College Week 13, NFL Week 12 Trends
LAS VEGAS, LV (TheSpread) – Trends. Some people swear by them. Some people swear they’re “after the fact meaningless coincidences.” While there are arguments on both sides, let’s take a brief look at some of the games this weekend where trends are prominent on one side and are negative on the other.
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Vanderbilt at Tennessee (-2.5):
Vanderbilt is:
3-1 against the spread last 4 on the road in this series.
17-7 against the spread the last 24 after the first month of the season.
6-2 against the spread the last 8 road games.
Tennessee is:
3-13 against the spread the last 16 at home after 2 or more straight up losses.
4-9 against the spread last 13 home games.
1-6 against the spread last 7 in November.
With the trends, the play screams Vanderbilt. But with Vandy being bowl-eligible and Tennessee needing to win two more games to become bowl eligible, is Tennessee the pick? There will also be 100,000 screaming fans at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville. The trends are too strong here, go with Vanderbilt.
Michigan at Iowa (-6)
Michigan is:
1-11 against the spread off an upset win as a road dog.
1-6 against the spread following an ATS win.
8-21-1 against the spread the last 30 road games.
6-18 against the spread the last 24 games in November.
Iowa is:
14-4 against the spread at home after a win by 21 or more points.
6-2 against the spread last 8 games overall.
5-2 against the spread last 7 conference games
While Michigan is 7-3 and coming off an amazing overtime home win over Northwestern, Iowa has covered six of 10 this year and three of their last four. Combined with the above trends, the strong trend play is Iowa, although you have to lay nearly a touchdown. Go with Iowa.
NFL
Jacksonville at Houston (-10)
Jacksonville is:
1-10 against the spread as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.
3-8 against the spread vs. AFC.
2-6 against the spread last 8 road games.
2-7 against the spread the last 9 on grass.
Houston is:
The favorite is 4-1-1 against the spread the last 6 in this series
7-3-1 against the spread the last 11 at home in this series
21-8 against the spread at home after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games.
Jacksonville did cover this game in November at home, losing by six in overtime. But they have only covered two of 10 games this season. Houston has lost eight straight games so something has to give. They were embarrassed last week at home against Oakland. The Jaguars are just plain embarrassing. Go with Houston.
Good luck with your handicapping this weekend and remember to use the trends as a supplement when you scan the games. Trends aren’t the end all, be all.
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