite a disappointing 1-0 defeat at the hands of Germany in their last outing, Klinsmann’s men have proven already in the competition that they carry a potent goal threat, netting twice against both Ghana and Portugal in the group stages.
Team USA should not be underestimated here and they can be backed to push Belgium all the way in Salvador.
The +190 odds for Klinsmann’s men to reach the last eight carries plenty of appeal but it is the juicy +110 odds from William Hill U.S. for both teams to find the net that is the recommended play for bettors ahead of Tuesday’s tussle (all of the props posted at William Hill U.S. can be found in the document below).
Best bet: Both teams to score at +110