2011 Home Run Champion Odds
(The Spread) – Although his contract dispute could become a major distraction, oddsmakers believe that Albert Pujols will be the 2011 Home Run champion.
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Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have made Pujols a +700 money line favorite, while Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera are all +800 to hit the most home runs in 2011.
It’s not surprising that Pujols is favored to be the 2011 Home Run champ when he finished with the most dingers in the National League last year. He hit 42 for the season, four more than Adam Dunn (+1500), five more than Joey Votto (+2000) and eight more than Carlos Gonzalez (+2000).
It is slightly surprising, however, that Jose Bautista is being offered at +1500 on the money line when he led all major leaguers with 54 long balls last season – 10 more than Pujols. That said, the 54 home runs were the most Bautista has ever hit in his career, by a long shot in fact. The most he ever hit before 2010 was 16 in 2006 when he played for the Pittsburgh Pirates, so clearly oddsmakers have adjusted his odds.
Paul Konerko (+7500) was second in the AL in home runs last year with 39, Cabrera hit 38, Mark Teixeira (+1500) hit 33 and David Ortiz (+10000) hit 32. Teixeira is also two years removed from hitting 39 so if he stays healthy, he might be a player worthy of taking a flier on this season.
Taking a look at past champions, Pujols hit 47 in 2009, one more than Fielder and two more than Howard. In 2008, Howard bested Dunn 48 home runs to 40, and in 2007, Alex Rodriguez hit 54 home runs to top Fielder’s 50.
Pujols looks like a great bet, even though he’s the favorite and sometimes the favorites don’t represent much value. In the past eight years, he’s hit at least 40 home runs six times and seeing how he’s in a contract year, he may hit 50 to impress bidding teams next season (not that he has to, he’s the best player in baseball).
Still, as Bautista proved last year and A-Rod proved a couple of years ago, it seems like every year a player comes out of nowhere to hit more home runs than any player. Look for players on the Yankees and Rockies, two teams that play in hitter-friendly parks.
2011 MLB Home Run Champion Odds
Adam Dunn +1500
Adam Lind +7500
Adrian Beltre +10000
Adrian Gonzalez +1500
Albert Pujols +700
Alex Rodriguez +3000
Andre Ethier +10000
Buster Posey +10000
Carlos Gonzalez +2000
Carlos Lee +10000
Carlos Pena +5000
Carlos Quentin +10000
Chase Utley +10000
Chris Young +10000
Colby Rasmus +10000
Dan Uggla +7500
David Ortiz +10000
David Wright +10000
Evan Longoria +3000
Hanley Ramirez +10000
Ian Kinsler +10000
Jason Heyward +4000
Jay Bruce +3000
Jayson Werth +7500
Joey Votto +2000
Jose Bautista +1500
Josh Hamilton +2500
Justin Morneau +4000
Justin Upton +10000
Kendry Morales +4000
Kevin Youkilis +10000
Mark Reynolds +2000
Mark Teixeira +1500
Matt Holliday +10000
Matt Kemp +10000
Miguel Cabrera +800
Mike Stanton +4000
Nelson Cruz +2500
Paul Konerko +7500
Pedro Alvarez +10000
Prince Fielder +800
Robinson Cano +5000
Ryan Braun +2500
Ryan Howard +800
Ryan Zimmerman +10000
Shin-Soo Choo +10000
Travis Snider +10000
Troy Tulowitzki +7500
Tyler Colvin +10000
zx Field (Any Other Player) +500
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