Mets at Brewers Spread, Odds, Public Betting Trends & Matchup

Rookie Phenom

The New York Mets probably would prefer not to have to dip into the minor leagues to find a starter for a critical September game against a fellow playoff contender.

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Calling up their top pitching prospect should make them a bit less apprehensive.

Jonathon Niese, a 21-year-old left-hander, will make his major league debut Tuesday night at Miller Park as New York tries to build off its series-opening win against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Oddsmakers from SBG Global have made Milwaukee -130 money line favorites (MLB Odds) for tonight’s game, the over/under has been set at 9.5 total runs (Matchup). Current public betting information shows that 68% of bets for this game have been placed on Milwaukee -130 (View MLB Bet Percentages).

The Mets (77-61) have one of the best rotations in the National League, but it looked like their starting five would take a hit last week when John Maine went on the disabled list with a bone spur in his pitching shoulder.

Maine has had a solid season (10-8, 4.18 ERA) in the rotation, but on Tuesday New York will turn to a pitcher with a significantly higher upside. Niese was one of the most sought-after prospects in baseball near July’s non-waiver trading deadline, but the Mets refused to part with the young southpaw in a deal to strengthen its lineup or its shaky bullpen.

A seventh-round pick in 2005, Niese jumped from Double-A to Triple-A earlier this season, and he pitched well in New Orleans, going 5-1 with a 3.40 ERA. Now, he’ll take the mound for the Mets, who lead Philadelphia by two games in the NL East.

"We think very highly of Jonathan Niese,” vice president for development Tony Bernazard said Sunday. "He’s a 21-year-old that we expect to be an important member of this organization.

"You have to perform at some point, and it happens to be Tuesday against a very good team. Let’s see what he has. We’ll find out a lot about where we’re at with him in the next month.”

The Mets are off to a fine start in September after taking the opener from wild card-leading Milwaukee (80-57) on Monday, 4-2.

New York’s bullpen, missing closer Billy Wagner, has been maligned for its struggles all season, particularly in terms of costing ace Johan Santana wins. The Mets trailed 2-1 when Santana exited Monday, but they took advantage of the Brewers’ relievers after starter Ben Sheets left with tightness in his left groin. They scored once in the seventh and three times in the eighth – including a two-run Carlos Delgado homer off of Eric Gagne – to seize the victory.

Delgado has more homers (20) and RBIs (60) than anyone in the NL since June 27.

"Carlos has been amazing,” manager Jerry Manuel said. "If he’s swinging it well, he seems to come up at the right time and put a good swing on it. He’s been outstanding.”

While the Brewers spent Sunday worrying about CC Sabathia being denied what they perceived as a no-hitter in Pittsburgh, they face a far bigger concern after Sheets – who has a history of injuries – exited what was a promising outing on Monday.

Any injury to Sheets will put more pressure on Manny Parra (10-6, 4.00). Parra, a rookie left-hander, began the season 8-2, but he’s just 2-4 with a 4.44 ERA since the All-Star break.

He was outstanding in his latest start, but Milwaukee’s bullpen couldn’t hold a lead for him. Parra gave up a run over six innings Wednesday at St. Louis, striking out seven, and left with a 3-1 lead. But the Brewers allowed the Cardinals to score four times in the eighth and Parra was left without a decision in the 5-3 loss.

"Manny pitched great," manager Ned Yost told the team’s official Web site. "He was on the attack and right after them."

Parra gave up three runs in four innings in a 4-2 loss at Shea Stadium on April 11, his only start against the Mets.

New York has won 10 of 13 on the road.

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