Tuesday's World Cup Tips
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Italy vs. Uruguay
Tuesday’s biggest match sees Italy play Uruguay in what is a straight play-off for the last 16. Uruguay need a win, while a draw would see Italy through. Costa Rica are top of the group, and only Italy can realistically leapfrog the World Cup’s real surprise package and secure a date with, most likely, either Ivory Coast or Greece. Both sides were embarrassed by Costa Rica and, for two sides who have won a quarter of the World Cups over history between them, exiting at the group stage is seen as a major failure.
The game takes place at the Estadio das Dunas in Natal, in the north-east of Brazil, at 1 o’clock in the afternoon. The conditions will be very difficult in the searing midday sun, and this will have an effect on the play. Uruguay will have the greater advantage in the conditions: they defend deep, and have players who can burst forward with pace into the opposing half. Interestingly, of the six games to be played in the north of the country between Europeans and non-Europeans, the European side has won just once. And that one occasion was Croatia’s 4-0 win over a Cameroon side that had ten men for most of the match.
Italy are very slight favourites to win the match at 8/5 with Sportsbook.ag, but seeing as they have only scored twice in two games and were awful against Costa Rica. Uruguay are 17/10 to do the job, with a draw at 9/4.
Already in this World Cup there have been two instances of matches where one team needs to win, and the other only needs a draw. Both times the team that has only needed a draw has gone into half-time 0-0, and then won the match. These matches were Mexico 3-1 Croatia and Netherlands 2-0 Chile. The team that needs to win commits more and more men forward as time ebbs away, leaving gaps for the opposition to exploit. Italy to be winning at full-time after going into half-time level is a very tempting 9/2 shot.
Bookmakers are expecting a low-scoring game, with under 2.5 goals at 77/100 and over 2.5 at 1/1. Uruguay’s defence, however, looks a bit overrated, particularly if the ponderous Diego Lugano plays. Meanwhile Oscar Tabarez’s side have the wonderful Luis Suarez at the other end of the pitch - possibly the best striker in world football. If you’re betting on this market I’d be more inclined towards the ‘over’.
In the first goalscorer market, the two main frontmen, Suarez and Mario Balotelli, lead the way at 7/2 and 9/2 respectively. However there are strong calls in Italy for new Borussia Dortmund striker Ciro Immobile to be handed a start. He may make more appeal at 11/2 after a fantastic season with Torino, where he was the top Serie A goalscorer.
Top Bet: Draw/Italy in the half-time/full-time market at 9/2.
England vs. Costa Rica
The other match in this group sees England face a Costa Rica side who, as we all expected, have little to play for in the last group stage game. But incredibly, the reason they have nothing to play for is that, after stunning victories over Uruguay and Italy, they are now guaranteed of a place in the knockout rounds for the first time ever. And having been around 10/1 to beat England before the tournament started, they are now as short as 5/2. England, with two close defeats, are 1/1 and a draw is 13/5.
Both sides will rest players for this, particularly England with Roy Hodgson keen to give as many people as possible a taste of tournament football. Adam Lallana, Luke Shaw, Ben Foster, Chris Smalling, Frank Lampard, James Milner, Phil Jones, Ross Barkley and Jack Wilshere will all get their first starts of the tournament.
However the bet I like here is for Daniel Sturridge, one of the two regular starters, to score first. He has looked sharp so far and at 7/2 looks a good prospect against a defence that, while it is brave and organised, may be vulnerable to Sturridge’s pace.
Top Bet: Daniel Sturridge to score first at 7/2
Colombia vs. Japan
Colombia meet Japan face off in Group C at the Arena Pantanal with both teams almost assured of their fate. Colombia will top the group barring a minor miracle, while Japan would need to win, hope Greece and Ivory Coast draw, and for goal difference to go their way to qualify. Colombia have won both their matches and have been very impressive. They have a wealth of attacking talent and the ability to break down stubborn defences.
Japan have disappointed slightly. Their old weaknesses have come to the fore: they are good in the middle third of the pitch, but struggle to break teams down, while their defence struggles with height and physicality.
Even though they may well rest players, it is very hard to ignore quotes of 6/5 about a Colombia win here. They came second in South American qualifying and are now as short as 25/1 to win their first World Cup. Japan look far too short at 11/5, while a draw is 13/5. However the gulf in class between the sides is such that I am amazed to see odds-against quotes on Colombia.
Top Bet: Colombia to win at 6/5
Ivory Coast vs. Greece
The match that is likely to decide who follows Colombia into the last 16 from Group C sees Greece face Ivory Coast at the Castelão in Fortaleza, only three degrees south of the equator.
In an amazing twist of fate, Greece - just as dour, defensive and brave as always - find themselves in the same position as before their final group game: two poor performances, one point, and yet bizarrely finding themselves in the position where a win from their final game would see them through. Ivory Coast turned around a 1-0 half-time deficit to beat Japan, before losing 2-1 themselves to Colombia.
The Elephants, with Drogba and the Toure brothers still in the squad, are the 19/20 favourites, but for a team that has developed a deserved reputation as bottlers, this does not look appealing. A Greece win is 27/10, while a draw can be backed at 13/5.
My favourite bet in this match is the half-time draw at 21/20. Despite needing a win, it is against Greece’s nature to be too bold; instead they will sit back and aim to still be in with a chance by half-time.
Top Bet: Draw at half-time at 21/20
Italy vs. Uruguay Betting Preview and Pick
By: Al Hain-Cole
Goal.com
After surprise package Costa Rica all but secured top spot in Group D with a game to spare, Italy and Uruguay are left fighting it out for second place when they meet in Natal on Tuesday (12 p.m. ET, ESPN).
La Celeste have put themselves back in contention at England's expense with a 2-1 victory over Roy Hodgson's side last time out. The Azzurri appeared well on their way to a place in the last 16 after beating the Three Lions in their opening match, but then fell 1-0 to Los Ticos.
Tuesday’s game is being called a pick ‘em in Las Vegas, with both Uruguay and Italy priced at +170 odds to win the match.
A draw would be enough to see the Azzurri progress on goal difference, and you can get odds of +220 on them claiming just a point for their seventh match in 11.
The meek 1-0 defeat against Costa Rica has seen Cesare Prandelli come under pressure to adopt a more attacking approach for this crucial showdown, and those prayers look set to be answered with the inclusion of Serie A top scorer Ciro Immobile for injured defensive midfielder Daniele De Rossi.
This change of personnel should lead to a shift from a four-man defense to three at the back, perhaps a risky move considering the quality of attackers the back line are set to come up against.
Any teething problems in implementing this switch are sure to be pounced upon by a partnership of Edinson Cavani and Luis Suarez that looked back to their best straight away on the Liverpool man's return to the team against England, meaning an entertaining game should be in prospect.
With this in mind, odds of -115 at William Hill U.S. on both teams finding the net seem too good to pass up. The bet figures to cash for the ninth time in Italy’s last 12 games when they set out to attack Oscar Tabarez's deadly counter-attacking team (the props for the game posted at William Hill U.S. are listed in the document below).
For added value, the 11-to-8 odds on OVER 2.5 goals with both teams scoring – which can be found outside of Nevada – are well worth backing. Uruguay cannot settle for a draw, and the bet that has paid out in both of the South Americans' World Cup games so far.
Applying the same theories to wagers available in Nevada, going OVER 2.5 goals at +110 also warrants consideration.
England vs. Costa Rica Preview and Pick
By: Hugh Wilson
Goal.com
After two defeats in two matches for Roy Hodgson's men, England officially exited the World Cup after Costa Rica avoided defeat against Italy.
The Three Lions play Jorge Luis Pinto's men in their final group match (12 p.m. ET, ESPN2), with La Sele being one of the standout sides in the World Cup so far. If they gain at least one point against Hodgson's men, they will win Group D -- not bad for a team who was just 45-to-1 at William Hill U.S. to emerge as the top team from the group.
With England having only pride for which to play, Hodgson will hope for a positive end to a poor tournament.
The England manager has already come out to say that he will make changes in personnel for the match against Costa Rica and look to play the fringe players in this match. The LVH SuperBook prices them as -120 favorites to win the match.
Costa Rica will come into this game full of confidence after securing qualification already and rightly so, winning convincingly against Uruguay and getting the better of an impressive battle against Italy, 1-0.
Pinto's men were tipped to be the whipping-boys of Group D but have shocked all with their performances. They are drawing +320 odds to win at the LVH, with the same sports book pricing the draw at +275.
Despite these two sides' form, the market still heavily favors England. With the poor results in mind and an untried 11 likely to take the field in Belo Horizonte, it is worth siding with the South Americans in this fixture.
The 11-to-5 price for the Central Americans to net two or more goals -- offered outside of Nevada -- may be tempting, with this bet landing against England in both of their World Cup matches so far. However, with Costa Rica only netting two or more in two of their last eight matches, it is worth looking elsewhere for a safer bet.
Costa Rica plus a half-goal, which is offered at even-money at the LVH, is the play.
Pinto's side only need a point to top the group and could look to play on the break, with England searching for that elusive win. Those tactics have proved successful for Costa Rica so far in the World Cup and, with England desperately short of confidence, it is worth siding against them.
Colombia vs. Japan Betting Preview and Pick
By: William Duncan
Goal.com
Colombia have already secured their place in the last 16 of the World Cup, but Jose Pekerman’s men will be keen to make it three wins from three matches in the group stages when they take on Japan in Cuiaba on Tuesday (4 p.m. ET, ESPN).
The South Americans have been in fine form throughout the tournament thus far, recording deserved victories over Greece and Ivory Coast, and look to be a solid selection at +115 odds at the LVH SuperBook in Vegas to claim all three points from their meeting with the Asian champions.
James Rodriguez has been Colombia’s top performer in the tournament thus far with a goal in both of the previous Group C fixtures for the South Americans, and the 7-to-1 odds for the 22-year-old to notch the opener – which can be found outside of Vegas – is sure to attract plenty of support from bettors.
Japan came into the tournament with high hopes, but defeat against Ivory Coast followed by a dismal 0-0 draw against 10-man Greece has severely dented the hopes of Alberto Zaccharoni’s charges.
Nothing less than victory will do for Japan, who can be backed at chunky odds of +230 at the LVH to enjoy a vital victory in Cuiaba, while the same book prices a draw at +250.
With victory essential for Zaccheroni’s men, Japan will be forced to adopt an attack-minded philosophy on Tuesday and that will likely play into the hands of Colombia, who will be happy to soak up the pressure and hit on the break with swift counter-attacking play.
Subsequently, Tuesday’s tussle has plenty of potential for goals at both ends, and OVER 2.5 goals, which can be backed at a generous price of even-money at the LVH, offers solid value.
OVER 2.5 goals is the recommended play for bettors here.
Greece vs. Ivory Coast Betting Preview and Pick
By: Phil Kitromilides
Goal.com
The future of both sides at this World Cup is on the line Tuesday as Greece meet Ivory Coast (4 p.m. ET, ESPN2). For the Africans the situation is simple, win and they are through to the last 16. For the Greeks things are slightly more complex, as they need a victory and then also a favor from Colombia in beating Japan in the day’s other Group C game.
The Europeans are the underdogs, priced at +260 odds at CG Technologies in Las Vegas, while Ivory Coast can be backed at -105 and the draw is offered at +240.
The temptation, of course, as it is with almost every match involving Greece, is to back a low-scoring encounter, and UNDER 2.5 goals is offered at -130 odds in Vegas.
Yet Fernando Santos´side need a victory so they are obliged to score and therefore may opt for a slightly more attacking approach.
There is, of course, a caveat to that suggestion: despite potentially have offensive intentions, Greece lack a cutting edge up front.
Expect then a tight game and the price of +110 for a draw at half time, a prop that can be found outside of Las Vegas, looks tempting.
This bet has paid out in three of Greece's last five games as well as in Ivory Coast's last game against Colombia, and with both teams playing for their World Cup lives, a tight opening 45 minutes could be in the cards.
World Cup Game of the Day: Italy vs. Uruguay
By Covers.com
Italy vs. Uruguay (+180, +175, Draw +230)
Italy still controls its own fate entering its final World Cup Group D game Tuesday afternoon, but comes in on a low note following an uninspired effort against Costa Rica. The Azzurri look to bounce back from a 1-0 defeat as it faces a determined Uruguayan side that can knock the Italians out of the event with a victory at Natal's Estadio das Dunas. Uruguay put itself in position to advance with a thrilling 2-1 victory over a disappointing English side.
The teams know one another well, having faced off in the third-place game at last year's Confederations Cup tournament in Brazil. They played to an entertaining 2-2 draw before Italy prevailed in penalties, reversing a recent trend that has seen Uruguay own the upper hand. The match will pit two of the planet's most gifted strikers against one another, with Uruguay's Luis Suarez - fresh off two goals against England - matched up against Mario Balotelli.
WORLD RANKINGS: Italy: No. 9; Uruguay: No. 7.
INJURY REPORT: Italy: MF Daniele De Rossi suffered a right calf injury and may miss the game; Uruguay: MF Alvaro Pereira could miss the game with a concussion; D Diego Lugano will likely sit out with a knee injury.
WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "This a huge game for both teams, the victor can progress to the next round, the draw however will mean Italy progress to the last 16, One would expect Italy to bounce back after their embarrassment to Costa Rica, but we shouldn't write of the Uruguayans, confidence will be high in their camp after Luis Suarez helped them overcome England in the last game." Covers Expert Footy Tipster
WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "After losing to Costa Rica last week the Italians need a win against Uruguay to move on to the round of 16. Uruguay is coming off a huge win against England. Italy is (-200) to move on to the round of 16 while Uruguay is (+165) to move on. For this match up, Italy is a slight favorite but the majority of the action is coming in on the under dog Uruguay team with 66 percent of the action. The trend of betting the over continues as 100 percent of the action is on the over on the 2.5 goal total." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.
ABOUT ITALY: Manager Cesare Prandelli made no excuses following the stunning loss to Costa Rica, crediting the opponent with executing a flawless game plan. "We didn't get our tactics wrong," Prandelli told reporters. "They were very, very aggressive and we were trying to find different ways into the game but we didn't manage it." The absence of De Rossi will be felt throughout the Italy midfield, though the club has a capable fill-in in Marco Verratti, who drew the starting assignment in the game against England.
ABOUT URUGUAY: After some late heroics guided the club past the English and into second stage contention, the Uruguayans are approaching Tuesday's match with all the seriousness of a tournament championship. Manager Oscar Tabarez realizes that the game could go either way - judging by the numbers, oddsmakers feel the same way - and believes he'll have his players ready. "We give a great deal of importance to showing a good attitude in this group," Tabarez said. "The difference between winning and losing is infinitesimal - it's down to the small details."
TRENDS:
* Uruguay has three wins and four draws in nine previous games against Italy.
* The Italians have held the Uruguayans without a goal in their two prior World Cup encounters.
* Suarez has scored five goals in seven career World Cup matches.
* Italy has lost just three times in 19 all-time World Cup matches versus South American foes.
Uruguay, Italy look to advance Tuesday
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox,com
Italy and Uruguay clash on Tuesday in a matchup that will decide which team will be advancing to the Round of 16.
Italy is in a position where they can advance with a draw against Uruguay, however, their opponents will need a victory to keep on playing this summer. Italy will not be able to play for a draw or they could be sent packing, as they will have to match the intensity of what will surely be a desperate Uruguay team.
In the opening match of group play, Italy defeated England 2-1 in a very tight affair. Their next game was a match with Costa Rica and they were heavily favored to win, but they were handed a 1-0 upset loss. Italy did a good job of controlling the game, but they were unable to score when it mattered most. They won the time of possession battle with 58%, but they were dead even in shots on goal at 6-6. Costa Rica was much more aggressive defensively, finishing the game with 23 tackles compared to just 14 by Italy. The Italian defenders will need to be tougher next game, but it’ll be up to their strikers to get them on the board. Another zero-goal performance will likely mean them heading back home after the game.
Uruguay was upset 3-1 in their first game against Costa Rica and went into the England match with not many giving them a chance to advance. This all changed when Luis Suarez scored two goals in a monumental win over the English.
In Uruguay’s match against England, their best player needed to perform at his highest level, and despite being injured earlier in the tournament, Suarez was able to score the first goal of the game at the 39-minute mark. After Wayne Rooney tied it up for England at 75 minutes, Suarez put home the game-winner just 10 minutes later. England dominated in time of possession with 62% compared to just 38% for Uruguay. They also had more shots on goal than Uruguay at 8-6. The only difference in the game was Suarez, and he will need to play equally as well against Italy if his team is going to pick up a victory and advance. All eyes will be on the Uruguay superstar, so open-field opportunities will not come by often.
Costa Rica tries to stay hot Tuesday vs. England
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
England looks to head home with a victory Tuesday when they face a Costa Rica team that has already earned the right to play in the knockout rounds with two wins in Group D.
Costa Rica was considered to be the weakest team in Group D, but now they are the only team with a clinched spot in the Round of 16. Their defense has been the story with just one goal allowed in two games thus far. England will be heading home after a very disappointing 2014 World Cup outing, but first they will have a chance to at least win one game with a matchup with what is an underdog Costa Rica club.
Many dismissed Costa Rica’s 3-1 win over Uruguay. They saw it as a fluke and didn’t think they’d win another game in Group D play. Then Costa Rica squared off against Italy and proved that they were not pretenders. Despite losing time of possession with just 42% compared to Italy’s 58%, Costa Rica made the most of their chances. The teams were tied 6-6 in shots on goal, but only Costa Rica would capitalize on one of their shot opportunities. Bryan Ruiz scored what would be the game's only goal at the game’s 44-minute mark. Costa Rica can now shock the world with a win over England that would leave them undefeated in Group D play.
England played Italy in a tough opening match of the World Cup and they came away with a 2-1 loss. They headed into a matchup with Uruguay in a must-win situation, but they were unable to get the job done. After falling behind 1-0 on a goal by Luis Suarez at the 39-minute mark, England would tie up at 75 minutes on a goal by Wayne Rooney. The change in momentum, however, would not help England for long, as Suarez found the back of the net again at the 85-minute mark. A draw would’ve kept England alive, but instead they will be playing for only their pride when they take the field on Tuesday.
Japan looks to upset Colombia Tuesday
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
Japan will need a victory over Group C leader Colombia Tuesday if they are going to have any chance of advancing to the knockout rounds.
Japan played a close game against Ivory Coast in their opening match in group play. They lost 2-1 in the end after leading 1-0 just 16 minutes into the game. They went on to play yet another tight one against Greece in their second match. Colombia has already clinched themselves a spot in the Round of 16 after two big victories to open up group play. With a +4 goal differential, they are a near lock to win the group ahead of Ivory Coast with has three points and a zero goal differential. But Colombia will look to head into the knockout rounds with an undefeated 3-0 record when they play against Japan on Tuesday.
After losing 2-1 to Ivory Coast in their first match, Japan knew that they would need at least a draw in order to keep their hopes alive of advancing on. While the game was far from pretty for either team, it ended up in a 0-0 tie and Japan was able to pick up a crucial point. Despite the game being a tie, Japan really outplayed Greece, outshooting them 11-5 and they dominated the time of possession battle, as they had the ball for 68% of the game. If Japan is able to control play like that again, it’s unlikely they won’t find the back of the net at least once.
Colombia has looked excellent in the World Cup so far and that play has earned them a spot in the Round of 16. After a 3-0 win in their opening match in group play, Colombia had to take on Ivory Coast in what was a very exciting game. The first goal came 64 minutes into the contest when James Rodriguez scored to give Colombia a 1-0 lead. Juan Quintero would make it 2-0 and that would prove to be the difference maker in the game. Ivory Coast scored at the 73-minute mark to cut the lead to one, but they were unable to even it up. Colombia lost the time of possession battle with just 45% and they also were outshot on goal 12-8. The only thing that mattered, however, was that they scored more.
Greece, Ivory Coast clash on Tuesday
By: Freddy Wander
StatFox.com
Greece and Ivory Coast will battle Tuesday in a match that will have major implications in terms of which teams from Group C will advance to the Round of 16.
Greece looks to pick up a big victory over Ivory Coast after a tie against Japan that kept them in contention for berth in the knockout round. A draw or a loss would mean that they fail to advance. After winning their first match in group play, Ivory Coast’s comeback attempt came up short in a 2-1 loss to Colombia. They can now advance to the knockout rounds with a draw or a victory against a Greece team that needs three points to continue its tournament.
Despite not having a single goal in the entire tournament, Greece could still advance to the Round of 16 with a victory over Ivory Coast and some help elsewhere. After losing their opening game 3-0 to Colombia, Greece played against Japan and the match ended in a 0-0 tie. Greece was wildly outplayed, and was fortunate to even come away with a draw. They were outshot 11-5 on goal and had possession of the ball for just 32% of the game. A similar effort against Ivory Coast will likely have the team packing its bags and heading home. Saying that they need to generate more opportunities offensively would be an understatement.
Ivory Coast has looked very good at times during this World Cup, winning their first match 2-1 against Japan and then outplaying Colombia in a 2-1 loss. The team outshot Colombia on goal 12-8 and they also won the battle in time of possession, as they had the ball for 55% of the game compared to just 45% for their opponent. After falling behind 2-0 on goals by James Rodriguez at 64 minutes and Juan Quintero at 70 minutes, Gervinho scored to make the game 2-1 at the 73-minute mark. Ivory Coast, however, was unable to tie it up and they must now come through with a big effort against Greece. If they lose, they will need help in order to advance.