Mets vs. Cubs Predictions
The surging New York Mets visit the reeling Chicago Cubs in what should be an intriguing Sunday afternoon game at Wrigley Field.
Here’s a complete preview, including early MLB picks.
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs
Sunday, July 17, 2022 – 02:20 PM EDT at Wrigley Field
What to Expect From These Teams
Don’t look now but it’s the middle of July and the Mets are still leading the NL East and they’re just three games behind the Dodgers for the best record in the league as I write this. An offense led by Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil and decent pitching despite missing aces Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom for most of the year has New York fans dreaming of October. Of course, there’s a long way to go but the Mets deserve this.
The Mets have to win games like Sunday’s visit to the Cubs in order to keep the Braves behind them in the standings. These are not the 2016 Cubs that broke their curse and won the World Series, gone are Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Lester and most of their stars from those days and their rebuilding has been rough, to say the least.
Still, the Mets can’t overlook them on Sunday, the Cubbies will have the support of their faithful fans at the friendly confines of Wrigley Field and there’s still some talent on this team. The Mets will turn to left-hander David Peterson (5-2, 3.48 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) for this game while the Cubs will give the ball to Adrian Sampson (0-1, 3.33 ERA, 1.11 WHIP).
Peterson vs. Sampson
As mentioned above, the Mets are going with David Peterson (4.00 FIP), while the Cubs respond with Adrian Sampson (3.48 FIP). The Mets are 9-3 in Peterson’s 12 starts, giving bettors 6.6 units of profit. The Cubs, on the other hand, are up 1.4 units on a 2-2 record in Sampson’s four starts.
David Peterson allowed two earned runs on two hits (one home run) with nine strikeouts and three walks over 5 1/3 innings in a 4-1 road loss against the Braves on Sunday. Peterson is 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 9 1/3 innings over two career starts against the Cubs and he has a 2.84 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in eight road games (six starts)this season.
Adrian Sampsongave up three earned runs on six hits (one home run) with three strikeouts and two walks over 5 1/3 innings in a 4-2 home loss against the Orioles on Tuesday. This will be Sampson’s first career appearance against the Mets. The right-hander is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in four games (two starts) at Wrigley Field this season.
How to Bet This Game
At press time we don’t have betting odds for this game since this is an early look at it but over at FiveThirtyEight, they already have the Mets at -133 based on our calculations (they suggest the Mets will win this game 57 percent of the time). There might be value on themoneyline if the best sportsbooks open the Mets at between -125 and -140 but the Under might be the way to go.
Sunday’s weather report calls for mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the high-70s at game time with 2 percent precipitation and the 8.9 mph winds are expected to come blowing in to third base and home plate.
New York’s projected lineup has just three batters with a Weighted on-Base Average (wOBA) above .340 and two batters with Isolated Power (ISO) above .185 while Chicago’s projected lineup has six batters with a strikeout rate above 21 percent, just two batters with a Weighted on-Base Average (wOBA) above .340 and two batters with Isolated Power (ISO) above .185
And in case Sampson has a short outing, the Cubs have an excellent bullpen. At press time, theirrelieves rank 10th in Win Probability Added (WPA) from the bullpen at 1.95.Take the Under on Sunday afternoon!
MLB Pick: Under (TBD) at BetOnline