MLB Betting Advice & Strategy
LAS VEGAS, NV (The Spread) – The MLB season is long and grueling, but bettors of all shapes and sizes can improve their chances of winning with a little strategy.
Let’s take a look at a few simple ways to improve your odds this MLB season.
The strategies used during the MLB season aren’t that different from any other sport. One way to help yourself right away is to shop around for the best lines. Different books will have lines set a little different for each game.
Here’s an example. Say you want to bet the Cardinals on the money line. One book might have them at -130, while another at -115. This will give you an edge right away, because finding the best line will keep more money in your pocket. In this example, you just saved $15 by shopping around. Another simple tool is to avoid paying heavy juice frequently. Underdogs win fairly often in MLB, and playing favorites with heavy juice could cost you over the long haul.
The schedule usually offers a ton of games, so be selective. A good rule of thumb is to play no more than three games a day and if you have to go over three, attempt to make five games your max. The more selective you are, the more you keep the edge over the odds makers. The more games you play, you decrease your odds of winning. This will also keep you from depleting your bankroll quickly if you find yourself in a cold streak.
Underdogs do cash, but it can be grueling trying to play the right ones. One tool to help you narrow it down is to look for home underdogs. It can often be a trap when a team comes in as heavy favorites on the road and I find this to be your best chance of cashing in on an underdog. Don’t just look at a starting pitcher’s win/loss record over the whole season, as this can be misleading. I find it more valuable to look at a pitcher’s last three outings at home or on the road depending on where the game is being played. This is important because a pitcher could’ve gotten shelled early in the season and has since turned it on, or vice versa.
Finally, don’t be afraid of taking an underdog on the run line +1.5. This can mean the difference between a win and a loss. I would avoid playing run lines of -160 or higher, but catching a run line of -150 or so can put more money in your pocket in the long run. It can be very tempting to take a dog of +175 or higher, and these plays do win at times, but often the +1.5 will win at a higher rate because of the amount of one-run games in baseball.
Take these strategies into consideration this MLB season, and good luck on the diamond.
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