Overvalued/Undervalued Teams
LAS VEGAS, NV (The Spread) – Conference play is underway in the world of College Basketball and I would like to examine the team that has offered the best value so far this season in my opinion, and also two teams to monitor as conference play begins that will be offering a great deal of value as well.
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UNLV this year has offered excellent value for bettors. This is a team that lost early in the year to UC- Santa Barbara, 86-65, as a 8.5 point favorite. After this game, UNLV proceeded to go on a 0-2-1 ATS run and fell out of favor with bettors. UNLV lost Anthony Bennett to the NBA and Mike Moser transferred to Oregon and as a result HC Rice added nine newcomers to the team this year. The linesmakers adjusted quickly for UNLV and at the same time UNLV started to develop great chemistry as a team. After the 61-59 loss to Illinois on 11/26, UNLV proceeded to go on a PERFECT 9-0 ATS run. UNLV has upcoming road games on 1/15 @ New Mexico and on 1/18 @ San Diego State. Both New Mexico and San Diego State get a great deal of respect from the linesmakers when they are playing at home and these will be spots where there will be value with UNLV. When UNLV plays New Mexico on 1/15, they will be playing with a full week’s rest and will be under the radar and there should be value with UNLV in these two games as a road dog and I would suggest to make a ‘Run with the Runnin Rebels’.
I would now like to examine a team that has been overvalued so far this season, but entering conference play, this team has talent and should be able to have some ATS success and cash some checks at the ATM. Wright State is a team that is 1-8 ATS on the season (pending game vs. Oakland on 1/02). Wright State returns 4 starters from last year’s team and just recently got another addition to the team in Chrishawn Hopkins who came from Butler. Hopkins has been working his way into the rotation along with Tavares Sledge who has been reinstated by the team. Sledge was the teams 2nd leading rebounder last year and this is added quality depth to the bench. Wright State has by far the deepest bench in the Horizon League and HC Billy Donlon loves to share minutes. Wright State takes pride in their defense as they are holding opponents to 53 ppg in their 7 home games, winning by an average margin of 13.6 points and are undefeated at home with a 7-0 record (pending game vs. Oakland on 1/02). The linesmakers have had to adjust the lines again for Wright State as they were overvalued to begin the season. Now I feel like the lines have been over-compensated and I expect a very profitable ATS run from the Raiders in conference play. This is a team that plays excellent defense and also plays very well at home, both key factors in college basketball. Wright State plays @ Valpo on 1/10 and will be a sizeable dog and one that I will be taking a closer look at. Also, they play at home on 1/17 vs. Wisconsin Green Bay who the linesmakers have respect for. I am expecting a cheap price on this game as well and one that will offer value for the home team of Wright State.
Now I would like to examine a team that will be flying under the radar for the first month of January in conference play. Southeast Missouri State returns 4 starters from last year’s team and have one of the best frontcourts in the conference. SEMO also just got Auburn transfer Josh Langford eligible. Langford is a 6’7″ swingman that made 12 starts for Auburn his freshman year and was the #1 player in Alabama as a senior in high school. Coaches say Langford is the best athlete on the team and I expect him to make a huge impact for this team. Southeast Missouri State also has some solid JUCO transfers that not many know about (except us) and they will take some teams by surprise this year. Jarekious Bradley is a NJCAA All-American that averaged 21 ppg and 8 rpg last year. This year at SEMO, he is leading the team at 20 ppg and 8 ppg, almost identical to his stats last year in JUCO. The kid can play and this SEMO team is the most athletic team in my opinion in the Ohio Valley Conference It will take time for the linesmakers to catch up to this, and I will be looking closer at SEMO for the month of January while there is still value and money to be made. They have a huge home game on 1/09 vs. Belmont and will be a home dog and I will be taking a closer look at this game.
In closing, the college basketball season is a long season and one where there is always going to be value with teams. The key is to try to stay one step ahead of the linesmakers and that is what I will be doing. Be patient and be disciplined. There is no need to force a play if the value is not there. There will always be a better game to wager on once the linesmakers catch up. I am on a RED HOT 15-6 RUN (71%) my last 21 NCAAB plays and 51-33 (61%) my last 84 plays in all sports, providing my clients with consistent profits and a growing bankroll. Hop on board and ride this Money Train out with me the remainder of the college basketball season as I will continue to stay one step ahead of the linesmakers and will be continuing to pound the books.
Out of all sports, I feel that home court in college basketball offers the greatest advantage out of all sports. I say this for many reasons. One is that these college kids are used to shooting on their own goals and practicing on their own court. This is an advantage.
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