NBA Second Half: Rest vs. Rust
LAS VEGAS, NV (The Spread) – In this piece we will explore how the 30 NBA Teams have done when playing with several days off and offer a League Wide Database system that pertains to this interesting dynamic.
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In the past we have provided some nice material on the relevance of teams playing with three or more days rest. However, there are far more occurrences of teams playing in the regular season with three or more days rest than their are with four or more days. With that in mind we decided to delve into the database and gear this data more towards the extra days.
Below are some interesting indicators on how NBA teams have done when playing with extended rest of four-plus days the past few years. Such is the case this week, as play resumes after the All-Star Break, with each team having at least five days off prior to their last game. The teams are posted in alphabetical order according to their nickname.
+ Charlotte Bobcats have played over in 5 of the last 6 games with 4 or more days rest.
+ Milwaukee Bucks are 1-3 ATS with 4 days rest with 3 of the 4 games posting over the total.
+ Chicago Bulls have played over 8 straight times with 4 or more days rest.
+ Cleveland Cavaliers are 4-0 to the spread when playing with 4+ days off.
+ Boston Celtics are 2-8 to the spread with 4+ days rest including 0-3 at home.
+ LA .Clippers are a dismal 2-14 ATS with 4+days losing and have lost 16 of 18 straight up.
+ Memphis Grizzlies are 3-1 to the spread with the extended rest of 4 or more days.
+ Atlanta Hawks are 2-6 to the spread with 5 of the last 7 staying under the total.
+ Utah Jazz are 1-6 to the spread with the extra rest and 4-1 to the spread if they are at home.
+ Sacramento is one of the better long term teams with 4+ rest going 20-9 straight up and ATS.
+ New York Knicks have flown over 8 straight times with 4 or more days rest.
+ LA. Lakers are a solid 7-0 straight up and ats with 4 or more days rest.
+ Orlando Magic are 1-4 to the spread with 4+ days rest and 3 of the last 4 have played over.
+ Dallas Mavericks are 7-1 Over at home with 4+ days rest and 1-4 straight up and ats the last 5.
+ Brooklyn Nets have posted over the total in 9 of the last 10 with 4+ days rest
+ Denver Nuggets love the extra rest as they are a tremendous 10-1 straight up and ATS.
+ Indiana Pacers are 4-1 to the spread with 4 or more days rest.
+ New Orleans Pelican are 5-0 to the over and have covered 3 of the last 4 with 4+ days rest.
+ Detroit Pistons are 10-21 to the spread with 4+ rest including a dismal 0-6 ATS at home.
+ Toronto Raptors have stayed under in 8 of the last 8 games with the Extended rest.
+ Houston Rockets are on a 10-1 straight streak when playing with 4 or more days off.
+ Philadelphia Seventy Sixers have seen the favorite go 6-1 to the spread in games where they have 4+ rest.
+ San Antonio Spurs are 1-5 ats and have played over in 4 of the last 5 with the extra days off.
+ Phoenix Suns are 4-1 to the spread and have gone under in 3 of the last 4 with 4+ days off.
+ Oklahoma City is a perfect 6-0 to the spread at home with 4 or more days off.
+ Minnesota Timberwolves are 10-3 to the over long term with 4+ days of rest.
+ Portland Trailblazers are on a tough 1-7 spread run with 4+ days off as rest is rust for them.
+ Golden State Warriors are 1-4 straight up and ats and 9 of 12 have played over with the extra rest.
+ Washington Wizards have played over in 6 of 8 games with 4 or more days off.
Our League wide NBA system dates to 1995. We start the query looking at home teams to see how if they have an advantage with the basic premise of having 4+ days off; is the Rest helpful or does it cause rust.
As it turns out all teams at home the past 19+ years are actually under 50%. If we place that home team on the road in their prior game, we are still going no where fast as they are just a 53% proposition at 151-132 to the spread. Adding parameters as we go, we looked at teams that scored 110 or more on the road in their last game and we finally see things start to take shape. These home teams off high scoring road games, have covered over 72% of the time at 29-11 ATS.
Never satisfied we continue to dig. We insisted this home team did their damage as an underdog and the system kindly climbed the percentage ladder to 77% at 14-4. Right at this point we could warrant a play. However if we add one more little nugget adding this teams opponent was favored in their last game. The system now escalates to 87% at 7-1 straight up and ats for our home team.
Ironically the system has cashed the last 7 times. Tonight’s team in applications is on the Washington Wizards over the Toronto Raptors. Repeating the system, we are playing on any home team since 1995 with 4 or more days rest, that scored 110 or more points as a road dog in their last game and are taking on a team that was favored in their last game .While the sample is small these teams have won by an average 9 points per game. So we will back the Washington Wizards. See the system below
SU: 7-1 87.5%)
ATS: 7-1
Final
Team 103.4
Opp 94.5
Date Link Day Season Team Opp Site Final Rest Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot
Dec 05, 1995 Tue 1995 Jazz Rockets home 100-103 4&2 -4.5 204.5 -3 -7.5 -1.5 -4.5 3.0 L L U False
Mar 13, 1996 Wed 1995 Pelicans Jazz home 91-85 4&0 3.0 204.5 6 9.0 -28.5 -9.8 -18.8 W W U False
Feb 10, 1998 Tue 1997 Trailblazers Lakers home 117-105 5&5 4.5 200.5 12 16.5 21.5 19.0 2.5 W W O False
Feb 22, 2005 Tue 2004 Bulls Heat home 105-101 5&5 4.0 200.0 4 8.0 6.0 7.0 -1.0 W W O 1
Feb 17, 2009 Tue 2008 Knicks Spurs home 112-107 5&5 4.0 208.0 5 9.0 11.0 10.0 1.0 W W O 1
Feb 17, 2009 Tue 2008 Pacers Seventysixers home 100-91 5&5 -2.5 211.0 9 6.5 -20.0 -6.8 -13.2 W W U 0
Jun 04, 2009 Thu 2008 Lakers Magic home 100-75 5&4 -6.0 205.5 25 19.0 -30.5 -5.8 -24.8 W W U 0
Jun 03, 2010 recap Thu 2009 Lakers Celtics home 102-89 4&5 -5.5 192.0 13 7.5 -1.0 3.2 -4.2 W W U 0
Feb 18, 2014 recap Tue 2013 Wizards Raptors home 5&5
In Closing we hope you enjoyed this piece and will put the data to good use in the second half of the season. Our NBA has been solid all year and Is Ranked at or near the Top of Several Popular Leader boards. NCAAB Has been hot as well, we are using cutting edge systems, simulations and Industry leading data which cant be found any where else. You can get more free selections from Robs page daily. Free selections and previews that have been a long term success. Wishing all of you an enjoyable and Profitable Second half in the NBA.
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