Brewers vs. Phillies Prediction
With Corbin Burnes set to take the mound on Thursday for the visitors, are the Brewers the smart play as a moneyline underdog when they take on the Phillies at 12:35 p.m. ET?
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
955 Milwaukee Brewers (+100) at 956 Philadelphia Phillies (-120); o/u 9
12:35 p.m. ET, Thursday, July 20, 2023
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Brewers vs. Phillies Public Betting Information
As of this writing, our MLB Public Betting Page shows that 63% of bets are on the Phillies’ moneyline. That said, this page is updated frequently so make sure that you click on the link provided so that you’re getting the most updated information.
Milwaukee Brewers DFS SPIN
Devin Williams worked out of trouble on Wednesday to slam to door on his 24th save in a 5-3 Brewers win over the Phillies. Williams allowed two singles in the ninth inning and had runners on the corners with one out and the winning run at the plate, but Bryson Stott go thrown out stealing and then Williams struck out Alec Bohm to end the game. The 24 saves put Williams sixth in all of baseball, and he now has just a 1.69 ERA. However, he is missing far fewer bats than he did last year with his lowest strikeout rate since his rookie season. The 2.96 xFIP and 3.1 SIERA suggest that there might be some regression coming.
Philadelphia Phillies DFS SPIN
Nick Castellanos homered on Wednesday in the Phillies’ loss to the Brewers. The big fly was Castellanos’ 14th of the season and was his only hit of the night. The right fielder finished the night 1-for-4 with one RBI and one run scored. On the season, he’s now slashing .290/.331/.480 and has cooled off after a strong June. Coming into tonight, Castellanos was hitting just .185/.200/.389 through 13 games in July. While the batting average remains useful for fantasy and the six stolen bases on the season are a nice plus, Castellanos may never duplicate the power production we saw in 2021.
Brewers vs. Phillies MLB Betting Trends
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee’s last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee’s last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Brewers vs. Phillies MLB BETTING PREDICTION
It’s tempting to take the Brewers as an underdog with Burnes on the mound but the better bet in my eyes is the under. Taijuan Walker is 11-3 with a 4.00 ERA and has won seven consecutive starts. Against the Padres last Saturday, he allowed four hits and two runs in five innings. Burnes, meanwhile, is 8-5 on the year, with a 3.73 ERA and has posted a 1.08 ERA in three career games (one start) versus Philadelphia.
MLB BETTING PREDICTION: BREWERS/PHILLIES UNDER 9