Orioles vs. Rays Prediction
Will the slumping Orioles pull off the upset tonight when they visit the Rays at 7:10PM ET?
According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Rays are -130 money line favorites over the Orioles, who have odds of +110 to pull off the upset tonight in Tampa. With Ubaldo Jimenez set to face Jake Odorizzi in the pitching matchup, the over/under is sitting at 7.5 runs.
Bet Tonight’s Orioles vs. Rays Game
Jimenez is off to an excellent start this season. His 4.24 walk rate is concerning but his 10.59 strikeout rate is healthy and his 3.67 FIP and 2.95 xFIP are better than his 3.71 ERA, which is always a good sign for a pitcher’s projection. He’s also been excellent over the last three years against Tampa Bay, posting a 0.68 ERA over 13.1 innings of work. He’s 1-0 against the Rays over the last three years, with a 1.69 ERA over 5.1 innings.
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Odorizzi has been equally as impressive, posting a 3.97 ERA, 2.72 FIP and 3.61 xFIP over 22.2 innings of work. He’s allowed 10 earned runs on 25 hits and both his 9.13 strikeout and 1.59 walk rate are healthy. He’s been stellar at home over the last three seasons as well, posting a 2.89 ERA over 196.1 innings of work. The only blip for Odorizzi is that he has not pitched well versus the Orioles, posting a 4.79 ERA over three seasons and 41.1 innings of work versus Baltimore.
OUR PREDICTION: The under is 4-0 in Jimenez’s last four road starts and is 6-0 in his last six starts overall. The under is also 4-0 in his last four starts versus fellow American League East teams and is 39-19-2 in the last 60 meetings between these two teams in Tampa Bay. The under is also 26-6 in Ron Kulpa’s last 32 games behind home plate in Baltimore and 13-4 in his last 17 games behind home plate involving the Rays. With the way both of these pitchers are throwing right now, there shouldn’t be a ton of runs scored this evening.
TUESDAY MLB FREE PREDICTION: ORIOLES/RAYS UNDER 7.5
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