Nationals vs. Reds Free Pick
CINCINNATI, OH (ATS Consultants) – This is the first game of a three-game series. The Nationals won over their previous game over Pittsburgh, 4-2 on Thursday after losing three. Cincinnati is coming off a 2-1 win over Milwaukee on Wednesday night. Gio Gonzalez takes on Mike Leake of the Reds. The opening pitch goes at 7:10pm from Cincinnati.
ODDS: The oddsmakers have installed the Nats as a -124 favorite over the Rays. The total is 7.5 in most books. Washington comes in with a 19-12 overall record and is 12-18 Under, while Cincinnati is 16-14 overall and 12-17 Under.
LINE MOVEMENT: The Nats opened as a -120 favorite and moved to -124 at most books. The total started at 7.5 and remained there in most books.
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PUBLIC BETTING: Of the wagers currently placed on tonight’s game, 72% of public bettors favor the Nationals. These numbers are subject to change, however, so make sure you click on the “Public Betting” link available in this paragraph to get the most up-to-date information.
MLB FREE PICK: Take the under. According to latest MLB Trends, Washington is 1-4-1 Under last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 3-9 Under last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning record, 2-6 Under last 8 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150, 4-12-1 Under last 17 games as a road favorite, 8-19-1 Under last 28 road games and 1-4 Under in Gonzalez’s last 5 starts as a favorite. Cincinnati is 1-7-2 Under last 10 home games vs. a left-handed starter, 1-6-1 Under last 8 overall, 5-12-2 Under last 19 games vs. a left-handed starter and is 1-4 Under in Leake’s last 5 starts after. The Nats are struggling to score runs without Jayson Werth (wrist) and Mike Morse (lat). Gio Gonzalez is one of the top pitchers in the NL this year with a 1.72 ERA and is 3-1 (2-4 UNDER). He’s even better in his last three starts. Leake has been struggling but faces an inferior lineup. Even if he gives up 3-4 runs, Gonzalez should be strong enough to keep this way under.
FRIDAY MLB FREE PICK: NATIONALS/REDS UNDER 7.5
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