The Houston Astros remain in Cincinnati to face the Reds at 1:10 PM ET on Thursday afternoon on ESPN+. It’s the final game of a 3-game set. Keep reading for our Astros vs. Reds betting prediction.
Can the Reds cover the run line as home underdogs?
Projected starting pitchers: Hunter Brown (HOU) vs. Rhett Lowder (CIN)
The Houston Astros are 75-64 straight up this year. Houston is 6-4 straight up in their last 10 games. The Astros are 71-68 ATS this season.
The Cincinnati Reds are 67-73 straight up this year. Cincinnati is 4-6 straight up in their last 10 games. The Reds are 78-62 ATS this season.
Astros vs. Reds Game Matchup and Betting Odds
965 Houston Astros (-150) at 966 Cincinnati Reds (+125); o/u 9.5
1:10 PM ET, Thursday, September 5, 2024
Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH
TV: ESPN+
Astros vs. Reds Public Betting Information
Our MLB Public Betting Information page indicates that 67% of public bettors are currently backing the Astros money line. Please note that these numbers are subject to change all the way up to game time, so be sure to check the link to ensure that you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Houston Astros DFS Spin
Astros right fielder Ben Gamel reached base twice in his team’s 12-5 loss to the Reds on Wednesday night. In that game, the left-handed hitter from Neptune Beach, FL went 1 for 3 with an RBI, a walk, and a run scored. For the season, Gamel is batting .277 with 1 home run, 4 RBIs, and a .767 OPS across 48 plate appearances. Ben Gamel is hitting .308 with an OPS of .822 over the past 15 days, making him an intriguing DFS option on Thursday afternoon.
Cincinnati Reds DFS Spin
Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz had a big day at the plate in his club’s 12-5 win over the Astros on Wednesday. Hitting out of the #2 spot in the lineup, the 22-year-old switch hitter went 3 for 4 with 2 doubles, 2 RBIs, 3 runs scored, and a stolen base. Across 602 plate appearances this year, De La Cruz is batting .265 with 22 homers, 63 RBIs, 62 stolen bases, and an OPS of .828. Elly De La Cruz is hitting .293 with an OPS of .800 over the past 15 days. That fact makes the Reds shortstop worth a look in most DFS formats.
Astros vs. Reds MLB Betting Trends
Houston is 19-20 ATS in interleague games this season.
Houston is 47-56 ATS as a favorite this season.
Cincinnati is 48-28 ATS as an underdog this season.
Cincinnati is 67-52 ATS when playing on no rest this season.
Astros vs. Reds Betting Prediction
The Reds have the best run-line record in baseball this year at 78-62. The key to that is sprinkling in close losses with outright wins. To wit, Cincinnati has 8 one-run losses since the All-Star break. Since most of the time the run line is +1.5, that means the Reds are covering those games. A few numbers illustrate just how great Cincy has been on the run line this year.
The Reds are 72-60 ATS when playing an opponent on equal rest and 54-43 ATS in non-division games this year. What’s more, Cincinnati is 17-11 ATS as a home underdog and 34-32 ATS after a win this season. I think the Reds either complete the three-game sweep over the Astros or come very close to doing so on Thursday. Cincinnati on the run line is the pick.
