NFL Bye Week Strategy
We’re near the end of the bye weeks in the NFL. As a bettor, it’s important to know the history of how some teams play coming off byes. Some of these trends are not pertinent, especially if there is a coaching change.
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For those bettors who are looking for a hook or different angle, taking a look at teams coming off a bye is at least something to take notice of. For example, there are two teams coming off bye this week: Dallas and St. Louis.
Dallas is 18-11 ATS (18-11 SU) coming off a bye the last 29, while St. Louis is 13-12 against the spread (12-12-1 SU). Most years, teams generally do well coming off byes, If you go back to 2007-10, teams were 61-44-5 against the spread and 65-54-1 straight up.
After doing a little research for this season, teams coming off a bye are just 11-15 ATS and 13-13 SU. What does that mean? Maybe this year is a fluke.
It’s a strange coincidence because a bye week should help teams in the middle of the season. The bye week gives a coach an extra week of preparation and his team has the ability to recover from minor injuries.
Andy Reid was the perfect example of a coach who was great after byes in Philadelphia. He was 13-1 SU with Philadelphia until last week’s loss at Denver. Not only did he lose that game, but Kansas City couldn’t cover the 7.5, losing 27-17.
Nothing is concrete with these trends and when you look at an undefeated Kansas City team playing a soft schedule, this was a very tough test going to Denver. That’s a Denver team that already had one loss and was more desperate to win this to capture the AFC West and eventually gain home field advantage in the AFC. They certainly were close to at least covering this game and playing the dog there wasn’t a bad move. It would have been a better move if the Chiefs were playing the Chargers.
Another factor is considering a team’s condition going into a bye. If a team is 2-5 coming off three straight losses going into the bye week, you have to wonder if a week off is enough to change things around. What about a team that’s 6-1 going into the bye and has won four straight? Will the bye hinder their progress and slow their momentum down.
Teams coming off a bye usually have an edge over a team that is well-rested. This year may be anomaly when it comes to stats for teams coming off a bye. But remember when betting teams this week and next week, just to consider those playing against teams with extra rest and those who are coming off a bye.
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