Rockies Win Total Prediction
Will the 2017 season be the one where the Colorado Rockies make a move to be a winning team?
According to oddsmakers at BetDSI, the Rockies over/under for wins in 2017 has been set at 80.5. The over carries odds of -130 while the under is listed at +100. Their odds to win the 2017 World Series are listed at 60/1 currently, while their odds to win the NLCS are at 30/1.
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The Colorado Rockies are coming off a 75-87 2016 campaign in which they finished 16 games out of the NL West race. It was actually their highest win total since 2010, but marked the sixth straight season that Colorado has finished under .500. The team elected to go in a new direction this season, cutting ties with Walt Weiss and choosing to hire Bud Black. Black was previously the manager at San Diego from 2007-15 where he went 649-713 and never made the playoffs.
Scoring runs wasn’t an issue for Colorado last season and usually isn’t. The Rockies had 845 runs in 2016, which were the most in the NL and second-most in the entire league. Nolan Arenado blew up last season, racking up 41 HR with 133 RBI while hitting .294. Carlos Gonzalez also had 100 RBI to go with 25 HR and a .298 average. The team also had one of the top hitters in the league in DJ LeMahieu, who hit .348 last season with 32 doubles and 66 RBI. The Rockies also added Ian Desmond in the offseason. He is coming off a 22-home run, 86-RBI season in 2016 with the Rangers. He also hit .285 and had 21 stolen bases.
While the lineup is strong, the pitching staff is once again a concern for Colorado. The Rockies gave up 860 runs in 2016, which was the third-most in the MLB last season. Chad Bettis was the top starters with a 14-8 record, but he had a 4.79 ERA. Tyler Chatwood also had a winning record of 12-9 while his ERA was 3.87. Jon Gray led the team in strikeouts with 185, but he was just 10-10 with a 4.61 ERA. The team attempted to improve the bullpen by adding Mike Dunn and Greg Holland. Holland didn’t pitch last season, but had 32 saves for the 2015 Royals and has 145 saves over his career with a 2.42 ERA.
The Rockies certainly have a lineup that should make it competitive, but the pitching staff hasn’t improved much. While the bullpen may be a bit stronger, getting to the bullpen with a lead is still an issue. The Rockies won’t be able to score enough runs to be a winning team this season, especially when battling the Dodgers and Giants on a regular basis. History says Colorado isn’t a winning franchise, so I say stick with the under until they can prove it.
2017 MLB SEASON WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: COLORADO ROCKIES UNDER 80.5