Monday MLB Value Plays & Trends
(The Spread) – If you’re looking for value in today’s baseball lines, there are a couple of games that should fall under the total if recent history stays true.
Tampa Bay Rays (+104) vs. Boston Red Sox (-110), 11:05AM ET
At –110, there’s some value in the Red Sox. The Rays are just 35-74 in their last 109 games in Boston and 7-16 in James Shields’ last 23 starts versus the Red Sox. Tampa Bay is also 1-9 in Shields’ last 10 road starts against the Red Sox, who have now won three straight after starting the season 1-5.
Value Play: Boston Red Sox –110.
New York Mets (+156) vs. Atlanta Braves (-166), 7:05PM ET
Take a look at the under for this NL East matchup. The under is 6-2 in Tommy Hanson’s last eight starts versus the Mets and 5-2 in Dillon Gee’s last seven outings versus the Braves. The under is also 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams in Atlanta, 4-0-3 in Hanson’s last seven home starts, and 4-1-1 in the Braves’ last six home games versus a right-handed starter.
Value Play: Under 7.5.
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San Diego Padres (+121) vs. Colorado Rockies (-128), 8:40PM ET
The Padres are 4-0 in their last four games versus the Rockies and 6-2 in their last eight contests in Colorado. The Rockies, meanwhile, are 0-5 in their last five Monday games, 2-8 in their last 10 during Game 1 of a series and 0-7 in their last seven home games versus a left-handed starter.
Value Play: San Diego Padres +121
Oakland A’s (+181) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-193), 10:05PM ET
This is another game to take a long, hard look at the under. The under is 8-0 in Jered Weaver’s last eight home starts against the A’s and 14-2-2 in his last 18 starts overall versus Oakland. The under is also 5-1-2 in the last eight meetings between these two teams in Los Angeles and 4-0-2 in Weaver’s last six starts when the total is set at 6.5 or lower.
Value Play: Under 6.5.
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