Brazil vs. Germany Betting Preview and Pick
By: Phil Kitromilides
Goal.com
It is a curious thing to have reached a World Cup semifinal (4 p.m. ET, ESPN) having yet to put in a convincing performance, yet that is just the accusation that could be leveled at Brazil.
Apart from their group stage win over Cameroon - in which they still conceded an equalizer - the hosts have not looked overly comfortable in any game, and they were desperately holding on by the end of their quarterfinal clash with Colombia.
The Germans, meanwhile, have perhaps been more in control of their games, never really looking in trouble against France in the previous round, although they were given a scare by Algeria in the last 16.
It is perhaps because of these performances that for the first time this tournament we find Brazil as fractional outsiders for a match priced at +180 at the LVH SuperBook while Germany are offered at +170. The draw is available at +215.
The loss of their two best players Neymar (injured) and Thiago Silva (suspended) will also have impacted on Brazil's price and if we have hitherto seen little to inspire confidence in backing Felipe Scolari's side, they are now even more unappealing with those high profile absentees.
Germany for their part look more functional than flamboyant despite playing some attractive football and Joachim Low's men are not a side that have looked overly threatening in front of goal.
Indeed perhaps a lack of a killer instinct in front of goal is the one major criticism of the side, and so bearing in mind the injury problems Brazil have, a low-scoring game could be on the cards.
UNDER 2.5 goals is offered at -175 at the LVH but more attractive is the price of 5-to-4 offered outside of Vegas for UNDER 0.5 goals in the first half.
Brazil have scored five goals in the first halves of matches at the World Cup but four of them have been scored by either Neymar or Thiago Silva. Meanwhile this selection has paid out in three of Germany's last four matches, making it a solid option at a decent price.
Germany, Brazil square off in Tuesday's semifinals
By: Brian Graham
StatFox.com
Only four teams remain in the 2014 World Cup, with the first semifinal on Tuesday pitting soccer giants Brazil and Germany.
Host Brazil will be playing this match short-handed, with star forward Neymar suffering a fractured vertebra in the quarterfinal win, while team captain Thiago Silva is suspended due to picking up his second yellow card in a 2-1 victory versus Colombia that put the Selecao into the semifinal round for the first time since 2002. Germany reached its fourth straight semifinal, and 10th such appearance in the past 13 World Cups, by knocking off France 1-0. This was the third straight one-goal victory for the Germans. Brazil holds a 5-2-2 advantage in the past nine meetings between these countries, which include the Selecao's 2-0 victory over the Germans in the 2002 World Cup. However, Germany topped Brazil 3-2 when they last met in a friendly in August 2011. Although Brazil will be missing two key starters on Tuesday, they are undefeated in 41 straight matches on home soil, and manager Luiz Felipe Scolari has never lost a World Cup match while leading the Selecao.
Brazil is coming off another harder-than-expected win, as a Thiago Silva's goal seven minutes in and David Luiz's top-corner rocket off a free kick held up in a 2-1 victory. During that match, 54 fouls were committed, including a tournament-high 31 fouls by Brazil. Silva and goalkeeper Julio Cesar were both given yellow cards, with Cesar quite fortunate he didn't pick up a red card when he took out Colombian star James Rodriguez in the box that resulted in a penalty kick goal. Against Colombia, the Selecao held only a slight edge in total shots (12-11), shots on goal (6-5) and possession (51% to 49%). Brazil nearly fell to Chile to open the knockout round in a match where they committed 28 fouls and were booked for four yellow cards, but prevailed in penalty kicks when Chile's final attempt hit the post. Although the Selecao held a commanding 23-13 shot advantage (13-5 shots on goal) in that match, Chile out-possessed Brazil 51% to 49%. The Selecao will certainly miss injured Neymar, who is tied for second among all goal scorers in the World Cup with four of his team's 10 tallies. David Luiz has two goals, but no other teammate has more than one tally in the tournament, with these other four goals coming from Oscar, Fred, Fernando Luiz Roza and Thiago Silva.
Germany started off its World Cup with 4-0 victory against Portugal, but have not really played up to their capabilities since that lopsided result. After a 2-2 draw with heavy underdog Ghana, they barely topped the United States by a 1-0 result, and failed to score in regulation during a 2-1 win over Algeria in the Round of 16. A Mats Hummels header off a Toni Kroos free kick at the 12-minute mark was the club's loan goal in its 1-0 quarterfinal victory over Les Blues. That was the second goal for Hummels in the tournament, putting him second on the club behind Thomas Muller, who has four of the 10 Germany goals in this tournament. He now has nine goals in 10 career World Cup matches. Andre Schurrle, Mesut Ozil, Mario Gotze and Miroslav Klose have the other tallies for the Germans, with Klose's tally marking his 15th career World Cup goal, which ties Brazil legend Ronaldo for the all-time record. In the quarterfinal win over France, possession was split equally at 50% apiece, which marks the fifth straight match that the Germans have not lost possession. They held possession advantages of 59% versus Portugal, 54% facing Ghana and a whopping 63% possession time versus both USA and Algeria. For the tournament, they hold a 27-20 edge in corner kicks on their opponents, and in the past three contests, Germany has fired 50 total shots, with 37 going on goal (74%). The players tasked with feeding the goal-scoring stars are midfielders Kroos and Lukas Podolski, who has 47 goals in his 116 caps, but did not play in the quarterfinals. Germany has allowed a mere three goals over five matches in this tournament thanks to the stellar play of goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, who is the much more highly-regarded keeper in this match. The Germans have also completed 500 more successful passes than any other World Cup team and over 1,000 more than Brazil, and will need to control possession in this match to beat a more physical Selecao club.
Brazil vs. Germany: 2014 World Cup Semifinals Preview
ATSConsultants.com
We're down to the final four of the World Cup between two of the best teams in the world. Brazil goes into this one down their best player in Neymar but they hope playing in front of the home fans in Belo Horizonte can lift them to the finals. Germany has been efficient if not less than spectacular so far. Here is the Germany-Brazil preview for Tuesday, July 8.
World Cup Semifinals: Brazil vs. Germany, Saturday, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, 4pmET
These squads have met 21 times with Brazil having won 12, drawn five and lost just four. They met just once in World Cup play with Brazil defeating Germany in the 2002 final.
Brazil not only has to play without striker Neymar but also captain and top defender Thiago Silva, who picked up a cheap second yellow card in their win over Colombia. They do get midfielder Luiz Gustavo back from suspension after he sat out his last match.
The loss of Neymar puts more pressure on the outstanding Hulk and the invisible Fred. They could also use some production from offensive-minded Oscar, who has also been non-existent in the tournament. Dante and William are capable players that could struggle against the speedy German attack.
Neymar has been the most consistent player on a team that hasn't lost a match, but also hasn't been dominant. His pace and dribbling ability allows him to create space and scoring opportunities every time the ball is on his foot. Hulk has been scoreless thus far, despite creating numerous chances with his big left foot. William also picked up a hip injury over the weekend and if he isn't 100 percent, manager Luis Felipe Scolari cold turn to 5-foot-4 Bernard, who can play the wide role that Neymar plays.
As for Germany, they could use a big match from Thomas Mueller, who has not scored a goal in his last two games. He has three goals and is two behind Colombia's James Rodriguez for the Golden Boot award. They beat France 1-0 on a goal from defender Mats Hummels.
Germany's advantage is in goal where Manuel Neuer is like having another defender with his sweeper-like ability. At 6-foot-4, he has the reach to get to just about everything.
World Cup Semifinals Odds: Germany: +187; Brazil: +175. Draw: +226. Total: 2.0.
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Brazil vs. Germany
By Sportsbook.ag
Brazil vs. Germany
Kickoff: Tuesday, 4:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Estadio Mineirao
Location: Belo Horizonte, Brazil
Sportsbook.ag Line:
Germany +150, Brazil +185, Tie after Regulation +230
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +150, Under -169)
Only four teams remain in the 2014 World Cup, with the first semifinal on Tuesday pitting soccer giants Brazil and Germany.
Host Brazil will be playing this match short-handed, with star forward Neymar suffering a fractured vertebra in the quarterfinal win, while team captain Thiago Silva is suspended due to picking up his second yellow card in a 2-1 victory versus Colombia that put the Selecao into the semifinal round for the first time since 2002. Germany reached its fourth straight semifinal, and 10th such appearance in the past 13 World Cups, by knocking off France 1-0. This was the third straight one-goal victory for the Germans. Brazil holds a 5-2-2 advantage in the past nine meetings between these countries, which include the Selecao's 2-0 victory over the Germans in the 2002 World Cup. However, Germany topped Brazil 3-2 when they last met in a friendly in August 2011. Although Brazil will be missing two key starters on Tuesday, they are undefeated in 41 straight matches on home soil, and manager Luiz Felipe Scolari has never lost a World Cup match while leading the Selecao.
Brazil is coming off another harder-than-expected win, as a Thiago Silva's goal seven minutes in and David Luiz's top-corner rocket off a free kick held up in a 2-1 victory. During that match, 54 fouls were committed, including a tournament-high 31 fouls by Brazil. Silva and goalkeeper Julio Cesar were both given yellow cards, with Cesar quite fortunate he didn't pick up a red card when he took out Colombian star James Rodriguez in the box that resulted in a penalty kick goal. Against Colombia, the Selecao held only a slight edge in total shots (12-11), shots on goal (6-5) and possession (51% to 49%). Brazil nearly fell to Chile to open the knockout round in a match where they committed 28 fouls and were booked for four yellow cards, but prevailed in penalty kicks when Chile's final attempt hit the post. Although the Selecao held a commanding 23-13 shot advantage (13-5 shots on goal) in that match, Chile out-possessed Brazil 51% to 49%. The Selecao will certainly miss injured Neymar, who is tied for second among all goal scorers in the World Cup with four of his team's 10 tallies. David Luiz has two goals, but no other teammate has more than one tally in the tournament, with these other four goals coming from Oscar, Fred, Fernando Luiz Roza and Thiago Silva.
Germany started off its World Cup with 4-0 victory against Portugal, but have not really played up to their capabilities since that lopsided result. After a 2-2 draw with heavy underdog Ghana, they barely topped the United States by a 1-0 result, and failed to score in regulation during a 2-1 win over Algeria in the Round of 16. A Mats Hummels header off a Toni Kroos free kick at the 12-minute mark was the club's loan goal in its 1-0 quarterfinal victory over Les Blues. That was the second goal for Hummels in the tournament, putting him second on the club behind Thomas Muller, who has four of the 10 Germany goals in this tournament. He now has nine goals in 10 career World Cup matches. Andre Schurrle, Mesut Ozil, Mario Gotze and Miroslav Klose have the other tallies for the Germans, with Klose's tally marking his 15th career World Cup goal, which ties Brazil legend Ronaldo for the all-time record. In the quarterfinal win over France, possession was split equally at 50% apiece, which marks the fifth straight match that the Germans have not lost possession. They held possession advantages of 59% versus Portugal, 54% facing Ghana and a whopping 63% possession time versus both USA and Algeria. For the tournament, they hold a 27-20 edge in corner kicks on their opponents, and in the past three contests, Germany has fired 50 total shots, with 37 going on goal (74%). The players tasked with feeding the goal-scoring stars are midfielders Kroos and Lukas Podolski, who has 47 goals in his 116 caps, but did not play in the quarterfinals. Germany has allowed a mere three goals over five matches in this tournament thanks to the stellar play of goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, who is the much more highly-regarded keeper in this match. The Germans have also completed 500 more successful passes than any other World Cup team and over 1,000 more than Brazil, and will need to control possession in this match to beat a more physical Selecao club.
Brazil vs. Germany Propositions
First Goal Scorer
Thomas Muller 9/2
Miroslav Klose 11/2
Fred 11/2
Hulk 13/2
Andre Schurrle 13/2
Mario Gotze 13/2
Jo 13/2
Lukas Podolski 15/2
Oscar 8/1
Mesut Ozil 17/2
Hernanes 9/1
Bernard 9/1
Paulinho 10/1
Toni Kroos 11/1
Bastian Schweinsteiger 11/1
Julian Draxler 11/1
Willian 12/1
Mats Hummels 14/1
Ramires 14/1
Fernandinho 14/1
Kevin Grosskreutz 16/1
David Luiz 16/1
Mathias Ginter 18/1
Sami Khedira 18/1
Christoph Kramer 18/1
Marcelo 20/1
Daniel Alves 22/1
Philipp Lahm 23/1
Erik Durm 25/1
Per Mertesacker 28/1
Dante 28/1
Maicon 28/1
Benedikt Howedes 28/1
Luiz Gustavo 28/1
Jerome Boateng 33/1
Henrique 33/1
Maxwell 36/1
To Score Anytime
Thomas Muller 6/5
Miroslav Klose 11/8
Jo 2/1
Mario Gotze 2/1
Hulk 2/1
Fred 2/1
Andre Schurrle 9/4
Oscar 9/4
Lukas Podolski 11/4
Hernanes 3/1
Mesut Ozil 13/4
Paulinho 7/2
Bernard 7/2
Bastian Schweinsteiger 7/2
Toni Kroos 4/1
Ramires 4/1
Kevin Grosskreutz 9/2
Fernandinho 9/2
Willian 9/2
Julian Draxler 19/4
Sami Khedira 5/1
David Luiz 5/1
Mats Hummels 11/2
Christoph Kramer 6/1
Marcelo 6/1
Erik Durm 7/1
Daniel Alves 7/1
Philipp Lahm 7/1
Mathias Ginter 7/1
Luiz Gustavo 8/1
Maicon 10/1
Per Mertesacker 10/1
Henrique 10/1
Dante 10/1
Benedikt Howedes 10/1
Jerome Boateng 12/1
Maxwell 12/1
Tuesday's World Cup Semi
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Brazil vs. Germany
The first semifinal of the 2014 World Cup sees the hosts, Brazil, face Germany at the Mineirão in Belo Horizonte. It’s a fascinating looking contest. If you were told that this would be a semi-final before the tournament, you would expect Brazil to be favourites to qualify at around 4/7. Instead, for a variety of reasons, Luis Felipe Scolari’s men find themselves 21/20 outsiders with Sportsbook.ag to get to the final. Germany, who defeated a listless France in the quarters, are 4/5.
The main reason for the shift in the market are Brazil’s injuries: Thiago Silva, the captain and the world’s best centre-back, is out with suspension. Replacing him will be Bayern Munich’s Dante, and able deputy. The captain’s armband will move to David Luiz, who should shine in that role. He seems to exhibit much more responsibility in the national shirt than at club level. He is a big-hearted player, and is a natural leader. Thiago Silva’s absence will not have a huge effect.
Not so the absence of Neymar. The Brazilian Golden Boy is out of the tournament after breaking a vertebra in his back. It is an injury that has shocked the country and the World Cup. He has been by far and away Brazil’s most dangerous attacking player, scoring four goals, and being at the centre of most good things Brazil have done going forward. They are not used to playing without him.
Who will replace him? Well, there are three options: first is a straight swap, in the form of either Willian or Bernard. This would keep Brazil in a 4-2-3-1 shape, with Oscar shifting inside. Second, there is the possibility of Ramires coming in as a more defensive option, as happened when the Chelsea man played instead of Hulk against Mexico. Third, there is the possibility of Fred missing out. He is mainly in the team because he combines well with Neymar. Apart from that, however, he offers little.
I think the bookmakers have got the prices wrong here. Here are my reasons why.
Brazil are at home. It seems obvious, but it’s easy to forget this in a World Cup. The importance of the home crowd has been immense for the Seleção in the two last 16 games, where they saw off hugely talented opponents in Colombia and Chile. Scolari is a master man-manager, and he is excellent at taking the pressure off the players, while also getting maximum effort out of them. This team is being carried on a tidal wave of national fervour, and the atmosphere inside the Mineirão will be incredible. The Brazilian players are not fazed by the pressure, and so far they have come through their big tests.
Is Germany really that good?
This is a team that went off as outsiders against France, who only really played well once, against Switzerland. Germany have also only really played well once. And that game, a 4-0 win over Portugal, was decided by a dodgy penalty and a stupid red card. They could only draw with Ghana, before a strange 1-0 win over a USA side who still qualified with a defeat. They needed extra time to beat Algeria, who were 2000/1 for the tournament. In the quarters, they didn’t have many chances, and were grateful that France’s momentum had been lost by taking their foot off the pedal in a 0-0 group stage draw with Ecuador.
People will say, ‘but it’s the Germans, they always find a way’. No they don’t. This is not the same Germany as we saw in the seventies and eighties; this team has a history of messing up big semifinals. They were nullified by Spain in 2010, they lost as favourites to Italy in 2006 and 2012. For a team with such consistency as Germany, it is regarded as an aberration there that they haven’t won a major tournament since 1996.
Their defence does not inspire huge confidence. They often play with two centre-backs, Benedikt Höwedes and Jerome Boateng, at full-back, while Per Mertesacker, for all his good qualities, is extremely slow at centre-back. Manager Joachim Löw
has a tendency to pick too many number 10s and to skimp on width, which was their problem in the first half against Algeria. Overall this team is just not as good as at Euro 2012.
So for me 21/20 on Brazil looks the bet. In the 90 minute market, they are 197/100 to win, with Germany 3/2. A draw is 11/5.
Let’s have a quick look at the top goalscorer market, where I’m quite partial to Hulk at 13/2. He had two excellent chances early on against Colombia and, with Neymar’s injury, the Zenit St. Petersburg man will get more responsibility. He may even play up front. David Luiz has scored twice already this tournament and is a threat from set-pieces - one of Brazil’s great strengths. However this seems to have been adequately factored into his quotes of 16/1.
For Germany, Thomas Müller is the favourite at 9/2. He has four goals so far this tournament, and will probably return to his centre-forward role in Belo Horizonte, after dropping back into attacking midfield as Miroslav Klose came in against France.
This is all set to be one of the great World Cup matches. There are so many different back-stories, so many different angles to look at the game that it will keep you rapt. The winner is 90 minutes from the trophy.
Top Bet: Brazil to qualify at 21/20
World Cup semifinal betting: Brazil vs. Germany
By Pinnacle Sports
The 2014 World Cup is now at the knockout stage, read this semifinals betting preview before placing your bets.
Brazil have not always been what they were predicted to be in this World Cup. Our pre-tournament favorites to win the Cup were unconvincing in winning their opener vs Croatia 3-1 and effectively drew two of their next three matches before finally showing the pace many expected in their first half vs. Colombia in the quarterfinals.
Germany are now the favorites in many eyes, but are not without flaws. After demolishing Portugal, they only managed a draw with Ghana that exposed some questionable German defense en route to winning Group G. After a tough win vs Algeria in R16, an early goal vs France in the quarterfinals was enough.
Two world soccer powers now find themselves 180 minutes from kissing the World Cup.
Neymar
Neymar’s injury is still the talk of the tournament. Prior to it, he’d been called everything from talisman to genius, but that all disappeared for Brazil when Juan Camilo Zuniga took the 22-year old phenom out of the World Cup. Our spread markets for Brazil-Germany opened with Brazil at -0.25 2.10, while Neymar’s status for the semi-final was still in question. Even with early bettors accounting for the possibility of his exclusion from the semi-finals, once the news that Neymar was out broke, the market showed its dismay for Brazil, who can now be bet upon at 0 1.96.
Neymar’s likely replacement is Chelsea’s Willian, a direct winger who will pose a different threat to Germany’s backline. This is likely contributing to our Totals markets moving towards Under 2 goals, which opened @ 2.15 and is now @ 2.00. Germany’s greatest perceived weakness is a defense that plays four centerbacks; not having to cope with Neymar should make that defense’s task easier.
Thiago Silva
While Neymar has had the headlines, it’s Silva whose status will likely have the most effect on market movement. Brazil’s captain received his second yellow card of the tournament against Colombia, disqualifying him from playing against the Germans. Should that ruling stand, Silva’s likely replacement is Bayern Munich’s Dante, and although he is a capable replacement, Brazil will likely miss the leadership that Thiago Silva brings. Brazil has made an appeal on Silva’s second yellow card; the result of that appeal should immediately move markets for the match.
Home Field Advantage
Beyond Silva, the real question bettors must solve is just how pronounced Brazil’s home-field advantage is. This article determined the value of HFA in English Premier League, but there are some who feel Brazil’s advantage has been even more pronounced, with strong complaints from disposed opponents regarding referees not booking the Selecao for offenses a visiting nation might not get away with. As a bettor, you must determine the precise value of that advantage. Do so, and you may have your edge.
Summary
Both nations have covered the spread in 3 of 5 matches thus far in the tournament. Pinnacle Sports’ 1X2 markets have Brazil at 2.78 (a 36% probability of winning), the Germans 35.3% (35.5%) and the regulation time draw at 3.25. Enjoy the semi-final.