Brewers vs. Reds Prediction
Will the Brewers and Reds play over the betting total tonight in Cincinnati at 7:10PM ET?
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Brewers are -115 on the money line to beat the Reds, who have odds of -105 to win tonight at home. With Jimmy Nelson set to face Homer Bailey in the pitching matchup, the over/under currently sits at 10 runs.
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From Rotoworld: Nelson surrendered four runs in five innings in a loss to the Braves on Friday. Coming off his first career complete game, Nelson put himself in an early hole by giving up two runs in the first inning, including a solo homer to Brandon Phillips. The Braves later tacked on two more runs in the fifth. Nelson struck out eight and walked three in the loss and now stands at 5-3 with a 3.50 ERA and 93/24 K/BB ratio in 90 innings across 15 starts on the year. He’ll try to bounce back against the Reds in his next outing.
Bailey was crushed to the tune of eight runs — all earned — in just 1 2/3 innings in a gruesome loss to the Nationals on Saturday. He was making his first start of the season after finally recovering from elbow surgery. He gave up six base hits and three walks. Eight of those nine ducks on the pond came home to roost, leaving Bailey with a 43.20 ERA and 5.40 WHIP. Those numbers can only improve when he takes the mound against the Brewers next week.
Bet Tonight’s Brewers vs. Reds Game
OUR PREDICTION: The over is 6-1-1 in Nelson’s last eight starts against the Reds, is 5-1 in his last six road outings versus Cincinnati, and has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these two teams. The over is also 9-4-3 in Nelson’s last 16 starts versus a team with a losing record and is 4-1 in Bailey’s last five starts overall.
THURSDAY MLB PREDICTION: REDS/BREWERS OVER 10