MLB Thursday Free Pick
TORONTO, ONTARIO (ATS Consultants) – This is the fourth game of a four-game series. The Blue Jays won the last two games of this series after losing the first game.
Luke Hochevar takes the mound for the Royals against young Henderson Alvaryez for Toronto. The final game of the series starts on Thursday at 7:07pmET from the Rogers Centre in Toronto.
ODDS: The oddsmakers have installed the Blue Jays as a -135 favorite over the Royals. The total is 10 in most books. The Royals come in with a 36-44 overall record and are 34-45 Under, while the Blue Jays are 42-40 overall and 41-36 Over.
LINE MOVEMENT: The Blue Jays opened as a -130 favorite and moved up to -135 in most books. The total started at 10 and remained there in most books.
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PUBLIC BETTING: Of the wagers currently placed on tonight’s game, 72% of public bettors favor the Blue Jays. These numbers are subject to change, however, so make sure you click on the “Public Betting” link available in this paragraph to get the most up-to-date information.
MLB FREE PICK: Take the under. According to latest MLB trends the Royals are 5-15 Under last 20 during game 4 of a series, 4-9 Under last 13 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 6-13 Under last 19 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game and 0-8 Under in Hochevar’s last 8 Thursday starts. Toronto is 1-6 Under last 7 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150, 1-5 Under last 6 Thursday games, 3-8 Under last 11 games as a home favorite. These are two young pitchers who are better than their numbers indicate. In fact, Luke Hochevar may have turned it around going 2-1 with a 1.99 ERA in his last three starts for the Royals. Alvarez should have gotten back on track after pitching well against the Angels in his last start. The Royals are probably fatigued, looking to get out of town and gearing up for All-Star break on getaway day. They don’t want a long, grueling game.
THURSDAY MLB FREE PICK: ROYALS/BLUE JAYS UNDER 10
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