Nationals vs. Padres MLB Free Pick
SAN DIEGO, CA (ATS Consultants) – This is the first game of a three-game series between the Nationals and Padres. Both teams have won two straight games. Gio Gonzalez faces Clayton Richard on Tuesday at 10:05 in Petco park in San Diego.
ODDS: The oddsmakers have installed the Nationals as a -110 favorite, while the over/under total is 6.5 runs. Washington is 12-4 overall and 5-11 UNDER this season, while the Padres are 5-12 overall and 8-7 OVER.
LINE MOVEMENT: The Nats opened up as a -135 favorite and moved down to -110 at most books. The total opened at 6.5 runs and remained there in most sports books.
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PUBLIC BETTING: Of the wagers currently placed on tonight’s game, 89% of public bettors favor the Nationals. These numbers are subject to change, however, so make sure you click on the “Public Betting” link available in this paragraph to get the most up-to-date information.
MLB FREE PICK: Take the UNDER. According to the latest MLB trends, the Padres are 9-29-3 Under last 41 meetings at home in this series, 1-4 Under is 4-1 last 5 Tuesday games, 6-17-3 Under last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600, 10-25-1 Under last 36 games following an off day and 0-3-1 Under in Richard’s last 4 starts as a home underdog. Washington is 0-4 Under last 4 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower, 0-6 Under last 6 games as a road favorite, 5-16 Under last 21 games as a favorite, 8-25-1 Under last 34 games vs. a left-handed starter, 7-18-2 Under last 27 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 9-23-1 Under last 33 road games. Washington has been a great under play this year due to their lack of hitting (best power hitter Mike Morse is out) and their strong pitching. That’s been good enough for a 12-4 starter but they are 5-11 UNDER. Last year, in their last three games in San Diego, all three went way under. Richard is the type of pitcher that gives that Nats’ hitters problems, while Gio Gonzalez will be very tough on a lineup that’s not used to seeing him. He’s been lights out in his last three starts.
TUESDAY MLB FREE PICK: NATIONALS/PADRES UNDER 6.5
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