Blue Jays Win Total Prediction
Can the Toronto Blue Jays have enough pop in their bats to make another playoff run in 2017?
According to oddsmakers at BetDSI, the Blue Jays over/under for wins in 2017 has been set at 85.5. The over and under each have odds of -115. Their odds to win the 2017 World Series are listed at 30/1 currently, while their odds to win the ALCS are at 15/1.
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The Blue Jays are coming off an 89-73 record in 2016. That was good enough to earn a Wild Card spot and they then advanced to the ALDS, where they swept the Texas Rangers. In the ALCS, they lost in five games to the Cleveland Indians. John Gibbons is returning as manager for his fifth season. He is 339-309 in his first four seasons with the team, including a 10-10 postseason record. The Jays have won at least 86 games in two straight seasons.
Toronto put up 759 runs last season, which ranked fifth in the AL. They had one of the top bats in the league last year in Edwin Encarnacion, who had 42 HR with 127 RBI while hitting .263. He elected to sign with the Indians in the offseason, leaving a hole to be filled. The team added Kendrys Morales to the roster. He had 30 HR and 93 RBI last season with the Royals and had 106 RBI in 2015. The team also still has Josh Donaldson, who had 37 HR and 99 RBI in 2016 with a .284 batting average. The team also re-signed Jose Bautista to a 1-year deal in the offseason. The face of the franchise had just 22 HR with 69 RBI last season while hitting .234. It was a big dip for the veteran, who only played in 116 games.
When it comes to pitching, the Jays allowed just 666 runs in 2016, which was the fewest in the AL. J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez combined for 35 wins, with Happ going 20-4. Both had ERA’s around 3.00 and around 160 strikeouts. Marcus Stroman led the team in innings pitched, but was just 9-10 with a 4.37 ERA. Veteran arm, R.A. Dickey, moved on to the Braves. He was one of the five starters in the rotation, but the Jays should be able to replace him without much concern. In the bullpen, the team lost Joaquin Benoit, who had just a 0.38 ERA in 25 appearances last season. Jason Grilli returns after racking up 21 holds in 46 appearances. Also back is closer Roberto Osuna, who had 36 saves in 2016. He had a 2.68 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 74 innings of work.
The loss of Encarnacion should certainly hurt, but the Jays should still have a great lineup. Donaldson is still a great bat and Bautista may see a slight uptick in performance, being on a 1-year contract. The pitching staff also looks solid, with the rotation lacking any major holes and the bullpen still having a pair of lockdown arms. It may be tough for Toronto to keep pace with Boston this season, but the Jays have enough to compete for the Wild Card and push for a win total in the upper 80’s.
2017 MLB SEASON WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: TORONTO BLUE JAYS OVER 85.5