NFL Divisional Round Betting Trends
LAS VEGAS, NV (The Spread) – Here’s a look at the recent betting trends affecting the eight teams remaining in the 2014 NFL playoff field.
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The NFL Divisional Round of the playoffs start this Saturday with two games and two will take place on Sunday. Last week, the dogs were barking if you had New Orleans, Indianapolis and San Diego. This week, will the dogs bark again or will the chalk pay off big?
One of the ways to bet the playoffs is to use trends, especially the current ones. In other words, trends from 20 years ago don’t really mean much for today unless you look at the perils of perennial playoff losers in Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Kansas City. For whatever reason, they just continue to falter in the playoffs, even with different coaches and players. That may say more about the organization than the players on the field.
Let’s take a look at all four matchups for this weekend and how we can apply some key trends to each, with a selection on the team that has the strongest trends.
Saturday, Jan. 11
New Orleans at Seattle (-8/46.5), 4:35pmET
The Saints are coming off a 26-24 road win over Philadelphia in the Wild Card round. Earlier in this year, they were rocked at CenturyLink Field, 34-7, getting 6.5. The Seahawks were 11-5 against the spread this year and covered five of their last six games.
New Orleans is:
0-6 against the spread in road games off 1 more straight undrers.
1-6 against the spread following a straight up win.
1-6 against the spread the last 7 road games.
5-11 against the spread the last 16 in January.
2-5 against the spread the last 7 vs. Seahawks.
Seattle is:
8-1 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.
19-7 against the spread the last 26 vs. NFC.
Home team is 5-2 against the spread in this series.
Favorite is 5-2 against the spread the last 7 meetings.
5-2 against the spread the last 7 in the playoffs.
4-1 against the spread the last 5 in playoff home games.
4-1 against the spread the last 5 following a straight and against the spread win.
Go with Seattle (-6.5) over New Orleans
Indianapolis at New England (-7/53)
Indianapolis is coming off an amazing comeback win over Kansas City last week, as they were down 38-10 in the third quarter and won 45-44 at home. Andrew Luck threw three interceptions and cam back with four touchdowns and 443 yards. That’s a game that would make Tom Brady proud, though he probably wouldn’t throw the three picks. These teams last played in 2012 when the Patriots won 59-24 from Foxborough on Nov. 18. Here are the key trends for this game.
Indianapolis is:
6-2-1 against the spread the last 9 in series.
Underdog is 4-1-1 against the spread the last 6 in series.
9-0 against the spread the last 7 after allowing 30 points or more the last game.
13-3 against the spread after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.
12-5 against the spread after scoring more than 35 points in their previous game.
4-0 against the spread the last 4 vs. the AFC.
New England is:
1-4 against the spread the last 5 at home in series.
1-4 against the spread the last 5 Saturday games.
0-7 against the spread the last 7 after 2 straight covers as a favorite.
2-9 against the spread the last 11 playoff games.
2-8 against the spread the last 10 playoff home games.
1-7 against the spread after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Go with Indianapolis (+7) over New England
Sunday, Jan. 12
San Francisco at Carolina (pk/40)
San Francisco beat Green Bay last week on the road by three as they’ve now won seven straight games. However, the 49ers lost at home to the Panthers, 10-9 on November 10, giving 6. Carolina has won three straight games coming into the playoffs and is 7-1 straight up at home and 9-6-1 against the spread overall. They have covered four of their last five at home with other fifth game being a push.
San Francisco is:
3-13 against the spread the last 16 vs. Carolina.
0-4 against the spread the last 4 in Carolina.
Carolina is:
6-0-1 against the spread the last 7 at home.
7-2 against the spread the last 9 vs. NFC.
8-3-1 against the spread the last 12 overall.
6-2 against the spread the last 8 in the playoff games.
7-3 against the spread the last 10 following a straight up win.
Go with Carolina (pk) over San Francisco
San Diego at Denver (-9.5/54.5):
These two divisional teams split their season series with San Diego winning the last game on the road on Dec. 12, 27-20, getting 10. San Diego upset Cincinnati on the road last week, 27-10, getting 6.5 as they forced four turnovers and committed zero.
San Diego is:
8-3-1 against the spread the last 12 road games.
6-2-2 against the spread the last 10 in January.
19-8 against the spread where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5.
10-4-2 against the spread the last 16 in this series.
The underdog is 4-1 against the spread the last 5 in this series.
Denver is:
16-30 against the spread after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 2 straight games.
1-5-1 against the spread the last 7 games in January.
2-6 against the spread the last 8 playoff games.
Home team is 0-6-1 against the spread the last 7 in series.
Go with San Diego (+9.5) over Denver
Use these trends wisely this weekend and make sure you study the other factors like injuries and weather before making your selection.
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