Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Prediction
Will the Brewers earn a split against the Diamondbacks with a win today at 2:10PM ET?
According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Brewers are -118 money line favorites versus the Diamondbacks, who have odds of +108 to pull off the upset in Milwaukee and earn a series victory. With Patrick Corbin set to face Jimmy Nelson in the pitching matchup, the over/under currently sits at 9 runs.
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Latest on Corbin via Rotoworld: Corbin allowed three earned runs while scattering eight hits over six innings in a win Tuesday against the White Sox. The left-hander walked one and struck out five in the 91-pitch quality start. While he has struggled on the road with a 0-3 record and 7.31 ERA in three outing away from home, he is a respectable 4-1 with a 2.63 ERA through seven home starts. The Diamondbacks are also a perfect 6-0 over his past six home assignments.
Nelson allowed four runs over five frames on Tuesday versus the Blue Jays. Kendrys Morales launched a two-run homer off of Nelson, who gave up eight hits and a walk over his five innings. It was a step backward after he put together back-to-back terrific outings. Nelson has struck out nearly a batter per inning this season but holds a pedestrian 4.20 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.
Bet Today’s Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Game
OUR PREDICTION: As noted above, the Diamondbacks have been a great bet when Corbin takes the hill…at home. When he’s pitching on the road, it’s a different story, however. The D-Backs are winless at 0-8 in his last eight road starts, are 0-5 in his last five road outings when he faces a team with a winning record, and are 1-10 in his last 11 starts when their opponent allowed two runs or less in its previous game, which Milwaukee did in its 6-1 victory yesterday at Miller Park.
Granted, the Brewers have not been successful when Nelson pitches either. They’re just 8-22 in his last 30 starts overall and winless at 0-4 in his last four home starts. But there’s an interesting trend developing with the Diamondbacks, who lost for the first time in their last six games yesterday (with Zack Greinke on the hill, no less). Since scoring eight runs against the White Sox at home on May 24, the Diamondbacks have been held to four, four, and one run in Milwaukee. They’re not swinging the bats well right now. Thus, I’m willing to bet that Corbin’s struggles continue, while Nelson corrects some of his issues at home, despite Arizona’s offensive potential.
SUNDAY MLB PREDICTION: MILWAUKEE BREWERS -118