Brewers Win Total Prediction
Did the Milwaukee Brewers do enough this offseason to be competitive in the 2017 season?
According to oddsmakers at BetDSI, the Brewers over/under for wins in 2017 has been set at 70.5. The over has odds of -120 while the under sits at -110. Their odds to win the 2017 World Series are listed at 300/1 currently, while their odds to win the NLCS are at 130/1.
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The Brewers are coming off a 73-89 record in 2016 where they finished 30.5 games behind the Cubs for the NL Central title. Craig Counsell is set to return for his third season as manager of the team. He is 134-165 in his first two seasons as coach. The Brewers have had three losing seasons in their last four years.
Milwaukee was a team lacking in much run production last season. The Brewers scored 671 runs in 2016, which ranked fifth-fewest in the majors. The team didn’t produce a single 100-RBI hitter as Chris Carter led the team with 41 HR and 94 RBI, but he is now with the New York Yankees. Ryan Braun hit .305 and had 91 RBI with 30 HR. The Brewers were pretty good at moving on the bases, as they had 181 stolen bases as a team. Jonathan Villar led the team with 62 stolen bases while hitting .285. Hernan Perez added 34 stolen bags. The team acquired Travis Shaw during the offseason. He had 16 HR and 71 RBI with the Red Sox last season, but hit just .242. Still, he is a young player with some promise.
On the mound, the Brewers gave up 733 runs in 2016. Jimmy Nelson led the team in innings, but was just 8-16 on the mound with a 4.62 ERA. Zach Davies led the team in wins with 11 and had a 3.97 ERA. Both are back for this season. Matt Garza started just 19 games last year and was 6-8 with a 4.51 ERA. The team is hoping he can return to his 2014 form when he first joined the team had had a 3.64 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP. One arm Milwaukee can be excited about is Junior Guerra. He went 9-3 on the mound in 2016 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in his first season as a regular starter. In the bullpen, the team added Neftali Feliz in the offseason to go along with an arm like Carlos Torres, who had a sub-3.00 ERA with 20 holds in 2016. The closer role is in question as the Brewers traded Jeremy Jeffress was traded late in 2016 after picking up 27 saves. Tyler Thornburg replaced him and had a 2.15 ERA in 2016, but he is now with the Red Sox.
The Brewers didn’t seem to get any better in the offseason. Quite frankly, they are probably worse. The bullpen has some questions and the starting rotation certainly doesn’t impress. The lineup lost their most productive bat in terms of power and is relying on a lot of unproven players. Milwaukee isn’t likely to compete with the likes of the Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates. The division should keep them from a lot of wins and allow the Brewers to fall under the total.
2017 MLB SEASON WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: MILWAUKEE BREWERS UNDER 70.5