Reds vs. Padres Prediction
Will the under cash tonight when the Padres host the Reds at 10:10PM ET?
According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Padres are -116 money line favorites versus the Reds, who have odds of -105 to pull off what would be a small upset in San Diego. With Bronson Arroyo set to face Luis Perdomo in the pitching matchup, the over/under currently sits at 8.5 runs.
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Arroyo gave up four runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Cardinals on Wednesday. As usual, he gave up a home run, this time he was fortunate it was just a solo shot by Matt Carpenter. He has given up 20 longballs in his 12 starts and is on pace to break the league record for homers allowed in a season (50 by Bert Blyleven in 1986). Arroyo allowed eight base hits, issued two walks and fanned four batters. His record holds at 3-4 while his ERA ticks up to 6.25 for the season. The 40-year-old has 40 strikeouts and 19 walks in 63 1/3 innings. His rotation slot could be in jeopardy when Homer Bailey, Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan return from injury. (Rotoworld)
Perdomo was tagged for five runs in four innings by the Diamondbacks on Wednesday. Perdomo has a 13.50 ERA in his two turns against Arizona this year, compared to a 3.80 mark in his other eight starts. He isn’t due to face the Diamondbacks again in the near future, but his fantasy value is limited to NL-only leagues.
Bet Tonight’s Reds vs. Padres Game
OUR PREDICTION: The under is a perfect 5-0 in the last five meetings between these two teams and is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in San Diego. The under is also 4-1-1 in Arooyo’s last six road starts versus the Padres and is 9-4-1 in Arroyo’s last 14 starts on Monday. On the other side, the under has cashed in five of Perdomo’s last six starts versus a team with a losing record.
MONDAY MLB PREDICTION: REDS/PADRES UNDER 8.5