Best Value Plays this Bowl Season
LAS VEGAS, NV (The Spread) – The College Bowl season is finally here and I am ready to capitalize on some inflated lines that the linesmakers have installed.
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I am a value player, and I have been breaking down this entire College Bowl schedule, looking for ‘red flags’ that will get more of my attention. These ‘red’flag’ games will be reviewed more in-depth and if the game then meets my criteria and gets upgraded to a solid premium pick, then YOU can get these WINNERS from me, ALLl College Bowl season.
This Saturday, there are 4 games being played. I would like to go over them briefly and talk about the early line movements and how bettors should perceive these line movements. In bowl games, most of the public money will not be wagered until the day before, or the day of the game. So a lot of the early movement is from the sharps trying to get their wager in early and get the best possible value.
Colorado St vs. Washington State—-This line opened up Washington State -4.5 and currently I have not seen much movement as most sportsbooks still have the Cougars favored by 4.5 points. I think this is a good “number” that has been posted. I do feel that most squares will be on Washington State and I won’t be surprised if this game goes up 1-1.5 points to Washington State -6. Honestly, Colorado State has a legitimate offense that can run on the ground and also pass through the air. I like to favor balanced offenses in bowl games, and Washington State is a team that plays better as an underdog. Note that Colorado State HC McElwain was the offensive coordinator under Nick Saban before getting the job here for the Rams. If this line stays at 4.5 or goes up which I suspect, I might take a closer look at Colorado State as an underdog. For all teaser players, Washington State and USC will be a popular teaser and the ‘books’ need one of these teams to lose. Proceed with caution.
USC vs. Fresno—-This line opened up USC -4.5 and I am currently seeing USC a 6.5 -7 point favorite at most sportsbooks. This is a rather large line movement for a bowl game and I am seeing this game as a potential value play on Fresno State with the points. USC is a team that the public loves and they will be betting on them this afternoon. With USC now working on their 3rd head coach this season, there are alot of unknowns for this game on how the players of USC will play the game. Ed Orgeron had the kids believing they were winners, but now I have to suspect that these same kids will not play with the same emotion today. From a value standpoint, Fresno is the play in this game. As far as motivation goes, I will also give Fresno the edge in this game. HC Deruyter said he grew up wanting to be a USC Trojan. I will wait closer to kickoff and see where the line settles. If you can get Fresno +7.5, that sounds very appetizing to me.
Buffalo vs. San Diego State—-Buffalo opened up as a 1.5 point favorite and now I am seeing this game listed as a ‘pick em’ at most sportsbooks. I don’t think that there is a large amount of value with any team this afternoon. I suspect that a lot of folks will be on the San Diego Aztecs though, and again, be patient and get the best line possible, whenever possible. When looking at San Diego State, they could have been 5-5 SU on the season easily, but they got lucky and won 3 games in overtime. Personally, the Aztecs struggle on defense allowing 32 ppg. Buffalo will have the best offensive player (Branden Oliver) and defensive played (Kahlil Mack) on the field. My initial lean is on Buffalo in this game but I will be wait and see where this line settles before making a move. Again, I’d advise to be patient on this one and wait closer to kickoff to see where the line settles.
UL-Lafayette vs. Tulane—–This game opened up a ‘pick-em’ and now has went in Tulane’s favor as they are a 2.5 point favorite at most sportsbooks. This 2.5 point swing has to be for the most part quarterback Terrance Broadway has been downgraded as he is expected to miss this game because of an injury. Broadway is a nice quarterback with a 19TD/ 10 INT mark this season and has also rushed for 8 touchdowns. The backup quarterbacks for Lafayette are all a BIG downgrade, and if you have an opinion on the revenge-minded team of Tulane, then I would advise placing your wager early as possible because I do believe that this line will close Tulane -3.5.
Watch these lines closely this weekend and play accordingly- I know I will be. All of my PREMIUM PICKS for this Saturday will be available Friday night with my patented in-depth analysis. I advise all bettors to hop on board and ride this money train out with me. I will take the guessing work out of the equation for you and your man will be cutting you a check after this weekend!
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