Overpriced Top 25 Teams
LAS VEGAS, NV (The Spread) – What teams are repeatedly overpriced and overrated when it comes to the top 25 in college basketball? Let’s take a look.
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1) Arizona Wildcats—-I am not saying this team is overrated, but the lines are becoming more and more inflated. Arizona is extremely talented and will be making a run deep in the NCAA tourney this year, but I would like to look at some possible PLAY AGAINST situations upcoming.
- A.1/26/14 vs. Utah—-This is a Utah team that has a 7and a legit power forward in Loveridge. They also have a JUCO transfer in Delon Wright who might be the most under-rated newcomer in the Pac 12. Utah is ranked 4th in the nation shooting the ball 51% from the floor. They are ranked 16th in the nation in scoring defense at 60 ppg. The Utes are also a good free throw shooting team at 74% which is important in covering a double digit spread. Utah will play a slower paced game and this spread will be inflated for sure. I advise taking a closer look at this game If Utah is +12 points or more.
- B.1/29/14 @ Stanford—–This will be another tough road game for Arizona as this might be their first loss of the season. Arizona has a revenge game on deck vs. California and this is a look-ahead situation. The odds makers will inflate this number also after Arizona looked so good against UCLA on the road. The Bruins just did not play with much focus in that game as Arizona could have lost that game easily if the Bruins played mentally tough for the full 40As of this writing, Stanford has lost 3 of their last 5 games and they will be undervalued by the linesmakers and bettors as well. Stanford is ranked 17th in the nation at shooting the 3 point shot and I LOVE good 3 point shooting teams on their own gym. I also like the size Stanford has with their starting 5. I smell an upset brewing and if Stanford is a +2.5 point dog or more (I suspect the # will be closer to +4), then I advise taking a closer look at Stanford in this game as a live home dog.
2) Colorado Buffaloes—–This is a good Colorado team but I think we should wait and see how they perform after the loss of Spencer Dinwiddie. Dinwiddie was leading the team in points per game, assist per game, and steals per game. At 6’6″, he could handle the ball, make good decisions, and get by bigger defenders. And at 6’6″, he could see over smaller defenders. There is a big drop off in production and efficiency in the other Colorado guards and I do not think the linesmakers can adjust enough for Dinwiddie’s injury. In my opinion, this guy is worth every bit of 8 points to this Colorado team. Let’s take a look at upcoming games for Colorado. I see them possibly going 0-4 ATS in all of these games.
- A.1/16/14 vs. UCLA—–UCLA has the size and depth advantage at the guard position with Anderson bringing the ball down the court. UCLA also has two freshman that are solid guards in Bryce Alford and Zach Levine. I will wait to see the line for this game and how the linesmakers adjust, but IT WILL BE HARD to replace Dinwiddie’s presence immediately.
- B.1/18/14 vs. USC—–USC has been more of the laughing stock of the PAC-12, but they do have some athletic guards that can again take advantage of Dinwiddie’s absence. Oh, and Colorado has back-to-back revenge games on deck @ Arizona and @ Arizona State. PAC 12 double digit dogs have been profitable and I will advise at taking a closer look at this game as well.
C. 1/23/14 @ Arizona—-It will be interesting to see a line for this game and I will give an initial pass. Maybe I will revisit closer to game time, but I think Colorado’s next road game will offer more value.
D. 1/25/14 @ Arizona State—-Only playing on one day’s rest and on back-to-back road games, this will be a tough spot for Colorado going up against one of the Nation’s best guards in Jahii Carson. As of this writing Arizona State is a perfect 11-0 SU at home and this should be a reasonable line. I would not be surprised to see Arizona State as the favorite in this game, but by it being such a tough situation for Colorado, a 6-8 point victory for the home team of Arizona State would not be surprising.
In closing, play accordingly and do not force a play. I am always searching for inflated lines and potential value plays for my clients, and these are two ranked teams that should be overvalued for the remainder of the month as there should be some great PLAY-AGAINST opportunities to strengthen your bankroll.
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