Brewers vs. Cubs Pick
Are the Milwaukee Brewers going to slow down the host Chicago Cubs Friday night? First pitch is at 8:05PM EST.
Oddsmakers at sports book Bovada.lv have set the Cubs as a -123 favorite to win on the moneyline. The Brewers are a +103 underdog and the over-under is 8.
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Jimmy Nelson (11-6, 3.59 ERA) will get the start for the Brewers, while the Cubs turn to John Lackey (11-10, 4.74). Nelson enters with a 1.25 WHIP and 192 strikeouts in 170 1/3 innings. He was spectacular in his last start, throwing seven shutout innings with three hits allowed along with 11 strikeouts and three walks in a 1-0 home win over the Nationals. He has a 4.16 ERA in 13 road starts. Lackey has a 1.30 WHIP with 131 strikeouts over 148 innings. He threw seven shutout innings in a 2-0 home win over the Braves his last start, allowing three hits while striking out five and walking none. Chicago has won nine of his last 10 starts. Lackey carries a 4.02 ERA in 12 home starts.
Milwaukee is 72-68 on the season and 33-36 on the road, while the Cubs are 77-63 and 40-29 at home. Chicago has won six of the last 10 meetings and the total has gone under in the last three games after going over in the previous seven.
The Brewers were swept in a three-game series at the Reds, dropping the finale 7-1 on Wednesday. Neil Walker hit a solo home run for the lone score. Matt Garza gave up five earned runs in 2 2/3 innings to take the loss. The Cubs rolled to an 8-1 win at the Pirates Thursday to salvage a split in the four-game series. Jon Lester threw six innings of one-run ball to get the win. Ian Happ was 3-for-5 with two doubles and two runs. Anthony Rizzo was 2-for-2 with two walks, two runs and two RBIs. Albert Almora contributed a two-run homer. Jason Heyward went 2-for-4 with a double, a run and an RBI.
If the Brewers are going to entertain any ideas of winning the NL Central, they basically must sweep this three-game series. Nelson is in the midst of a fantastic season and is capable of putting Milwaukee on his back, such as what he did in his last start. Lackey is having a great stretch, but has gotten lucky a couple times to not lose as the Cubs have piled up some big offensive numbers to support him. We’ll go with the more-rested Brewers as a small underdog.
MLB DAILY PREDICTION: MILWAUKEE BREWERS +103