Wednesday's WCup Tips
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Chile vs. Spain
Spain vs Chile is surely the biggest game of Wednesday’s trio of soccer matches. After an astonishing 5-1 humbling at the hands of the Netherlands on Friday night, Spain are in the last chance saloon if they are to prove to the world that their style of patient passing football, ‘tiki-taka’, is still competitive at the highest level. Chile, meanwhile, got past Australia 3-1. They started the game in rip-roaring fashion, going two nil up inside the first quarter of an hour, but struggled to deal with Australia’s crossing thereafter. They only sealed the game thanks to a last minute strike from Jean Beausejour.
Spain are the 61/100 favourites with Sportsbook.ag, but after their traumatic result of just a few days ago this seems far too short, and I find the 4/1 about a Chile win much more appetising. The Chileans have the same devastating pace on the counter-attack that the Netherlands do. Their defence is suspect, but the primary weakness there is height, however Spain don’t put in many crosses at all, so this disadvantage may not be preyed upon by Spain. Spain are not a team that takes any notice of the opposition; they play their way, whoever the opponent may be.
A draw is available at 13/4 - this would be a great result for Chile, and would all but see them through. These are two very bold teams, and the game could be high-scoring. Chile aren’t a ‘grinding out a draw’ kind of side, but the price isn’t bad.
The most interesting tactical question of the match is whether Spain persist with Diego Costa as a centre-forward. He has just had a blistering season at Atletico Madrid, but Spain simply do not play to his strengths. Do they try and adapt their game to him, or do they play Cesc Fabregas as a ‘false number 9’? Spain’s attack was very blunt against a relatively inexperienced Dutch defence. Someone like Pedro, a real winger with more penetration and directness than many in the team, would be a good addition from Del Bosque.
In the First Goalscorer market, Diego Costa leads the way at 9/2, but this price looks much too short with Costa’s lack of fitness and how he doesn’t fit into the Spanish system. A better bet for a Spain goalscorer would be 10/1 Xabi Alonso, who takes penalties. Chile’s defence is not the most careful, and it is easy to imagine them diving into rash challenges in the box.
The nicest bet here, however, is Alexis Sanchez of Chile to break the deadlock at 8/1. While he often becomes a secondary star at Barcelona, he is well and truly the main man for Chile. He broke the deadlock against Australia, and with 23 goals from 66 internationals, he looks well placed to plant a dagger into Spanish hearts with the first goal.
Top Bet: Alexis Sanchez to score first at 8/1
Netherlands vs. Australia
The first game of the day sees Australia meet Netherlands in Porto Alegre. Australia are comfortably the weakest-looking team in the group. They are an inexperienced bunch but, apart from a nightmare first 15 minutes, gave much-fancied Chile a bit of a scare in their first game, despite going down to a 3-1 defeat. The Netherlands stunned Spain 5-1 and are now in pole-position to win the group. They are the 9/50 favourites, with Australia all the way out at 25/2 and the draw a 13/2 chance.
None of these make a huge amount of appeal, and there is more interest in the goalscorer markets. Apart from defenders from set-pieces, Arjen Robben, Robin van Persie and Wesley Sneijder are the only real Dutch goal threats. Of these, Robben at 4/1 looks the most attractive after his brace on Friday. Tim Cahill plays up front for Australia and is renowned as one of the best jumpers in world football. Cross it to him and there’s always a chance he’ll leap up onto the end of it. He’s a 10/1 shot.
Top Bet: Arjen Robben to score first at 4/1
Croatia vs. Cameroon
The last game of the day is from Group A and sees Cameroon meet Croatia in the Arena Amazônia in Manaus. Both teams lost their first game, but in very different ways. Croatia were hugely unfortunate to lose 3-1 to hosts Brazil in the tournament opener, having taken the lead; Cameroon, meanwhile, were extremely poor in a 1-0 (with two perfectly decent goals disallowed for offside) defeat to Mexico that left them with a huge uphill task to qualify.
Croatia are the 49/100 favourites. Cameroon are 5/1 and a draw is available at 7/2. Croatia are clearly better, but I’m happy to leave their price and instead look at prices opposing Cameroon goals. Alex Song, who often plays at centre-back for Barcelona, is the Indomitable Lions’ most creative midfielder, which says a lot. The team frequently looks lost in the final third.
Many people saw Croatia’s defence as a potential weakness, but they managed to keep out Brazil for much of their game in Sao Paulo, and 20/21 on Niko Kovac’s side keeping a clean sheet seems like a good bet.
Top Bet: Croatia to keep a clean sheet at 20/21
Spain vs. Chile Betting Preview and Pick
By: Phil Kitromilides
Goal.com
In Spain there is a somewhat hyperbolic tendency to use the words "a final" to describe a game of significance.
After a their 5-1 humbling in their opening fixture of the tournament, the World Cup trophy seems a long way off but their second group game against Chile has indeed become "a final".
Anything other than a win would almost certainly see the defending champions eliminated at the group stage, thus adding an element of pressure to what would already have been one of the most attractive games of the tournament.
After their opening 3-1 success over Australia the Chileans are offered at +540 at the LVH SuperBook to record a win over Spain, and it is worth remembering that the South Americans came within seconds of beating the World Champions in a friendly back in the winter, before conceding in injury time to draw 2-2.
And that is the thing with Chile; they score by they also concede, as their first group game against Australia demonstrated, and Spain will undoubtedly have plenty of chances to get the win they need, which is priced at -210 at the SuperBook.
Vicente del Bosque's players speaking of how focused they are on getting back to winning ways might attract some attention, as will the selection of both teams to score despite odds of just -145 on that prop at William Hill U.S. The full list of props on the game offered at William Hill U.S. is in the scrollable document below.
But for our purposes the price of 5-to-4 for OVER 1.5 goals in the first half, a bet that can be found outside of Las Vegas, looks to offer much more attractive value.
The LVH’s first-half total is 1 goal, but OVER bettors are asked to lay -150, with UNDER priced at +130.
These two sides are both more than capable of scoring yet both looked defensively shaky (admittedly to varying degrees) in their respective opening matches.
A high-tempo start from Spain is vital, while Chile can be lethal on the counterattack, making a high-scoring opening 45 minutes look likely.
Netherlands vs. Australia Betting Preview and Pick
By: Hugh Wilson
Goal.com
Netherlands set the World Cup alight last week as they came from behind to destroy title holders Spain in Salvador 5-1, with Louis van Gaal's men looking sublime in front of goal and ready to face Australia in Porto Alegre (12 p.m. ET, ESPN) full of confidence.
The Socceroos had a tough start to the competition, losing to Chile 3-1. Ange Postecoglou's men will once again find themselves as underdogs, with victory a must with Spain lying in wait after their match against Netherlands.
With the result last Friday included, Australia have now gone four matches without a victory, losing three of those games. The LVH SuperBook prices them at 16-to-1 to win.
The Oranje will be looking to put themselves in pole position for top spot in Group B with victory against Australia. Their performance against Spain shocked many, with their defense coming under fire before the tournament, but despite a Xabi Alonso penalty, the back four held strong against a strong Spanish outfit while the forward line did the damage.
With Robin van Persie and Arjen Robben starring for Netherlands up front, the Spain defense couldn't deal with the movement and pace. Netherlands' odds against the Aussies are -575 at the LVH, with the same book pricing the draw at 6-to-1.
With Australia struggling in their opening match, it's tough to see past a Netherlands victory. Laying the 2-goal spread at +115 at the LVH seems tempting. The manner in which van Gaal's men won their first match makes it tough to see them not dominating again, despite Australia showing some potential after going 2-0 down against Chile.
While the bet isn’t available in Las Vegas, with the Oranje scoring for fun and Australia struggling to keep goals out, backing Netherlands to score over 2.5 goals at even money is the play. Australia have conceded an average of 2.7 goals in their last 10 matches, with the likes of Brazil, France, Japan and Ecuador all managing to net over 2.5 goals against them.
Applying the same principles to a bet that is available in Las Vegas, going OVER 3 goals (-120) – even though a 3-0 Dutch victory would result in a push instead of a win – is worth considering.
Croatia vs. Cameroon Betting Preview and Pick
By: Al Hain-Cole
Goal.com
Cameroon and Croatia will be desperate to get off the mark when they come face to face in Manaus for their second World Cup group game on Wednesday (6 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Niko Kovac's men were unfortunate to come away empty-handed from their opening game against Brazil but are -200 favorites at the LVH SuperBook to pick up three points here.
On the other hand, the Indomitable Lions will have been relieved to only go down 1-0 in their match against Mexico and are now longshots at +575 odds to claim a first World Cup win since 2002.
The teams will have been disappointed to see the Mexicans hold out for a draw against group favorites Brazil on Tuesday night and you can get odds of +320 on them also sharing the spoils here.
Vatreni looked on course to pull off a huge opening-day upset when they took an early lead against the hosts, only to eventually fall behind to a penalty decision that their manager described as "ridiculous" and having a goal controversially disallowed.
Conversely, their Wednesday opponents were grateful to see two seemingly legitimate Mexican goals chalked off as they got away with losing by too slender a deficit to truly represent their inferiority throughout the game.
However, with star striker Mario Mandzukic back with the team after suspension, the Croatians should prove less forgiving on Volker Finke's men as they look to record a resounding victory that would put them back in the fold for a place in the last 16.
With talisman Samuel Eto'o now looking unlikely to feature after suffering a recurrence of a long-standing knee injury, it would not be too surprising if Cameroon were on the wrong side of a scoreline similar to their 5-1 friendly defeat against Portugal earlier this year.
With this in mind, laying 1 goal at even-money at William Hill U.S. or -105 at the LVH are well worth backing, as Croatia looks likely to bring their African opponents' World Cup campaign to a premature end by coming out on top by at least two goals.
World Cup Game of the Day: Chile vs. Spain
By Covers.com
Spain vs. Chile (-175, +500, Draw +350)
The defending champions from Spain find themselves in big trouble as they prepare to face rival Chile in the continuation of Group B action on Wednesday in Rio de Janeiro. The Spaniards were flattened 5-1 by the Netherlands in their tournament opener and need to earn at least one point against the Chileans to have any chance of advancing to the elimination round. Chile had a strong start, holding on for a 3-1 victory over a game Australian side.
While it would hardly be precedent-setting for the defending champs to stumble through the tournament - 2006 winner Italy was held without a victory at the 2010 World Cup - that's of little consolation to a Spanish side that knows it faces a daunting task. "If we don't win we go home, and the consequences will be brutal," Spain star Cesc Fabregas told reporters. Chile rode early goals from Alexis Sanchez and Jorge Valdivia to a comfortable win over the Aussies.
WORLD RANKINGS: Spain: No. 1; Chile: No. 14.
INJURY REPORT: Spain: GK David De Gea suffered a strained leg muscle in training and is expected to miss the next 10 days. Chile: None.
WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "This is a must-win game for La Furia Roja and we may see the team return to a more familiar style of tactics against the Chileans. The Spanish opted for a more direct style of play against the Dutch and it hurt them. We're expecting a tight match Rio tomorrow night." Covers Expert Footy Tipster.
ABOUT SPAIN: The Spanish squad is surprisingly upbeat despite losing its opener - though it may have a good reason for that optimism. Spain lost its opening game 1-0 to Switzerland in 2010 before running the table en route to its first World Cup title. "We have strong faith in our football, in our ideas and we really believe we can overcome the situation," said forward Juan Mata. "This group is like a family since I arrived here. I think (our friendship) is vital, (these) familiar feelings which have made the Spain national team into a successful team."
ABOUT CHILE: The Chileans know they need to brace for an unrelenting Spanish attack, but midfielder Arturo Vidal says his team doesn't plan to change its approach. "We're going to push forward looking for the three points," said Vidal, who played nearly an hour against Australia as he works his way back from a knee injury. "We have our style and we'll keep to it ... we'll keep working in the same way and we're not going to change that." Sanchez has been the team's spark plug of late, assisting on six of its last eight goals and scoring one of his own.
TRENDS:
* Spain allowed just two goals in its run to the 2010 championship - a stretch that included a 2-1 win over Chile.
* Chile hasn't defeated Spain in 10 meetings between the teams, losing eight times and drawing twice.
* The Spanish side hasn't lost back-to-back international matches since October 2006.
* Chile has twice faced the defending champion at a World Cup and lost both times; each defeat came at the hands of Brazil.