The Footy Files - World Cup Qualifying Edition
By: Monty Andrews
Covers.com
The busy and exciting world of European club soccer takes a break to make way for World Cup qualifying matches. Monty Andrews takes a look at some of the most important news stories, odds, key injuries, and betting trends to help with your footy wagers.
Match of the Week: Spain v. Italy
Control of Group G will be decided Saturday when Spain and Italy do battle in World Cup opening-round qualification action. The Spanish side, installed as a -118 favorite by Bet365, have been the class of the group to date, with five victories, one draw and a plus-18 goal differential through six games. Italy (+425) isn't far behind, with an identical W-L-T record and a plus-14 goal differential. These teams played to a 1-1 draw in their first qualifying encounter last October, and Italy has a victory and two draws in the last two meetings. The teams are listed at +240 to play to yet another tie.
Slo Ride
England sits atop the Group E standings through six games - but there's a heated competition for second place as Slovenia and Slovakia tangle Friday night at Stadion Antona Malatinskeho. Slovenia (+333) did its part with a 1-0 triumph at home in their first meeting last year, but Slovakia (+100) has been the hotter team since then with three wins and a draw in its previous four international contests. The Slovaks have rebounded nicely after dropping their first two World Cup qualifying matches, and have been winning at both half time and full time in each of their last four qualifying outings.
France Fancying First Place
It's a big weekend in Group A qualifying, with three teams in the hunt for top spot. Two of those units will go head-to-head Thursday evening as France hosts the Netherlands in what has recently been a one-sided rivalry. The French, listed at -188 to prevail on Thursday, have won each of their past three meetings with Holland (+650), including a 1-0 away triumph in the first World Cup qualifying showdown between the teams. With Sweden and France tied on 13 points and the Netherlands sitting third at 10 points, it's a great time for the visitors' first win over the French since 2008.
The Longest of Odds
No one would blame you if you didn't know where the island of Gibraltar is (unless, of course, you live there.) The national soccer team is ranked at the bottom of the FIFA rankings - so don't expect any miracles as the tiny nation located on the southern tip of the Iberian Peninsula faces powerhouse Belgium to kick off the latest round of World Cup UEFA qualifying fixtures. Gibraltar, listed as a whopping +10,000 underdog to pull off the upset of the century, has scored just three goals while surrendering 24 through six qualifying games. By comparison, the Belgians boast a +22 goal differential, with five wins and a draw through six contests.
Player News
Manuel Neuer has declared himself fit to participate this weekend - but Germany head coach Joachim Loew had other ideas, leaving the star goalkeeper off the squad for games against the Czech Republic and Norway. Neuer has worked his way back after fracturing his foot in April but will remain on the sidelines; Germany is listed by Bet365 at -200 to defeat the Czechs.
Eden Hazard hasn't been considered fit enough to play for Chelsea in the English Premier League this season, but he'll be part of Belgium's lineup this weekend for World Cup encounters with Gibraltar and Greece. Chelsea manager Antonio Conte was stunned to learn that Hazard, who is dealing with an ankle injury, was called up to the Belgian roster.
David Villa's wildly successful stint in Major League Soccer has earned the veteran striker a call-up to the Spanish national team for World Cup games against Italy and Liechtenstein. Villa was named MLS MVP last season and has a league-best 19 goals so far in 2017; his return ends a three-year absence from the Spanish side.
England will be without a familiar face as it gears up for weekend World Cup qualifying tilts with Malta and Slovakia. Wayne Rooney announced his retirement from international competition last week after making it known he had been called up by manager Gareth Southgate. Despite Rooney's absence, the English side is still a whopping -2,500 fave to beat Malta on Friday.
Props of the Week
Feel like David Villa is ready to celebrate his return to the Spanish national team in style? Villa is listed by Bet365 as a +225 shot to score in Spain's encounter with the rival Italians; he's installed at +600 to score in either half.
If you fancy a Gareth Bale brace, the price is certainly right as he leads Wales (+125) into what should be a tightly-contested affair with Austria (+260). Bale is a +450 option to score twice, and a +2,000 longshot to record a hat trick.
Liechtenstein (+2,500) has stumbled through qualifying, having scored just once in its first six games. Albania (-900) is by no means a world power, but beat Liechtenstein 2-0 earlier in qualifying and is listed at -200 to record another clean sheet Saturday.
Looking for a nice handicap return for Belgium-Gibraltar? You'll be giving up (or getting) a pile of goals; Belgium -6 is worth -150 compared to Gibraltar +6 at +187, while Belgium -8 is worth +210 (if you think the hosts will really run up the score.)
Betting Trends
If you're having a hard time remembering the last time Bulgaria scored on Sweden, there's a reason for that. The Swedish side has blanked Bulgaria in six straight meetings dating back to 1974; Sweden is +100 on Bet365 to make it seven straight.
Germany has been an unstoppable force on offense of late, scoring at least four goals in each of is previous three World Cup qualifying games. The Germans (-200) and Czechs (+650) are +200 to go over 3.5 total goals on Saturday.
Poland is on a tear in Group E qualifying, winning five consecutive games after earning a draw in its opener. But the away side and group leader is a slight +225 underdog to extend its streak at Denmark (+140), which fell 3-2 in their previous meeting.