Mariners Win Total Prediction
After making a somewhat surprising push toward a playoff spot in 2016, can the Seattle Mariners finish the job in 2017?
According to oddsmakers at BetDSI, the Mariners over/under for wins in 2017 has been set at 85.5. The over carries a money line of -130 while the under is set at +100. Their odds to win the 2017 World Series are listed at 30/1 currently, while their odds to win the ALCS are at 12/1.
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The Mariners fought their way to an 86-76 record in 2016, finishing 9 games out in the AL West and just 3 games out of the Wild Card race. Scott Servais was in his first season as manager in 2016 and is back for this year. Seattle has now won at least 86 games in two of their last three seasons.
Seattle has always been known for their ace Felix Hernandez and this year he seems to have an improved rotation around him. Felix pitched in 25 games last season, going 11-8 with a 3.82 ERA and 122 strikeouts. The team is hoping he will remain healthy and get back to his 2014 form, when he had a 2.14 ERA with 248 strikeouts. Hisashi Iwakuma led the team in wins in 2016 with 16, but he had a 4.12 ERA with only 147 strikeouts in 199 innings. In the offseason, the team added Yovani Gallardo and Drew Smyly. Gallardo struggled last season in Baltimore, but was 13-11 in Texas in 2015 with a 3.42 ERA. Smyly also struggled in 2016, but had a 3.11 ERA in 2015 and 3.24 ERA in 2014. Steve Cishek was the saves leader in 2016 with 25 and he put up a 2.81 ERA. Edwin Diaz had 18 saves with a 2.79 ERA.
At the plate, Seattle had 768 runs in 2016. That actually ranked third in the AL. The 1-2 punch of Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano combined for 82 HR with 208 RBI. Both also hit over .285 and each carried a WAR of 5.0 or greater. Kyle Seager also had a great year, hitting .278 with 30 HR and 99 RBI. The team also added Jarrod Dyson in the offseason. He hit .278 in 2016 with the Royals while racking up 30 stolen bases and scoring 46 runs in 107 games. Dyson should give a boost on the base paths, as the Mariners had only 56 stolen bases last year.
I like the build of this roster. Cruz and Cano are a great duo for power and Seager proved to benefit off batting near them. Adding Dyson also gives the team a little more speed. The pitching rotation also looks improved. Gallardo and Smyly should see some improved numbers this season, especially with some run support in Smyly’s case. I also like the bullpen as Cishek and Diaz both can handle pressure spots.
2017 MLB SEASON WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: SEATTLE MARINERS OVER 85.5