World Cup Betting News and Notes Wednesday, July 9

Netherlands vs. Argentina Betting Preview and Pick
By: Hugh Wilson
Goal.com

Netherlands and Argentina face off in the second World Cup semifinal in Brazil on Wednesday (4 p.m. ET, ESPN), with Oranje looking to go one better than four years ago, when they lost in the final to Spain, and the Albiceleste looking to lift the trophy for the first time since 1986.

Alejandro Sabella’s men have reached the final four for the first time since 1990, where they went onto beat Italy before losing in the final to West Germany.

Despite their status as favorites on Wednesday, Argentina will not be counting their chickens as they face a tough match against Netherlands, and there appears to be little to choose between the sides.

Sabella’s men beat Belgium in a tight contest in the quarterfinals, with Gonzalo Higuain’s goal the difference with the South Americans winning 1-0. The LVH SuperBook prices Argentina at +140 odds to be victorious against Oranje in normal time (90 minutes plus injury time).

Netherlands kicked off their World Cup in Brazil in style with a 5-1 win over defending champions Spain. Since that result, however, Louis van Gaal’s men have not played to their true potential, struggling past Australia in the group stage then beating Mexico with two late goals in the last 16 before needing penalties to get past Costa Rica in the quarterfinals.

The Dutch have not lost to Argentina in their last four encounters, winning two and drawing two. The LVH prices them at +220 on the three-way result to make their second successive World Cup final. The Vegas bet shop offers the draw at the same +220 odds.

The SuperBook has Argentina priced at -140 to advance to the final, and the Netherlands listed at odds of +120.

Apart from netting three goals against Nigeria, Argentina have not looked deadly in front of goal, with only Lionel Messi making an impact on the scoresheet regularly.

Netherlands, however, are the highest scorers in the competition, scoring 12 goals so far. Despite this, they missed numerous chances against Costa Rica in 120 minutes and failed to score. Expect a tight match in Sao Paulo, but the posted total of 2 goals at the LVH (OVER -115, UNDER -105) is too low to go UNDER.

Instead it is worth looking at the highest-scoring-half market, available outside of Las Vegas. Netherlands have come alive in the second half of their World Cup matches so far in Brazil, with 80 per cent of their goals being scored in the second period. Just under half of the goals that they have netted have come between the 75-90 minute mark.

With Argentina scoring over 60 percent of their goals in the second half of their World Cup matches, the price of the second 45 minutes to have the most goals at +120 is the play.

Bet of the day: Second half to be the highest scoring half at +120 (6/5)

Wednesday's Semifinal
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com

Argentina vs. Netherlands

Well I was right about one thing yesterday: it was certainly a memorable match. But everything else I got spectacularly wrong. There was always a chance Brazil might get thrashed, but nobody could have predicted what happened in Belo Horizonte. Germany’s 7-1 win will be one of those ‘Where were you when’ games. They will now play either Argentina or Netherlands in the World Cup final in Rio de Janeiro.

Well I was right about one thing yesterday: it was certainly a memorable match. But everything else I got spectacularly wrong. There was always a chance Brazil might get thrashed, but nobody could have predicted what happened in Belo Horizonte. Germany’s 7-1 win will be one of those ‘Where were you when’ games. They will now play either Argentina or Netherlands in the World Cup final in Rio de Janeiro.

This match is a repeat of the 1978 World Cup final (Argentina 3-1 Holland). The reward for Argentina is a repeat of the 1990 final (Germany 1-0 Argentina), and the reward for the Dutch is a repeat of the 1974 final (West Germany 2-1 Holland). After Germany’s unbelievable show of strength, the winner will go into the final as outsiders.

Argentina have managed to win every game at the World Cup so far (although they needed extra time to see off Switzerland), but they have been far from convincing. Rather like Brazil with Neymar, there is a suspicion that everything would fall apart were it not for Lionel Messi. The defence and goalkeeper are uncertain, there is not a huge amount of creativity in midfield, and Gonzalo Higuain and Sergio Aguero have both disappointed.

Alejandro Sabella has a big selection dilemma: Angel Di Maria is injured. There are few players in world football like Di Maria, let alone in the Argentine squad, so Sabella cannot make a like-for-like change. He will either bring in Rodrigo Palacio, and play four very attacking players, or Lucas Biglia will slot in alongside Fernando Gago, or he will return to the 5 at the back he tried (unsuccessfully) in the first half against Bosnia.

The Netherlands have not really impressed since their win over Spain on the first match day, but Argentina are the most similar side to Spain they have yet faced. Like Spain, they will play a possession game no matter what and, like Spain, they can leave their defence exposed. Nigel De Jong looks set to come back into the team. Despite concerns over his injury, they will need him to combat Messi. The midfield duo they played in the quarters against Costa Rica of Georginho Wijnaldum and Wesley Sneijder simply would not be able to do this.

Both teams have one outstanding player. Both sides look to this player for most of their attacking inspiration, and the priority of both sides’ defences will be to combat this key player. For Argentina it is Lionel Messi; for Holland it is Arjen Robben. Nigel De Jong will likely man-mark Messi, while none of the Argentine defenders are good enough to take on Robben one-on-one. They will look to crowd him out, but given his recent performances, this will be a tough ask.

I’m siding with the outsiders Holland here to qualify for the final at 11/10 with Sportsbook.ag. Argentina are nowhere near as naive as Brazil, nor are Holland as ruthless as Germany, but there is a coolness under pressure to the European teams that the South Americans don’t have. It is hard to see how Argentina will cope with Robben, who simply never has a quiet game, and there has been little in Argentina’s performances so far to suggest that the Dutch defence, that has exceeded expectations so far, will be greatly troubled, other than by Messi.

I’d be happier punting on the ‘To Qualify’ market rather than the match winner market where the Dutch are 19/10. I don’t see this being a high-scoring game, and there is a strong likelihood of extra time. This is reflected in a draw being quite short at 9/4. Argentina are the 3/2 favourites.

In the goalscorer markets, Bayern Munich man Robben looks the pick of the bunch. He plays as a more orthodox striker for his country than at club level, and at 9/2 to break the deadlock he looks the value wager. However if you can have an in-play bet on him to score next from about an hour onwards, this would look the best way to go. Robben’s influence grows during matches as defences tire. He was the inspiration behind their late comeback against Mexico in the fiery heat of Fortaleza, and he tore Spain apart in the second half of their 5-1 win on the second day of the World Cup. He will most likely be 9/2 in-play as well.

Top Bet: Netherlands to qualify at 11/10

Netherlands vs. Argentina
By Sportsbook.ag

Netherlands vs. Argentina

Kickoff: Wednesday, 4:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Arena Corinthians
Location: Sao Paulo, Brazil

Sportsbook.ag Line:
Argentina +140, Netherlands +207, Tie after Regulation +225
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +170, Under -192)

Argentina hopes to celebrate its nation's Independence Day on Wednesday when it meets the Netherlands in the semifinals of the 2014 World Cup.

Neither team has had an easy path to the semifinals, as the Dutch trailed Mexico by a 1-0 score 87 minutes into their Round of 16 match before scoring twice in a seven-minute span to win 2-1. The game-winner came on a disputed penalty kick. Then in the quarterfinals, the Netherlands needed a penalty-kick shootout to decide a scoreless match with heavy underdog Costa Rica. Backup goalkeeper Tim Krul, a last-minute substitution for the shorter Jasper Cillessen, saved two shots to lead the Netherlands to victory.

The Maracana has won all five of its matches in this tournament, with all five victories coming by a one-goal margin. In the Round of 16 contest, Argentina failed to score until the 118th minute in a 1-0 win over Switzerland, but got on the board in the 8th minute in the quarterfinals and barely held on for a 1-0 win over Belgium. That sent the Maracana into the semifinal round for the first time since 1990 to meet a Dutch club that will be playing in its third semifinal in the past five World Cups, a run that includes a runner-up showing in 2010 when it fell 1-0 to Spain.

While Argentina is likely to see the return of forward Sergio Aguero, who missed the quarterfinal match because of a thigh injury, the team will be without starting midfielder Angel di Maria, who suffered a thigh injury of his own in the win over Belgium. The Netherlands will once again be missing defensive-minded midfielder Nigel de Jong, who suffered a groin injury versus Mexico. His likely replacement, Leroy Fer, is also hurting with an injured hamstring is considered questionable for Wednesday.

This is a rematch of the 1978 final when Argentina beat the Netherlands 3-1 in extra time. However, the Dutch returned the favor by beating the Maracana in the 1988 World Cup quarterfinals.

The Netherlands had scored multiple goals in each of their first four World Cup matches, outscoring their opponents by a wide 12-4 margin, but were unable to score against Costa Rica despite 20 total shots, with 15 of those going on goal. The Dutch allowed only six total shots (three on goal) to the Ticos, and held sizable advantages in possession (64% to 36%) and corner kicks (11-1). But the Netherlands played sloppy in the quarterfinal win, committing 15 fouls and picking up two potential costly yellow cards (defender Bruno Martins and forward Klaas-Jan Huntelaar), while being whistled for 13 offsides. Plenty of Dutch players have tallied in the goal-scoring column in this tournament so far, a list that includes the club's top player, forward Arjen Robben (three goals), forward Robin van Persie (three goals) and forward Memphis Depay (two goals).

Superstar Lionel Messi has arguably been the best player in the World Cup, and has carried Argentina with four of his team's seven goals, and he also set up teammate Angel di Maria's one-timer with a perfect pass at the 118th minute to escape past Switzerland in the Round of 16. Messi has made 180 passes in the tournament despite constant double and triple teaming from opponents. The other three World Cup tallies for the Maracana came on a fortunate own goal by Bosnia-Herzegovina, Marcos Rojo's game-winner versus Nigeria and Gonzalo Higuain's volley in the 8th minute for the lone goal of the quarterfinal victory.

Although Argentina has not dominated in this tournament as many experts expected they would versus a perceived weak schedule, they have won possession in all five matches with 55% against Bosnia-Herzegovina, a whopping 70% versus Iran, 57% against Nigeria, 61% versus the Swiss and a slight 51% advantage against Belgium. The Maracana have also fired 39 shots in the knockout stage with 29 going on goal (74%), giving them 57 total shots with 42 on net (74%) in the past three matches combined. After generating only two corner-kick chances in their World Cup opener, they have produced 38 corner kicks over the past four contests, totaling 16 in the two knockout-stage wins.

The Maracana played a very clean tournament in group play with only 24 total fouls and one yellow card (Rojo). However, in the knockout stage, they have been whistled for 30 fouls, including four yellow cards (Rojo, di Maria, midfielder Lucas Biglia and defender Ezequiel Garay). Rojo was not allowed to play in the quarterfinals because of his two yellow cards, but he will be back to help his team on Wednesday.

Netherlands vs. Argentina Propositions

First Goal Scorer

Lionel Messi 15/4
Robin van Persie 19/4
Sergio Aguero 5/1
Gonzalo Higuain 5/1
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar 11/2
Arjen Robben 6/1
Rodrigo Palacio 13/2
Ezequiel Lavezzi 15/2
Memphis Depay 8/1
Jeremain Lens 8/1
Wesley Sneijder 8/1
Georginio Wijnaldum 17/2
Maxi Rodriguez 17/2
Dirk Kuyt 19/2
Ricardo Alvarez 12/1
Augusto Fernandez 14/1
Leroy Fer 16/1
Enzo Perez 18/1
Jonathan de Guzman 18/1
Jordy Clasie 20/1
Lucas Biglia 22/1
Fernando Gago 25/1
Paul Verhaegh 28/1
Federico Fernandez 28/1
Pablo Zabaleta 33/1
Martin Demichelis 33/1
Marcos Rojo 33/1
Jose Basanta 33/1
Joel Veltman 33/1
Javier Mascherano 33/1
Stefan de Vrij 33/1
Ezequiel Garay 33/1
Daryl Janmaat 33/1
Daley Blind 33/1
Ron Vlaar 33/1
Bruno Martins Indi 33/1
Terence Kongolo 40/1
Hugo Campagnaro 40/1

To Score Anytime

Lionel Messi 1/1
Robin van Persie 6/5
Gonzalo Higuain 17/10
Sergio Aguero 17/10
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar 7/4
Arjen Robben 7/4
Rodrigo Palacio 2/1
Ezequiel Lavezzi 12/5
Wesley Sneijder 13/5
Memphis Depay 11/4
Dirk Kuyt 3/1
Jeremain Lens 3/1
Maxi Rodriguez 7/2
Ricardo Alvarez 19/5
Georginio Wijnaldum 9/2
Augusto Fernandez 5/1
Jonathan de Guzman 6/1
Enzo Perez 6/1
Leroy Fer 6/1
Fernando Gago 7/1
Lucas Biglia 7/1
Jordy Clasie 15/2
Marcos Rojo 9/1
Javier Mascherano 9/1
Pablo Zabaleta 9/1
Federico Fernandez 9/1
Ezequiel Garay 9/1
Daley Blind 19/2
Ron Vlaar 19/2
Bruno Martins Indi 19/2
Stefan de Vrij 19/2
Daryl Janmaat 11/1
Jose Basanta 11/1
Hugo Campagnaro 11/1
Martin Demichelis 11/1
Joel Veltman 11/1
Paul Verhaegh 11/1
Terence Kongolo 16/1

Check out more Game and Player Props at Sportsbook.ag!

World Cup Game of the Day: Netherlands vs. Argentina
By Covers.com

Netherlands vs. Argentina (+240, +140, Draw +220)

The Netherlands and Argentina have played for significant World Cup stakes before - and the Dutch can only hope things are different this time around as the two sides square off Wednesday afternoon for a spot in the 2014 final. Holland has reached the final three times but has never won - and one of those losses came to Argentina back in 1978. The winner will face xxx, which defeated xxx x-x in the other semifinal.

The focus of the match on either side will be Argentina striker Lionel Messi, whose heroics are a big part of his country's return to the World Cup final four. He has four goals in five games, and set up Angel di Maria's game-winner against Switzerland. Di Maria is expected to miss the game with a thigh injury, which should take a great deal of pressure off the Dutch as they look to make it back-to-back World Cup final appearances.

WORLD RANKINGS: Netherlands: No. 15; Argentina: No. 5.

INJURY REPORT: Netherlands: MF Nigel de Jong was expected to miss the match with a thigh injury but has participated in training and could be in the lineup. Argentina: MF Angel di Maria will miss the game with a thigh injury; F Sergio Aguero has been declared fit to play despite a groin injury.

WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "The Dutch will represent the most potent attack the Argies have had to face so far in the tournament. La Albiceleste narrowly got through against the Swiss and Belgians in two very mediocre performances. Both sides look evenly matched on paper and it may take the world's best player, Lionel Messi, to make the difference in São Paulo on Wednesday night." Covers Expert Footy Tipster

WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "The 2010 runners up, the Netherlands look to get back to the final in back-to-back World Cups, which has only happened four times in World Cup History. If the Netherlands make it back to the finals it will be the second time as a Nation to make it to two-straight Finals. Meanwhile, Argentina has quietly made it to the semis and are looking to recapture the World Cup title, their first finals appearance since 1990. As for the game, the Netherlands are seeing 40 percent of the action to win in regulation while a tie in regulation is seeing 30 percent of the action. The 2.5 goal total has 65 percent of the action on the under." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag

ABOUT THE NETHERLANDS: The Dutch are expected to take no chances against a dangerous Argentine side, with Manager Louis Van Gaal expected to employ a 5-3-2 system that has been wildly successful so far. Yet, as well as the Netherlands have played, there are still those who are nervous about Robin Van Persie's uneven effort so far in Brazil. The veteran striker struggled mightily in group play and was suspended for the final group stage game versus Chile.

ABOUT ARGENTINA: It has been 24 years since the Argentines have appeared in the World Cup title game, though history is on their side; they're a perfect 3-0 in semifinal matches. The absence of di Maria will no doubt be felt, but it should be mitigated by the resurgence of struggling Gonzalo Higuain, who finally scored in the quarterfinal triumph over Belgium. Enzo Perez replaced di Maria in the midfield following the injury, and is the likely starter against the Dutch.

TRENDS:

* The teams have met eight times in history, with the Dutch winning four of those while losing just once.
* Messi is even with legend Diego Maradona in caps for Argentina with 91.
* The teams last met at the 2006 World Cup, where they played to a 0-0 draw.
* The Dutch scored 10 goals in three group matches but have just two in two knockout games.