With the MLB All-Star Game behind us and the break nearly over, let’s take a look towards baseball’s second half. The Dodgers are the current favorites to win the National League Pennant. That said, are they the best bet to represent the National League in the World Series?
National League Pennant Odds
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Dodgers are +175 to win the National League Pennant, followed by the Phillies at +210. The Braves, meanwhile, are +450 to win the NL Pennant and then the odds drop significantly, starting with the Brewers at +1200.
Continuing with the current odds, the Padres are +2000, the Diamondbacks are +2500 and the Cardinals at +3000 to win the National League Pennant. The Mets also have +3000, followed by the Cubs and Giants at +6000, respectively.
Finally, the Reds are +10000, followed the Pirates are +12000. The Marlins, Nationals and Rockies are all +20000, respectively to win this year’s NL pennant.
National League Pennant Predictions
OPTION 1: Philadelphia Phillies (+210)
If I’m going to take one of the favorites, I like the Phillies more than the Dodgers. For starters, Philadelphia has the best winning percentage in baseball at the MLB All-Star break. They also have the best run differential in baseball at +110, indicating that their 62-34 record is no fluke.
I’m a big believer in pitching and the Phillies have the second lowest ERA in the National League at 3.42, behind the Braves’ 3.40 ERA. Their 3.54 FIP and 3.48 xFIP also indicate that, again, their performance in the first half is no fluke. The Phillies also have a +112 wRC+ at the break, which puts them behind only the Dodgers (118) and Mets (114) in the National League.
I do have one small concern with Philadelphia, which is the club’s defense. Overall, they have a defensive runs saved total of 14, which ranks 14th in baseball. That’s fine, but their -4 at catcher and -6 at shortstop is concerning given how important the middle of the field is for team’s defensively. Still, this is a minor concern overall.
OPTION 2: Atlanta Braves (+450)
Thanks to the Phillies’ hot start, the Braves are seemingly flying under the radar. Atlanta is 8.5 games back of Philadelphia in the NL East, so it’ll be challenging for the Braves to win the division. That said, they’re four games up on the Cardinals in the NL Wild Card standings and even if they have to play in the wild card round, they’re going to be a handful for any opponent.
As noted above in the write up on the Phillies, the Braves have the lowest team ERA in the National League. The starting rotation has overcome injuries and it’s likely that the front office will do something to ensure the starting pitching is bolstered at the deadline.
Surprisingly, the issue for the Braves has been their offense. They’re currently 10th in the National League in wRC+ at 97, which is three percentage points lower than the MLB average. Still, with a lineup that boasts Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna and Austin Riley, the offense is still loaded for bear. Ronald Acuna Jr. (ACL tear) is out for the season but the last time he suffered a season-ending injury during the year, the Braves’ front office added three bats at the deadline and wound up winning the World Series.
OPTION 3: St. Louis Cardinals (+3000)
Do I believe that the Cardinals will win the National League Pennant? No. But I wasn’t going to list the Dodgers, Phillies and Braves as my options seeing as how anyone could accomplish that feat. Thus, let me make a case for a long-shot.
Sonny Gray has been terrific as St. Louis’ No. 1 pitcher and Kyle Gibson has been a pleasant surprise as well. Miles Mikolas and Lance Lynn have been disappointments, but the front office figures to add pitching help at the deadline. If they can add someone like Erick Fedde, then one could do worse with a Gray-Gibson-Fedde trio in a postseason series.
The bullpen is also one of the best in baseball, led by All-Star closer Ryan Helsley. JoJo Romero, Andrew Kittredge and at times, Matthew Liberatore, have also been outstanding. The St. Louis front office figures to add bullpen help at the deadline as well.
What about the offense?
First, the bad. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are having below-average seasons, at least based on their career numbers and their expectations. Arenado’s lack of power is particularly concerning, although he looked to be turning things around before the All-Star break.
The rest of the offense has been solid. Even though he missed time with a forearm fracture, Willson Contreras owns a 161 wRC+ and Alec Burleson (128 wRC+) has been a bit of a revelation for the team. Brendan Donovan (117 wRC+) has also had a solid bounce back season after injuries hampered his 2023 season and Masyn Winn should be in the NL Rookie of the Year conversation.
Again, do I think the Cardinals win the NL Pennant this season? No, but they’re an intriguing long-shot play.
