Will the Orioles and Brewers pull off upsets against their respective opponents? Will the Guardians stay hot with a win over the Astros? Check out our Friday MLB Best Bets.
Thursday MLB Best Bets Recap
Following back-to-back 3-0 days, I took a step back with my Thursday MLB Best Bets. I took the Brewers on the moneyline at -120 and while it was slow early, Milwaukee’s offense picked it up mid-game. The Brew Crew finished with 14 hits in their 5-2 win over the Pirates, cashing our first play.
Our second play was the Cardinals-Rockies under 10.5 and it was doomed from the start. Paul Goldschmidt and Lars Nootbaar hit back-to-back home runs for the Cardinals in the first inning. The over cashed by the fifth, in what turned into a traditional “Coors Field Game.” I knew it was a risk taking the under in Denver, but I don’t regret the play. Both starters, who were in good form entering the game, were victimized by horrible defense in the outfield. Either way, it was a dud play.
You could tell I was feeling bold from the previous two days because I tempted fate again with my last selection of the night. I backed the Padres at +105 in L.A. and the Dodgers hammered their NL West rivals, 7-2.
Let’s try to get back on track tonight.
Friday MLB Best Bets: Cleveland Guardians -125
With so much attention paid to the Yankees, Orioles and Astros, the Guardians continue to fly under the radar in the American League. That said, they’re one game behind New York for the best record in the AL and they’ve won seven out of their last 10 games overall. They’ve also been one of the best home teams in baseball this season, posting a 50-28 record. A $100.00 bettor that played the Guardians in every game at Progressive Field this season would be up $1,697.00 on the year.
As far as tonight is concerned, do the Guardians have a decided edge over the Astros? Not really. Joey Cantillo is 3-2 with a 4.15 ERA over his last five starts, while Ronel Blanco is 3-2 with a 3.08 ERA over his last five outings. That said, Houston is 5-5 over its last 10 games and has dropped three out of four entering play tonight. This is simply a principle play based on what Cleveland has been all season (i.e. terrific).
Friday MLB Best Bets: Milwaukee Brewers -105
I know the Mets are the talk of baseball right now because they’ve become an antihero. Two years ago, they tried to steamroll everyone by loading their roster with high-priced veteran talent. After ditching that approach, they realized they’re a better overall team this season and now everyone is rooting for the Mets as some sort of underdog. Let’s give them credit for realizing the error of their ways, but let’s stop pretending they’re invincible.
The Brewers have owned the Mets, winning nine out of the last 10 meetings. They swept the Mets at Citi Field in the opening weekend of the season and tonight will go for their sixth consecutive victory versus New York. They do face a tough task against Sean Manaea, who is 5-0 with a 2.36 ERA over his last five starts. That said, Manaea faced the Brewers a year ago as a member of the Giants, who lit him up for four runs on six hits over 5.0 innings.
How much does that start factor into tonight’s game? Maybe not at all, but I know the Brewers are underrated tonight as a home dog.
Friday MLB Best Bets: Baltimore Orioles +135
Just like the Brewers have owned the Mets, the Orioles have taken the Twins behind the woodshed. Baltimore is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams, which includes an early-season sweep of the Twins at Oriole Park. In fact, you’d have to go back to July 1 of 2023 for the last time the Twins beat the Orioles. That’s a span of seven games.
Granted, Cade Povich has struggled for the Orioles of late. He’s 1-4 with a 4.62 ERA over his last five starts. That said, he showed improvement over his last two starts. While the Orioles lost both games, Povich held the red-hot Tigers to two runs on two hits with eight strikeouts on September 15. He faced that same Detroit club on September 21 and again held the Tigers to two runs on two hits with seven strikeouts.
Meanwhile, the Twins will start Pablo Lopez tonight. He’s 3-2 with a 3.41 ERA over his last five starts, but trouble could be brewing. He’s averaging 6 1/3 innings per start over his last five outings, but he lasted just four innings against the Red Sox on September 22 (his last start). In that game, he coughed up seven earned runs on nine hits, which included two home runs. This Baltimore lineup is not one to mess with when you’re a struggling opposing pitcher.
