Phillies Win Total Prediction
Can the Philadelphia Phillies inch closer to the .500 mark in the 2017 season? Here’s our preview of the team’s season.
According to oddsmakers at BetDSI, the Phillies over/under for wins in 2017 has been set at 73.5. The over and under each have odds of -115. Their odds to win the 2017 World Series are listed at 125/1 currently, while their odds to win the NLCS are at 60/1.
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The Phillies are coming off a 71-91 record in 2016 and they finished 24 games out of first in the NL East. It marked their fourth straight season with 73 wins or less. Pete Mackanin returns as manager after taking over in the middle of the 2015 season. He is 108-142 while leading this roster.
Philadelphia had one of the least-productive lineups in 2017. The Phillies amassed just 610 runs last season, which ranked dead-last in the MLB by 39 runs. Philadelphia has a young roster once again with Maikel Franco leading the team with 25 HR and 88 RBI last season, but he hit just .255. Freddy Galvis had 20 HR and 67 RBI, but he hit just .241. Odubel Herrera hit .286 with 49 RBI and 25 stolen bases, while Cesar Hernandez hit .294 with 39 RBI. The team added veteran Howie Kendrick in the offseason, but he had just 40 RBI and hit only .255 for the Dodgers last season.
Philadelphia also didn’t have much of a pitching staff this season. The Phillies allowed 796 run in 2016, giving them the worst run differential in baseball at -186. Jerad Eickhoff and Jeremy Hellickson each had double-digit wins with sub-4.00 ERA’s, so the team does have a foundation in the rotation. Vince Velasquez also showed some promise in his first full year as a starter, going 8-6 with a 4.12 ERA and 152 strikeouts. The team added Clay Buchholz in the offseason, hoping they can get him back to form. He was just 8-10 last season with a 4.78 ERA, but in 2015 he posted a 3.26 ERA. In the bullpen, Jeanmar Gomez racked up 37 saves in 2016, but he had a 4.85 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Hector Neris was a strong middle reliever, racking up 28 holds with a 2.58 ERA and 102 strikeouts in 80.1 innings of work. The Phillies also added Joaquin Benoit in the offseason. He had a 2.81 ERA in 2016, including a 0.38 ERA in 25 appearances with the Blue Jays to end last season.
The Phillies have a lot of youth and unproven talent that it is counting on this season, but there is something about this team I like. Their young hitters should take a step forward this year and their young arms should do the same. I also like the bullpen for Philadelphia, as Neris and Benoit should be able to hold leads to set up Gomez. A good bullpen can make up for short comings elsewhere. I like the Phillies to get to 74 wins or more with that makeup.
2017 MLB SEASON WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES OVER 73.5